Research
The childcare waitlist is not a missing-worker mystery
A waitlist boom, and a workforce that already came back
An Associated Press tally published on September 3 found hundreds of thousands of eligible children sitting on childcare-assistance waitlists in 23 states and the District of Columbia this spring, up from eight states in 2023. The extra federal money from the pandemic had run out in the fall of 2024. Congress did not replace it. Indiana waitlisted nearly 37,000 children, including foster families. The human details in that reporting are grim: a mother refinancing a house while her husband worked seven-day weeks; a baby who stayed in foster care because his mother could not pay for daycare even after she had done everything else the state asked.
Those stories invite a simple theory: the workers are gone. The official payroll file does not support it. In the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics, seasonally adjusted childcare employment fell from 1,048,600 in February 2020 to 676,600 in April 2020 — a collapse of more than a third in two months. By July 2023 the series had recrossed its pre-pandemic level. By July 2026 it stood at 1,091,700, only 43,100 jobs, or 4.1 percent, above February 2020. From July 2024 to July 2026, the two years in which waitlists ballooned, the national childcare payroll added a rounding error: 3,400 jobs.
That is not a disappearing industry. It is an industry that fell off a cliff, crawled back, and then sat down. Restaurant and bar jobs — another low-pay service payroll that cratered in 2020 — were only 0.5 percent above their February 2020 level by July 2026. Childcare actually recovered a bit more, in percentage terms, than food service did. Neither looks like a boom. Neither looks like a ghost town.
Childcare jobs recovered, then stalled. Restaurant jobs did too.
View exact chart values
| period | childcare_emp_thousands | childcare_emp_index_feb2020 | food_emp_index_feb2020 | food_emp_thousands | childcare_ahe | food_ahe | nursing_ahe | childcare_real_ahe | private_real_ahe | real_pay_ratio_pct | women_emp_thousands | women_share_pct | weekly_hours | weekly_earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01 | 866 | 82.6 | 88.5 | 10874.1 | 14.16 | 12.69 | 16.54 | 6.03 | 10.54 | 57.2 | 806.5 | 93.1 | 30.8 | 436.13 |
| 2015-02 | 867 | 82.7 | 88.9 | 10924.4 | 14.15 | 12.71 | 16.58 | 6.01 | 10.53 | 57.1 | 808.8 | 93.3 | 30.9 | 437.24 |
| 2015-03 | 870.4 | 83 | 89 | 10930.1 | 14.09 | 12.74 | 16.62 | 5.97 | 10.53 | 56.7 | 811.5 | 93.2 | 30.8 | 433.97 |
| 2015-04 | 873.5 | 83.3 | 89.3 | 10965.5 | 14.13 | 12.79 | 16.65 | 5.98 | 10.54 | 56.7 | 815.3 | 93.3 | 30.7 | 433.79 |
| 2015-05 | 874.8 | 83.4 | 89.5 | 10999.8 | 14.04 | 12.81 | 16.67 | 5.92 | 10.54 | 56.2 | 817.7 | 93.5 | 30.7 | 431.03 |
| 2015-06 | 877.2 | 83.7 | 89.8 | 11037.7 | 14.02 | 12.82 | 16.7 | 5.9 | 10.51 | 56.1 | 820.9 | 93.6 | 30.8 | 431.82 |
