"Zero" Is a Rounded Thing: What Illinois' Pay Stubs Actually Say Since 2019

The claim in the wild

Somewhere in the flood of mailers, debates and cable hits that will make up the 2026 Illinois governor's race, you will meet a number that sounds like a verdict: Illinois wages grew 0% in seven years. The line traces to a Wirepoints analysis distributed September 15, whose own summary is more careful than the headline — it says real, inflation-adjusted hourly wages in Illinois shrank about 0.02 percent a year on average from 2018 to 2025, one of only seven states to dip, and concedes that nominal paychecks did rise before inflation "made the gains basically a wash."

Headlines compress; that is their job. But when a compressed number becomes the whole argument — zero means nothing happened, therefore nothing worked — it is worth lining the claim up against the official books. The federal data here are about as boring and reliable as economic statistics get: BLS' monthly survey of payroll records, the same series economists use when they are not trying to win an election.

Illinois private hourly pay is up 28.7% since 2019 — the region's slowest

Explore chartDownload exact data

View exact chart values

geo	ahe_jan2019	ahe_jul2026	growth_pct	yoy_pct	dollar_gain
Illinois	28.43	36.6	28.7	4.4	8.17
Wisconsin	26.09	34.27	31.4	1.2	8.18
Indiana	25.3	33.23	31.3	4.1	7.93
Missouri	25.09	34.06	35.8	5.6	8.97
United States	27.72	37.42	35	3.1	9.7

What the official books say

Start with the number the headline rounds to zero. Average hourly earnings for all Illinois private-sector employees — the plain, not-seasonally-adjusted payroll measure — stood at $28.43 in January 2019, the month Governor Pritzker took office. By July 2026 the same series read $36.60. That is a gain of $8.17 an hour, or 28.7 percent (BLS State and Area Employment). A paycheck that grew by more than a quarter is many things; it is not nothing.

The more interesting story in the same table is relative. Over the identical window, the United States as a whole gained 35.0 percent on this measure, Missouri 35.8, Wisconsin 31.4 and Indiana 31.3 (BLS). Illinois finished last of the five — by about six points against the nation and a hair behind both of its northern and eastern neighbors. The claim's directional instinct, that Illinois underperformed, survives the fact-check. Its arithmetic does not.

Watch the lines rather than the endpoints, too. Illinois tracked the region closely until late 2022, then fell behind as national wage growth accelerated through 2023 and 2024 — the chart gap is a post-inflation-surge phenomenon, not a straight-line seven-year slide.

The gap opens after 2022: Illinois vs the nation and its neighbors

Explore chartDownload exact data

View exact chart values

date	illinois	us	wisconsin	indiana	missouri
2018-12	100.6	99.9	100.4	99.8	100.1
2019-01	100	100	100	100	100
2019-02	101	100.3	100.5	101.1	100.1
2019-03	100.4	100.3	100.6	101	100.2
2019-04	100.6	100.5	100.6	100.2	100
2019-05	100	100.2	100	99.9	100
2019-06	100.8	100.6	100.1	100.4	100.5
2019-07	101.3	100.5	100.5	100.7	100.7
2019-08	101.4	100.8	100.5	100.5	101.2
2019-09	102.8	102.1	102.6	102	102.7
2019-10	102	101.7	103.1	102.2	102
2019-11	102.5	101.9	103	102.3	102.5
2019-12	103.7	102.8	103.8	102.9	103.8
2020-01	103.6	103	103.6	103.8	104.6
2020-02	104.7	103.9	104.9	103.3	105.1
2020-03	103.8	104.3	104.7	102.6	105.1
2020-04	107.2	108.7	108.6	107.1	107.7
2020-05	106.3	106.9	107.3	104.9	105.8
2020-06	105.2	105	104.6	102	104.2
2020-07	104.8	105.4	104.6	103.2	104.2
2020-08	106.2	106.5	104.9	103.1	105.9
2020-09	105.4	106.3	105.4	103.3	106.5
2020-10	105.8	106.3	106.3	103.2	106.9
2020-11	107.6	107.4	106.6	104.7	107.3
2020-12	108	107.6	106.8	104.6	106.9
2021-01	107.8	108.4	106.8	104.3	106.8
2021-02	108.5	108.7	107.1	104.9	109.8
2021-03	108.3	108.3	106.8	103.8	108.7
2021-04	109.3	109.3	106.8	105.4	108.4
2021-05	110.5	110.1	107.5	106.4	110.2
2021-06	109.5	109.2	106.4	106	108.6
2021-07	110.3	110	107.3	107.4	109.6
2021-08	112.1	111.1	108.4	108.3	110.5
2021-09	112	111.5	110.2	109.4	109.8
2021-10	112.5	112.1	110.4	109.7	111.5
2021-11	112.8	112.3	111.2	110.3	112.4
2021-12	112.7	113	111.7	111.6	113.9
2022-01	114.7	115.3	113.8	115	117.5
2022-02	114	114.4	114	113.7	114
2022-03	113.9	114.7	113.8	113	112.7
2022-04	115.1	115.6	114.9	113.7	112.8
2022-05	115.7	116.2	116.2	113.8	111.8
2022-06	114.2	115.2	113	113	111
2022-07	115.1	116.2	114.3	114.4	113
2022-08	115	116.3	114.3	113.6	113.4
2022-09	115.9	117.2	116.3	114.4	114.6
2022-10	116.8	118.6	117.2	116.2	117.7
2022-11	116.9	118	117.2	115.5	117.9
2022-12	116.4	118.5	118.1	115.8	118.9
2023-01	117.1	120.5	118.1	118.4	122.4
2023-02	115.7	119.8	117.1	117.3	120.6
2023-03	115.4	120	117.6	116.3	120
2023-04	117.7	121.8	119.5	118.7	121.8
2023-05	116.1	120.7	119.1	116.8	120.8
2023-06	116.1	120.6	118.6	117.2	122.3
2023-07	118.5	122.4	120.2	118.1	123
2023-08	117.2	121.6	120.2	116.9	122.9
2023-09	118.1	122.4	123	117.9	123.3
2023-10	118.9	123.5	123.6	118.9	124.2
2023-11	117.9	122.8	123.7	118.6	124.1
2023-12	118.3	123.5	126	117.8	126.3
2024-01	118.9	125	126.9	118.3	125.9
2024-02	117.9	124.7	129.3	118.1	124.1
2024-03	117.1	125	128.1	118.3	124.1
2024-04	117	125.8	127.7	118.8	124.4
2024-05	116.7	125.6	128.9	119.1	123.5
2024-06	118	126.2	127.6	119.2	125
2024-07	118.5	126	127.3	121.2	125
2024-08	118.9	126.3	127.9	120.9	125.9
2024-09	120	127.9	128.6	122.6	128
2024-10	119.9	127.7	128.1	124.3	127.4
2024-11	120.2	128	128.6	123.9	127.9
2024-12	121.8	129.2	130.7	125.3	129.1
2025-01	122.4	129.9	130.7	126.5	129.5
2025-02	123.5	130.6	131.9	127.7	131.6
2025-03	122.9	130.9	131	126.7	130.1
2025-04	122.1	130.7	131.5	125.6	129.7
2025-05	123	130.6	130.5	125.4	129.4
2025-06	123.5	131.1	129.4	125.8	130.2
2025-07	123.4	131	129.8	126.2	128.5
2025-08	124	131.3	130.6	127.1	129.2
2025-09	124.5	132.1	132.1	128.6	129.4
2025-10	125.6	132.7	131.9	129.5	129.2
2025-11	127.6	133.9	133.2	129.9	130.6
2025-12	126.5	133.3	132.2	129.4	130
2026-01	128.1	134.6	133.3	129.1	131.8
2026-02	129.5	135.5	134.5	130.7	133.5
2026-03	128.4	135.4	134.1	130.2	133.4
2026-04	127.8	135.2	133.2	130.4	134.5
2026-05	127.5	135	132.7	129.6	134.5
2026-06	127.8	134.6	131.7	130.8	133.3
2026-07	128.7	135	131.4	131.3	135.8

The inflation asterisk is the whole ballgame

Now the part the headline gets at, badly. The same BLS tables report the national earnings series again after deflating it to 1982–84 dollars — BLS' own CPI-adjusted version of the measure. On that real series, the average US private wage is up 1.8 percent since January 2019: from 11.01 to 11.21 in 1982–84 dollars (BLS CES). Along the way it spent the better part of 2022 and 2023 below its starting point, when inflation outran raises. A 35 percent raise, squeezed through the price level, comes out a rounding error.