| 2015-07 | 880.2 | 83.9 | 90.2 | 11084.5 | 14.05 | 12.85 | 16.7 | 5.9 | 10.51 | 56.1 | 823.8 | 93.6 | 30.8 | 432.74 |
| 2015-08 | 870.6 | 83 | 90.4 | 11110.8 | 14.04 | 12.9 | 16.76 | 5.9 | 10.54 | 56 | 814.2 | 93.5 | 30.9 | 433.84 |
| 2015-09 | 883.4 | 84.2 | 90.8 | 11156.6 | 14.02 | 12.93 | 16.81 | 5.9 | 10.57 | 55.8 | 825.2 | 93.4 | 30.6 | 429.01 |
| 2015-10 | 886.8 | 84.6 | 91.2 | 11201.1 | 14.03 | 12.98 | 16.79 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 55.7 | 830.5 | 93.7 | 30.7 | 430.72 |
| 2015-11 | 889.3 | 84.8 | 91.5 | 11237.4 | 13.98 | 13.02 | 16.84 | 5.87 | 10.61 | 55.3 | 833.4 | 93.7 | 30.9 | 431.98 |
| 2015-12 | 893.9 | 85.2 | 91.7 | 11271.3 | 14 | 13.05 | 16.94 | 5.89 | 10.62 | 55.5 | 838 | 93.7 | 31.3 | 438.2 |
| 2016-01 | 900.2 | 85.8 | 92.1 | 11318.6 | 14.01 | 13.13 | 16.98 | 5.9 | 10.68 | 55.2 | 844.2 | 93.8 | 31.5 | 441.32 |
| 2016-02 | 904.1 | 86.2 | 92.3 | 11337.1 | 14.04 | 13.18 | 17.01 | 5.92 | 10.69 | 55.4 | 847.5 | 93.7 | 31.1 | 436.64 |
| 2016-03 | 905.5 | 86.4 | 92.5 | 11364.1 | 14.07 | 13.23 | 17.05 | 5.91 | 10.69 | 55.3 | 848.5 | 93.7 | 31.3 | 440.39 |
| 2016-04 | 905.4 | 86.3 | 92.6 | 11379.8 | 14.13 | 13.31 | 17.08 | 5.91 | 10.68 | 55.3 | 848.8 | 93.7 | 31.3 | 442.27 |
| 2016-05 | 907.3 | 86.5 | 92.8 | 11404.4 | 14.17 | 13.37 | 17.1 | 5.92 | 10.68 | 55.4 | 850 | 93.7 | 31.1 | 440.69 |
| 2016-06 | 912.5 | 87 | 93 | 11430.1 | 14.21 | 13.4 | 17.15 | 5.92 | 10.67 | 55.5 | 855.1 | 93.7 | 31.2 | 443.35 |
| 2016-07 | 914.3 | 87.2 | 93.1 | 11442.2 | 14.33 | 13.47 | 17.18 | 5.97 | 10.7 | 55.8 | 855.4 | 93.6 | 31.4 | 449.96 |
| 2016-08 | 918.6 | 87.6 | 93.4 | 11479.8 | 14.22 | 13.52 | 17.23 | 5.91 | 10.69 | 55.3 | 859.6 | 93.6 | 31.5 | 447.93 |
| 2016-09 | 915.9 | 87.3 | 94 | 11544.1 | 14.28 | 13.55 | 17.26 | 5.92 | 10.69 | 55.4 | 858 | 93.7 | 31.3 | 446.96 |
| 2016-10 | 916.8 | 87.4 | 93.9 | 11539.8 | 14.37 | 13.61 | 17.31 | 5.94 | 10.71 | 55.5 | 862.2 | 94 | 31.1 | 446.91 |
| 2016-11 | 919.2 | 87.7 | 94.1 | 11554.8 | 14.35 | 13.64 | 17.34 | 5.93 | 10.7 | 55.4 | 863.8 | 94 | 31.2 | 447.72 |
| 2016-12 | 919.2 | 87.7 | 94.2 | 11577.3 | 14.38 | 13.68 | 17.37 | 5.93 | 10.69 | 55.5 | 863.6 | 94 | 31.2 | 448.66 |
| 2017-01 | 923.2 | 88 | 94.4 | 11600.3 | 14.43 | 13.76 | 17.46 | 5.92 | 10.67 | 55.5 | 866 | 93.8 | 31.2 | 450.22 |
| 2017-02 | 928.7 | 88.6 | 94.7 | 11630 | 14.45 | 13.8 | 17.53 | 5.92 | 10.68 | 55.4 | 871.9 | 93.9 | 31.3 | 452.29 |
| 2017-03 | 932.8 | 89 | 94.9 | 11656.4 | 14.53 | 13.85 | 17.57 | 5.96 | 10.71 | 55.6 | 875.2 | 93.8 | 31.1 | 451.88 |
| 2017-04 | 936.9 | 89.3 | 95.1 | 11685.2 | 14.54 | 13.88 | 17.6 | 5.95 | 10.72 | 55.5 | 879.2 | 93.8 | 31 | 450.74 |
| 2017-05 | 941.4 | 89.8 | 95.3 | 11706 | 14.57 | 13.96 | 17.63 | 5.97 | 10.74 | 55.6 | 882.8 | 93.8 | 31.1 | 453.13 |
| 2017-06 | 947.4 | 90.3 | 95.4 | 11725.1 | 14.57 | 13.98 | 17.65 | 5.97 | 10.76 | 55.5 | 889.8 | 93.9 | 31.1 | 453.13 |
| 2017-07 | 948.9 | 90.5 | 95.7 | 11762.6 | 14.63 | 14.01 | 17.7 | 5.99 | 10.79 | 55.5 | 889.9 | 93.8 | 31.1 | 454.99 |
| 2017-08 | 952.6 | 90.8 | 95.9 | 11780.3 | 14.62 | 14.07 | 17.74 | 5.96 | 10.76 | 55.4 | 892.1 | 93.6 | 31.1 | 454.68 |
| 2017-09 | 950.3 | 90.6 | 95.9 | 11784.9 | 14.72 | 14.13 | 17.79 | 5.97 | 10.75 | 55.5 | 889.7 | 93.6 | 31.2 | 459.26 |
| 2017-10 | 948.9 | 90.5 | 95.8 | 11769.6 | 14.65 | 14.16 | 17.77 | 5.94 | 10.75 | 55.3 | 885.5 | 93.3 | 31.3 | 458.55 |
| 2017-11 | 954.5 | 91 | 96 | 11794.4 | 14.69 | 14.22 | 17.81 | 5.94 | 10.73 | 55.4 | 890.9 | 93.3 | 31.1 | 456.86 |
| 2017-12 | 957.7 | 91.3 | 96.2 | 11816.4 | 14.77 | 14.31 | 17.83 | 5.96 | 10.75 | 55.4 | 893.5 | 93.3 | 31 | 457.87 |
| 2018-01 | 959.1 | 91.5 | 96.3 | 11827.9 | 14.98 | 14.35 | 17.96 | 6.02 | 10.74 | 56.1 | 896.2 | 93.4 | 30.6 | 458.39 |
| 2018-02 | 960.4 | 91.6 | 96.4 | 11846.8 | 14.82 | 14.38 | 18.01 | 5.94 | 10.72 | 55.4 | 897.8 | 93.5 | 31 | 459.42 |
| 2018-03 | 964.3 | 92 | 96.4 | 11845.1 | 14.88 | 14.41 | 18.06 | 5.96 | 10.76 | 55.4 | 902.8 | 93.6 | 30.8 | 458.3 |
| 2018-04 | 969.1 | 92.4 | 96.4 | 11844.1 | 14.93 | 14.45 | 18.13 | 5.97 | 10.75 | 55.5 | 906.7 | 93.6 | 30.9 | 461.34 |
| 2018-05 | 971 | 92.6 | 96.5 | 11857 | 14.93 | 14.47 | 18.22 | 5.95 | 10.76 | 55.3 | 909.3 | 93.6 | 30.9 | 461.34 |
| 2018-06 | 963.5 | 91.9 | 96.7 | 11882.3 | 15.05 | 14.53 | 18.23 | 6 | 10.77 | 55.7 | 903.4 | 93.8 | 31 | 466.55 |
| 2018-07 | 963.2 | 91.9 | 96.8 | 11894 | 15.11 | 14.57 | 18.27 | 6.01 | 10.79 | 55.7 | 907.3 | 94.2 | 30.8 | 465.39 |
| 2018-08 | 972.5 | 92.7 | 96.8 | 11896.6 | 15.2 | 14.6 | 18.28 | 6.04 | 10.81 | 55.9 | 917 | 94.3 | 30.6 | 465.12 |
| 2018-09 | 977.9 | 93.3 | 96.8 | 11887.7 | 15.24 | 14.63 | 18.38 | 6.04 | 10.83 | 55.8 | 921.6 | 94.2 | 30.8 | 469.39 |
| 2018-10 | 984.3 | 93.9 | 96.9 | 11903.5 | 15.31 | 14.74 | 18.41 | 6.06 | 10.83 | 56 | 924.5 | 93.9 | 30.7 | 470.02 |
| 2018-11 | 988.3 | 94.2 | 97.1 | 11922.6 | 15.39 | 14.79 | 18.48 | 6.09 | 10.86 | 56.1 | 926 | 93.7 | 30.5 | 469.4 |
| 2018-12 | 994.6 | 94.9 | 97.4 | 11968.1 | 15.43 | 14.9 | 18.53 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 56 | 933.7 | 93.9 | 31 | 478.33 |
| 2019-01 | 1002.6 | 95.6 | 97.7 | 12002.9 | 15.5 | 14.88 | 18.61 | 6.14 | 10.92 | 56.2 | 941.3 | 93.9 | 30.6 | 474.3 |
| 2019-02 | 1008.4 | 96.2 | 97.7 | 11999.4 | 15.6 | 14.98 | 18.66 | 6.16 | 10.93 | 56.4 | 946 | 93.8 | 30.6 | 477.36 |
| 2019-03 | 1012.2 | 96.5 | 97.7 | 12000.4 | 15.6 | 14.97 | 18.71 | 6.14 | 10.92 | 56.2 | 949.9 | 93.8 | 30.8 | 480.48 |
| 2019-04 | 1016.5 | 96.9 | 97.9 | 12026.1 | 15.56 | 14.99 | 18.76 | 6.1 | 10.89 | 56 | 953.4 | 93.8 | 30.7 | 477.69 |
| 2019-05 | 1017.3 | 97 | 97.7 | 12003.3 | 15.63 | 15.03 | 18.82 | 6.12 | 10.92 | 56 | 953.4 | 93.7 | 30.9 | 482.97 |
| 2019-06 | 1017.3 | 97 | 97.7 | 11999 | 15.66 | 15.09 | 18.88 | 6.14 | 10.96 | 56 | 952.6 | 93.6 | 30.7 | 480.76 |