Illinois publishes no price index of its own in this data environment, so an exact real wage for the state cannot be computed here. What can be said, carefully: if you deflate Illinois' 28.7 percent nominal gain by the national nominal-to-real ratio, Illinois' inflation-adjusted hourly pay comes out roughly 3 percent below its January 2019 level. That is an approximation, not a BLS product — but it lands in the same neighborhood as the Wirepoints summary it started from, just with the arithmetic visible.

This is the unglamorous truth both sides of the ad war gloss over. The defenders who quote $36.60 are right and slightly beside the point; the attackers who say zero are wrong and slightly beside the point. American workers, in Illinois and nearly everywhere, traded a big nominal raise for roughly flat purchasing power.

Nationally, a 35% raise shrank to 1.8% after inflation

Explore chartDownload exact data

View exact chart values

date	nominal_index	real_index
2018-12	99.9	100.1
2019-01	100	100
2019-02	100.3	99.8
2019-03	100.3	99.3
2019-04	100.5	99
2019-05	100.2	98.5
2019-06	100.6	98.9
2019-07	100.5	98.6
2019-08	100.8	98.9
2019-09	102.1	100.1
2019-10	101.7	99.5
2019-11	101.9	99.8
2019-12	102.8	100.7
2020-01	103	100.5
2020-02	103.9	101.2
2020-03	104.3	101.7
2020-04	108.7	106.7
2020-05	106.9	105
2020-06	105	102.5
2020-07	105.4	102.5
2020-08	106.5	103.1
2020-09	106.3	102.8
2020-10	106.3	102.8
2020-11	107.4	103.9
2020-12	107.6	104.1
2021-01	108.4	104.4
2021-02	108.7	104.1
2021-03	108.3	103
2021-04	109.3	103.1
2021-05	110.1	103
2021-06	109.2	101.2
2021-07	110	101.5
2021-08	111.1	102.3
2021-09	111.5	102.3
2021-10	112.1	102.1
2021-11	112.3	101.7
2021-12	113	102
2022-01	115.3	103.3
2022-02	114.4	101.5
2022-03	114.7	100.5
2022-04	115.6	100.7
2022-05	116.2	100.1
2022-06	115.2	97.9
2022-07	116.2	98.7
2022-08	116.3	98.9
2022-09	117.2	99.5
2022-10	118.6	100.2
2022-11	118	99.8
2022-12	118.5	100.5
2023-01	120.5	101.4
2023-02	119.8	100.3
2023-03	120	100.1
2023-04	121.8	101.1
2023-05	120.7	99.9
2023-06	120.6	99.5
2023-07	122.4	100.8
2023-08	121.6	99.7
2023-09	122.4	100.2
2023-10	123.5	101.1
2023-11	122.8	100.7
2023-12	123.5	101.4
2024-01	125	102
2024-02	124.7	101.2
2024-03	125	100.7
2024-04	125.8	101
2024-05	125.6	100.6
2024-06	126.2	101.2
2024-07	126	100.9
2024-08	126.3	101
2024-09	127.9	102.2
2024-10	127.7	101.9
2024-11	128	102.2
2024-12	129.2	103.1
2025-01	129.9	102.9
2025-02	130.6	103.1
2025-03	130.9	103
2025-04	130.7	102.5
2025-05	130.6	102.3
2025-06	131.1	102.3
2025-07	131	102.1
2025-08	131.3	102.1
2025-09	132.1	102.4
2025-10	132.7	—
2025-11	133.9	104
2025-12	133.3	103.5
2026-01	134.6	104.2
2026-02	135.5	104.4
2026-03	135.4	103.3
2026-04	135.2	102.3
2026-05	135	101.5
2026-06	134.6	101.5
2026-07	135	101.8

The sharper Illinois fact: last in the neighborhood

Wages are only half a living. The other half is whether there is a job paying one. Illinois private payrolls stood at 5,186,700 in January 2019 and 5,380,400 in July 2026 — growth of 193,700 jobs, or 3.7 percent, with the level only clearing its pre-pandemic self for good in the last couple of years (BLS). Wisconsin's private payroll grew 6.4 percent over the same span, Indiana's 6.3, Missouri's 7.4.

Set the two halves side by side and Illinois occupies the same unenviable corner twice: lowest wage growth and lowest job growth among the states compared. The four points slope upward together — the faster-pay states were, if anything, the faster-hiring states over this window — which is at least an inconvenient data point for anyone arguing that Illinois' slower pay growth was the price of stronger job growth. Four states is a small sample and none of this proves anything about cause; it is a picture, not an econometric model.