| 2019-07 | 1019.6 | 97.2 | 97.7 | 12006 | 15.76 | 15.15 | 18.94 | 6.16 | 10.96 | 56.2 | 954.4 | 93.6 | 30.5 | 480.68 |
| 2019-08 | 1022 | 97.5 | 98.3 | 12074.7 | 15.84 | 15.21 | 19.01 | 6.19 | 10.99 | 56.3 | 957.1 | 93.6 | 30.5 | 483.12 |
| 2019-09 | 1026 | 97.8 | 98.8 | 12138.9 | 15.85 | 15.25 | 19.05 | 6.18 | 10.98 | 56.3 | 958.7 | 93.4 | 30.5 | 483.43 |
| 2019-10 | 1032 | 98.4 | 99.2 | 12182.1 | 15.92 | 15.27 | 19.13 | 6.19 | 10.98 | 56.4 | 965.8 | 93.6 | 30.5 | 485.56 |
| 2019-11 | 1038.1 | 99 | 99.4 | 12206.8 | 16.03 | 15.32 | 19.15 | 6.22 | 10.99 | 56.6 | 971.4 | 93.6 | 30.6 | 490.52 |
| 2019-12 | 1042.9 | 99.5 | 99.5 | 12217.9 | 16.06 | 15.31 | 19.22 | 6.21 | 10.97 | 56.6 | 975.8 | 93.6 | 30.3 | 486.62 |
| 2020-01 | 1045.8 | 99.7 | 99.5 | 12218.5 | 16.1 | 15.51 | 19.26 | 6.21 | 10.97 | 56.6 | 976.1 | 93.3 | 30.3 | 487.83 |
| 2020-02 | 1048.6 | 100 | 100 | 12285 | 16.19 | 15.57 | 19.36 | 6.24 | 11.01 | 56.7 | 980.3 | 93.5 | 30.5 | 493.8 |
| 2020-03 | 1020.3 | 97.3 | 95.2 | 11695 | 16.31 | 15.32 | 19.48 | 6.32 | 11.13 | 56.8 | 955.7 | 93.7 | 30.3 | 494.19 |
| 2020-04 | 676.6 | 64.5 | 51.4 | 6317.3 | 17.42 | 15.74 | 19.96 | 6.8 | 11.73 | 58 | 632.6 | 93.5 | 29.2 | 508.66 |
| 2020-05 | 702.8 | 67 | 62.7 | 7701.7 | 17.49 | 15.77 | 20.29 | 6.84 | 11.62 | 58.9 | 660.1 | 93.9 | 30.3 | 529.95 |
| 2020-06 | 775.4 | 73.9 | 74.2 | 9117.9 | 17.47 | 15.63 | 20.24 | 6.8 | 11.43 | 59.5 | 727.9 | 93.9 | 31.1 | 543.32 |
| 2020-07 | 806.4 | 76.9 | 78.4 | 9636.6 | 17.34 | 15.51 | 20.14 | 6.71 | 11.38 | 59 | 752.1 | 93.3 | 31.7 | 549.68 |
| 2020-08 | 829.2 | 79.1 | 79.4 | 9757.2 | 17.2 | 15.6 | 20.21 | 6.63 | 11.37 | 58.3 | 772.4 | 93.2 | 32.1 | 552.12 |
| 2020-09 | 847.5 | 80.8 | 81.5 | 10007.8 | 16.99 | 15.68 | 20.28 | 6.53 | 11.35 | 57.5 | 790 | 93.2 | 32.2 | 547.08 |
| 2020-10 | 853.3 | 81.4 | 83 | 10196.1 | 17.06 | 15.74 | 20.4 | 6.55 | 11.35 | 57.7 | 794.5 | 93.1 | 32.6 | 556.16 |
| 2020-11 | 856.5 | 81.7 | 82.3 | 10108.6 | 17.05 | 15.64 | 20.57 | 6.53 | 11.36 | 57.5 | 795.9 | 92.9 | 32.7 | 557.54 |
| 2020-12 | 859.2 | 81.9 | 79.3 | 9741.3 | 17.07 | 15.61 | 20.69 | 6.51 | 11.41 | 57.1 | 799.4 | 93 | 32.7 | 558.19 |
| 2021-01 | 854.4 | 81.5 | 79.4 | 9755 | 17.05 | 15.79 | 20.62 | 6.49 | 11.39 | 57 | 798 | 93.4 | 33.2 | 566.06 |
| 2021-02 | 863.5 | 82.3 | 81.8 | 10048.5 | 17.16 | 16.04 | 20.68 | 6.51 | 11.4 | 57.1 | 804 | 93.1 | 32.1 | 550.84 |
| 2021-03 | 867 | 82.7 | 82.5 | 10132.4 | 17.13 | 16.22 | 20.64 | 6.47 | 11.33 | 57.1 | 806.9 | 93.1 | 32.4 | 555.01 |
| 2021-04 | 875.8 | 83.5 | 83.7 | 10288.2 | 17.44 | 16.5 | 20.79 | 6.54 | 11.33 | 57.7 | 813.8 | 92.9 | 32.1 | 559.82 |
| 2021-05 | 879 | 83.8 | 85.1 | 10453.1 | 17.54 | 16.7 | 20.92 | 6.54 | 11.33 | 57.7 | 819.1 | 93.2 | 31.9 | 559.53 |
| 2021-06 | 895.3 | 85.4 | 86.8 | 10663.5 | 17.73 | 17.09 | 21.17 | 6.55 | 11.28 | 58.1 | 839.1 | 93.7 | 32.2 | 570.91 |
| 2021-07 | 884.8 | 84.4 | 89.2 | 10957.4 | 17.68 | 17.27 | 21.27 | 6.5 | 11.28 | 57.6 | 824.6 | 93.2 | 32.2 | 569.3 |
| 2021-08 | 885.3 | 84.4 | 89.5 | 10997.5 | 17.8 | 17.43 | 21.55 | 6.53 | 11.29 | 57.8 | 828.2 | 93.6 | 31.9 | 567.82 |
| 2021-09 | 909.8 | 86.8 | 90 | 11056 | 18.05 | 17.59 | 21.81 | 6.59 | 11.31 | 58.3 | 848.1 | 93.2 | 31.2 | 563.16 |
| 2021-10 | 910.1 | 86.8 | 91.2 | 11200.9 | 18.31 | 17.72 | 22.08 | 6.62 | 11.26 | 58.8 | 841 | 92.4 | 31.4 | 574.93 |
| 2021-11 | 917.3 | 87.5 | 91.8 | 11272.1 | 18.41 | 17.85 | 22.22 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 58.9 | 849.8 | 92.6 | 31.5 | 579.92 |
| 2021-12 | 923.4 | 88.1 | 92.6 | 11379.1 | 18.55 | 17.95 | 22.59 | 6.61 | 11.18 | 59.1 | 856 | 92.7 | 32.9 | 610.3 |
| 2022-01 | 926 | 88.3 | 93.2 | 11445.1 | 18.74 | 17.96 | 22.73 | 6.63 | 11.18 | 59.3 | 859.6 | 92.8 | 32.1 | 601.55 |
| 2022-02 | 936.3 | 89.3 | 93.8 | 11527.2 | 18.87 | 18.05 | 22.84 | 6.63 | 11.12 | 59.6 | 867.9 | 92.7 | 33.2 | 626.48 |
| 2022-03 | 942.3 | 89.9 | 94 | 11543.1 | 18.92 | 18.22 | 22.91 | 6.58 | 11.05 | 59.5 | 873.5 | 92.7 | 33 | 624.36 |
| 2022-04 | 948.3 | 90.4 | 94.3 | 11580.9 | 18.93 | 18.33 | 22.97 | 6.56 | 11.08 | 59.2 | 878.5 | 92.6 | 32.9 | 622.8 |
| 2022-05 | 949.9 | 90.6 | 94.6 | 11621.5 | 18.96 | 18.43 | 23.07 | 6.51 | 11.02 | 59.1 | 880.9 | 92.7 | 32.8 | 621.89 |
| 2022-06 | 963.9 | 91.9 | 95.3 | 11705.5 | 19.02 | 18.53 | 23.18 | 6.45 | 10.91 | 59.1 | 902.3 | 93.6 | 32.4 | 616.25 |
| 2022-07 | 978.8 | 93.3 | 96.1 | 11810.5 | 19.08 | 18.63 | 23.28 | 6.47 | 10.97 | 59 | 909.4 | 92.9 | 32.3 | 616.28 |
| 2022-08 | 979.8 | 93.4 | 96.5 | 11860.1 | 19.26 | 18.76 | 23.37 | 6.53 | 10.99 | 59.4 | 911.6 | 93 | 32.4 | 624.02 |
| 2022-09 | 986.7 | 94.1 | 96.8 | 11895.7 | 19.48 | 18.87 | 23.45 | 6.57 | 10.99 | 59.8 | 914.6 | 92.7 | 32.4 | 631.15 |
| 2022-10 | 996 | 95 | 97.3 | 11950.3 | 19.55 | 18.96 | 23.53 | 6.56 | 10.97 | 59.8 | 919.8 | 92.3 | 32.1 | 627.56 |
| 2022-11 | 1001.3 | 95.5 | 97.5 | 11979.1 | 19.74 | 19.07 | 23.76 | 6.61 | 10.98 | 60.2 | 924.5 | 92.3 | 32.4 | 639.58 |
| 2022-12 | 1007.3 | 96.1 | 97.6 | 11986.6 | 19.79 | 19.2 | 23.89 | 6.62 | 11.02 | 60.1 | 929.3 | 92.3 | 32 | 633.28 |
| 2023-01 | 1015.3 | 96.8 | 98.2 | 12062.6 | 19.81 | 19.24 | 23.85 | 6.59 | 10.99 | 60 | 937.4 | 92.3 | 32 | 633.92 |
| 2023-02 | 1022.3 | 97.5 | 98.5 | 12096.6 | 19.78 | 19.23 | 23.91 | 6.56 | 11 | 59.6 | 943.2 | 92.3 | 32.1 | 634.94 |
| 2023-03 | 1028.8 | 98.1 | 98.6 | 12107.5 | 19.84 | 19.29 | 24 | 6.57 | 11.02 | 59.6 | 950.6 | 92.4 | 31.5 | 624.96 |
| 2023-04 | 1030.6 | 98.3 | 98.6 | 12116.1 | 19.83 | 19.46 | 24.07 | 6.55 | 11.04 | 59.3 | 953.5 | 92.5 | 32 | 634.56 |
| 2023-05 | 1033.9 | 98.6 | 98.8 | 12140.8 | 19.98 | 19.55 | 24.12 | 6.59 | 11.04 | 59.7 | 957.3 | 92.6 | 31.9 | 637.36 |
| 2023-06 | 1031.9 | 98.4 | 99 | 12166.5 | 19.77 | 19.69 | 24.23 | 6.5 | 11.08 | 58.7 | 962 | 93.2 | 32.1 | 634.62 |