One mechanical honesty note: these employment counts are not seasonally adjusted, so the Illinois line sawtooths every January. The dips are the calendar, not the economy.

Illinois private payrolls only lately passed their pre-pandemic self

Explore chartDownload exact data

View exact chart values

date	emp_thousands
2018-12	5325.1
2019-01	5186.7
2019-02	5182
2019-03	5216.6
2019-04	5273.9
2019-05	5322.7
2019-06	5367.3
2019-07	5357.9
2019-08	5361.5
2019-09	5320.8
2019-10	5338.7
2019-11	5350.2
2019-12	5341.9
2020-01	5210.2
2020-02	5211.9
2020-03	5182.5
2020-04	4521.6
2020-05	4592.5
2020-06	4762.5
2020-07	4864.3
2020-08	4907
2020-09	4902.9
2020-10	4968.4
2020-11	4941.5
2020-12	4922.6
2021-01	4820.7
2021-02	4855
2021-03	4910.9
2021-04	4964.8
2021-05	5004.6
2021-06	5068.1
2021-07	5092.4
2021-08	5094.9
2021-09	5068.9
2021-10	5147.3
2021-11	5183.8
2021-12	5197.1
2022-01	5053.9
2022-02	5092.7
2022-03	5136.7
2022-04	5197.9
2022-05	5240.1
2022-06	5287.1
2022-07	5317.3
2022-08	5322.5
2022-09	5296.4
2022-10	5310.5
2022-11	5326.5
2022-12	5305.1
2023-01	5205
2023-02	5206.7
2023-03	5243.4
2023-04	5282.3
2023-05	5319.6
2023-06	5389.9
2023-07	5362
2023-08	5357.5
2023-09	5337
2023-10	5329.1
2023-11	5342.6
2023-12	5324.7
2024-01	5182.8
2024-02	5191.4
2024-03	5235
2024-04	5274.6
2024-05	5322.7
2024-06	5365.5
2024-07	5355.4
2024-08	5349.2
2024-09	5336.3
2024-10	5337.1
2024-11	5347
2024-12	5332.9
2025-01	5196.8
2025-02	5205.6
2025-03	5231.3
2025-04	5282.8
2025-05	5333.1
2025-06	5360.7
2025-07	5366.8
2025-08	5355.6
2025-09	5321.7
2025-10	5340.4
2025-11	5323.8
2025-12	5315.7
2026-01	5193
2026-02	5186.2
2026-03	5216.4
2026-04	5276.8
2026-05	5318.4
2026-06	5368.4
2026-07	5380.4

Four states, one pattern: Illinois is lowest on both axes

Explore chartDownload exact data

View exact chart values

geo	wage_growth_pct	jobs_growth_pct
Illinois	28.7	3.7
Wisconsin	31.4	6.4
Indiana	31.3	6.3
Missouri	35.8	7.4
United States	35	—

The last twelve months complicate the story

If the seven-year race is Illinois' worst exhibit, the most recent one is its best. From July 2025 to July 2026, Illinois' private hourly pay rose 4.4 percent — ahead of the nation's 3.1 percent and well ahead of Wisconsin's 1.2 percent, though behind Missouri's 5.6 (BLS). On the indexed chart, the Illinois line spends 2025 and 2026 narrowing a gap it spent 2023 opening.

Whether that is a turnaround, a late-cycle catch-up, or just the same approximation noise in a different month is exactly the kind of question a single number cannot settle. Data through July, released on the usual monthly lag, is what the official system can currently say.

How to read a zero

The payoff of the exercise is not a scoreboard for one politician. It is a reminder of what happens to numbers in transit. "Real wages shrank 0.02 percent a year" became "wages grew 0% in 7 years," which became, by the time it reaches a mailer, the claim that paychecks did not move. Each compression is small; compounding them deletes the difference between a nominal raise eaten by inflation and no raise at all — between a policy argument about purchasing power and a factual assertion that is simply false.

The official series supports three statements at once: Illinois paychecks are 28.7 percent bigger than in January 2019; after national inflation, average American pay — and probably Illinois' — buys almost exactly what it did; and Illinois lagged every neighbor checked on both pay and jobs, though less so lately. Anyone offering you one of those sentences as the whole story is selling something.