| 2023-07 | 1053.8 | 100.5 | 99.3 | 12195.1 | 20.03 | 19.71 | 24.33 | 6.58 | 11.11 | 59.2 | 976.6 | 92.7 | 31.3 | 626.94 |
| 2023-08 | 1062.3 | 101.3 | 99.5 | 12221.4 | 20.19 | 19.76 | 24.4 | 6.6 | 11.07 | 59.6 | 984.6 | 92.7 | 31.7 | 640.02 |
| 2023-09 | 1062.7 | 101.3 | 99.5 | 12221.7 | 20.24 | 19.83 | 24.56 | 6.59 | 11.07 | 59.5 | 984.4 | 92.6 | 31.3 | 633.51 |
| 2023-10 | 1069 | 101.9 | 99.5 | 12223.7 | 20.29 | 19.96 | 24.65 | 6.59 | 11.08 | 59.5 | 987.2 | 92.3 | 31.3 | 635.08 |
| 2023-11 | 1078.6 | 102.9 | 99.5 | 12227.4 | 20.23 | 20.06 | 24.71 | 6.57 | 11.09 | 59.2 | 996.9 | 92.4 | 31.2 | 631.18 |
| 2023-12 | 1083.4 | 103.3 | 99.4 | 12209.9 | 20.35 | 20.07 | 24.81 | 6.59 | 11.11 | 59.3 | 1001.8 | 92.5 | 31.2 | 634.92 |
| 2024-01 | 1088.6 | 103.8 | 99.3 | 12196.6 | 20.54 | 20.14 | 24.9 | 6.63 | 11.13 | 59.6 | 1007.4 | 92.5 | 31 | 636.74 |
| 2024-02 | 1093.7 | 104.3 | 99.5 | 12219.5 | 20.47 | 20.21 | 24.99 | 6.58 | 11.1 | 59.3 | 1010.9 | 92.4 | 31.3 | 640.71 |
| 2024-03 | 1091 | 104 | 99.6 | 12239 | 20.53 | 20.29 | 25.06 | 6.57 | 11.09 | 59.2 | 1009.7 | 92.5 | 31.3 | 642.59 |
| 2024-04 | 1090.4 | 104 | 99.5 | 12220.7 | 20.71 | 20.34 | 25.12 | 6.62 | 11.1 | 59.6 | 1008.2 | 92.5 | 31.3 | 648.22 |
| 2024-05 | 1090.4 | 104 | 99.2 | 12190.7 | 20.77 | 20.42 | 25.19 | 6.63 | 11.14 | 59.5 | 1010.1 | 92.6 | 31.4 | 652.18 |
| 2024-06 | 1090.1 | 104 | 99.3 | 12202.9 | 20.89 | 20.49 | 25.36 | 6.67 | 11.18 | 59.7 | 1010.6 | 92.7 | 31.2 | 651.77 |
| 2024-07 | 1088.3 | 103.8 | 99.4 | 12208.2 | 21.06 | 20.56 | 25.31 | 6.72 | 11.19 | 60.1 | 1008.4 | 92.7 | 31.1 | 654.97 |
| 2024-08 | 1076.9 | 102.7 | 99.3 | 12204.1 | 21.06 | 20.63 | 25.43 | 6.71 | 11.21 | 59.9 | 998.7 | 92.7 | 31.3 | 659.18 |
| 2024-09 | 1091.5 | 104.1 | 99.6 | 12229.9 | 21.05 | 20.69 | 25.53 | 6.69 | 11.23 | 59.6 | 1010.9 | 92.6 | 31.3 | 658.87 |
| 2024-10 | 1093.6 | 104.3 | 99.6 | 12235.3 | 21.07 | 20.76 | 25.58 | 6.68 | 11.23 | 59.5 | 1010.5 | 92.4 | 31.4 | 661.6 |
| 2024-11 | 1091.9 | 104.1 | 99.6 | 12238.4 | 21.11 | 20.81 | 25.67 | 6.67 | 11.25 | 59.3 | 1007.8 | 92.3 | 31.2 | 658.63 |
| 2024-12 | 1094.6 | 104.4 | 99.8 | 12265.3 | 21.2 | 20.89 | 25.75 | 6.67 | 11.24 | 59.3 | 1011.6 | 92.4 | 31.3 | 663.56 |
| 2025-01 | 1094.5 | 104.4 | 99.6 | 12236.2 | 21.34 | 20.95 | 25.82 | 6.69 | 11.24 | 59.5 | 1010.3 | 92.3 | 31.2 | 665.81 |
| 2025-02 | 1094 | 104.3 | 99.3 | 12198 | 21.46 | 21.01 | 25.91 | 6.71 | 11.24 | 59.7 | 1009.7 | 92.3 | 31.2 | 669.55 |
| 2025-03 | 1095.2 | 104.4 | 99.4 | 12208.4 | 21.51 | 21.45 | 25.98 | 6.73 | 11.29 | 59.6 | 1010.1 | 92.2 | 31.4 | 675.41 |
| 2025-04 | 1098.5 | 104.8 | 99.5 | 12221.9 | 21.66 | 21.08 | 26.07 | 6.76 | 11.28 | 59.9 | 1011.3 | 92.1 | 31.1 | 673.63 |
| 2025-05 | 1096.8 | 104.6 | 99.5 | 12217.5 | 21.52 | 21.13 | 26.15 | 6.71 | 11.32 | 59.3 | 1011.1 | 92.2 | 31.2 | 671.42 |
| 2025-06 | 1097.6 | 104.7 | 99.5 | 12218.7 | 21.7 | 21.16 | 26.24 | 6.75 | 11.31 | 59.7 | 1011.4 | 92.1 | 31.2 | 677.04 |
| 2025-07 | 1096.6 | 104.6 | 99.5 | 12224 | 21.77 | 21.2 | 26.31 | 6.76 | 11.32 | 59.7 | 1011 | 92.2 | 31.1 | 677.05 |
| 2025-08 | 1096 | 104.5 | 99.7 | 12245 | 21.8 | 21.25 | 26.34 | 6.74 | 11.33 | 59.5 | 1009 | 92.1 | 31.1 | 677.98 |
| 2025-09 | 1093.9 | 104.3 | 100 | 12283.9 | 21.96 | 21.31 | 26.38 | 6.77 | 11.32 | 59.8 | 1006.6 | 92 | 31.1 | 682.96 |
| 2025-10 | 1092 | 104.1 | 100.3 | 12326.5 | 22.17 | 21.34 | 26.46 | — | — | — | 1003.8 | 91.9 | 30.9 | 685.05 |
| 2025-11 | 1097.5 | 104.7 | 100.5 | 12348.1 | 22.15 | 21.54 | 26.59 | 6.81 | 11.38 | 59.8 | 1008.2 | 91.9 | 30.9 | 684.44 |
| 2025-12 | 1099 | 104.8 | 100.5 | 12343.3 | 22.12 | 21.57 | 26.67 | 6.78 | 11.35 | 59.7 | 1008.5 | 91.8 | 30.8 | 681.3 |
| 2026-01 | 1102.1 | 105.1 | 100.7 | 12366.5 | 22.14 | 21.67 | 26.73 | 6.78 | 11.38 | 59.6 | 1012.5 | 91.9 | 31.1 | 688.55 |
| 2026-02 | 1095.9 | 104.5 | 100.3 | 12327.7 | 22.18 | 21.74 | 26.74 | 6.77 | 11.38 | 59.5 | 1005.7 | 91.8 | 30.8 | 683.14 |
| 2026-03 | 1094.2 | 104.3 | 100.6 | 12355.2 | 22.35 | 21.88 | 26.85 | 6.77 | 11.31 | 59.9 | 1003.1 | 91.7 | 30.9 | 690.62 |
| 2026-04 | 1096.7 | 104.6 | 100.6 | 12360.1 | 22.3 | 21.86 | 26.91 | 6.71 | 11.25 | 59.6 | 1007.1 | 91.8 | 30.7 | 684.61 |
| 2026-05 | 1092.2 | 104.2 | 100.8 | 12385 | 22.29 | 21.93 | 26.95 | 6.67 | 11.23 | 59.4 | 1002 | 91.7 | 30.8 | 686.53 |
| 2026-06 | 1097.4 | 104.7 | 100.7 | 12372.9 | 22.33 | 21.99 | 27 | 6.71 | 11.31 | 59.3 | 1008.8 | 91.9 | 30.7 | 685.53 |
| 2026-07 | 1091.7 | 104.1 | 100.5 | 12346.8 | — | — | — | — | 11.3 | — | — | — | — | — |
The paycheck still looks like a restaurant shift
Headcount is the easy half of the story. Pay is the half that explains why a recovered payroll can still leave parents on a list. In June 2026, the latest month with earnings in this snapshot, childcare workers earned $22.33 an hour on a seasonally adjusted basis. Food-service and drinking-place workers earned $21.99. Nursing and residential-care workers earned $27.00. The job that keeps other people in the labor force pays 34 cents more than taking orders and $4.67 less than the neighboring care industry.
That gap is not new, and it has not closed in any way that would re-staff a strained system. In February 2020, before the pandemic wrecked the industry, childcare paid $16.19 an hour. Six years and a historic inflation spike later, the raise is real in dollars and modest in rank. Childcare has stayed glued to the restaurant line on the chart. Nursing homes pulled away.
Hours make the weekly number worse. Childcare employees averaged 30.7 hours a week in June 2026, which produced average weekly earnings of $685.53. That is not a full-time wage dressed up as a career. About 92 percent of the jobs were held by women. The industry that other industries quietly depend on is still staffed as if it were a side shift.
Childcare pay still tracks restaurants, not nursing homes
View exact chart values
| period | childcare_ahe | food_ahe | nursing_ahe |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01 | 14.16 | 12.69 | 16.54 |
| 2015-02 | 14.15 | 12.71 | 16.58 |
| 2015-03 | 14.09 | 12.74 | 16.62 |
| 2015-04 | 14.13 | 12.79 | 16.65 |
| 2015-05 | 14.04 | 12.81 | 16.67 |
| 2015-06 | 14.02 | 12.82 | 16.7 |
| 2015-07 | 14.05 | 12.85 | 16.7 |
| 2015-08 | 14.04 | 12.9 | 16.76 |
| 2015-09 | 14.02 | 12.93 | 16.81 |
| 2015-10 | 14.03 | 12.98 | 16.79 |
| 2015-11 | 13.98 | 13.02 | 16.84 |
| 2015-12 | 14 | 13.05 | 16.94 |
| 2016-01 | 14.01 | 13.13 | 16.98 |
| 2016-02 | 14.04 | 13.18 | 17.01 |
| 2016-03 | 14.07 | 13.23 | 17.05 |
| 2016-04 | 14.13 | 13.31 | 17.08 |
| 2016-05 | 14.17 | 13.37 | 17.1 |
| 2016-06 | 14.21 | 13.4 | 17.15 |
| 2016-07 | 14.33 | 13.47 | 17.18 |
| 2016-08 | 14.22 | 13.52 | 17.23 |
| 2016-09 | 14.28 | 13.55 | 17.26 |
| 2016-10 | 14.37 | 13.61 | 17.31 |
| 2016-11 | 14.35 | 13.64 | 17.34 |
| 2016-12 | 14.38 | 13.68 | 17.37 |
| 2017-01 | 14.43 | 13.76 | 17.46 |
| 2017-02 | 14.45 | 13.8 | 17.53 |
| 2017-03 | 14.53 | 13.85 | 17.57 |
| 2017-04 | 14.54 | 13.88 | 17.6 |
| 2017-05 | 14.57 | 13.96 | 17.63 |
| 2017-06 | 14.57 | 13.98 | 17.65 |
| 2017-07 | 14.63 | 14.01 | 17.7 |
| 2017-08 | 14.62 | 14.07 | 17.74 |
| 2017-09 | 14.72 | 14.13 | 17.79 |
| 2017-10 | 14.65 | 14.16 | 17.77 |
| 2017-11 | 14.69 | 14.22 | 17.81 |
| 2017-12 | 14.77 | 14.31 | 17.83 |
| 2018-01 | 14.98 | 14.35 | 17.96 |
| 2018-02 | 14.82 | 14.38 | 18.01 |
| 2018-03 | 14.88 | 14.41 | 18.06 |
| 2018-04 | 14.93 | 14.45 | 18.13 |
| 2018-05 | 14.93 | 14.47 | 18.22 |
| 2018-06 | 15.05 | 14.53 | 18.23 |
| 2018-07 | 15.11 | 14.57 | 18.27 |
| 2018-08 | 15.2 | 14.6 | 18.28 |
| 2018-09 | 15.24 | 14.63 | 18.38 |
| 2018-10 | 15.31 | 14.74 | 18.41 |
| 2018-11 | 15.39 | 14.79 | 18.48 |
| 2018-12 | 15.43 | 14.9 | 18.53 |
| 2019-01 | 15.5 | 14.88 | 18.61 |
| 2019-02 | 15.6 | 14.98 | 18.66 |
| 2019-03 | 15.6 | 14.97 | 18.71 |
| 2019-04 | 15.56 | 14.99 | 18.76 |
| 2019-05 | 15.63 | 15.03 | 18.82 |
| 2019-06 | 15.66 | 15.09 | 18.88 |
| 2019-07 | 15.76 | 15.15 | 18.94 |
| 2019-08 | 15.84 | 15.21 | 19.01 |
| 2019-09 | 15.85 | 15.25 | 19.05 |
| 2019-10 | 15.92 | 15.27 | 19.13 |
| 2019-11 | 16.03 | 15.32 | 19.15 |
| 2019-12 | 16.06 | 15.31 | 19.22 |
| 2020-01 | 16.1 | 15.51 | 19.26 |
| 2020-02 | 16.19 | 15.57 | 19.36 |
| 2020-03 | 16.31 | 15.32 | 19.48 |
| 2020-04 | 17.42 | 15.74 | 19.96 |
| 2020-05 | 17.49 | 15.77 | 20.29 |
| 2020-06 | 17.47 | 15.63 | 20.24 |
| 2020-07 | 17.34 | 15.51 | 20.14 |
| 2020-08 | 17.2 | 15.6 | 20.21 |
| 2020-09 | 16.99 | 15.68 | 20.28 |
| 2020-10 | 17.06 | 15.74 | 20.4 |
| 2020-11 | 17.05 | 15.64 | 20.57 |
| 2020-12 | 17.07 | 15.61 | 20.69 |
| 2021-01 | 17.05 | 15.79 | 20.62 |
| 2021-02 | 17.16 | 16.04 | 20.68 |
| 2021-03 | 17.13 | 16.22 | 20.64 |
| 2021-04 | 17.44 | 16.5 | 20.79 |
| 2021-05 | 17.54 | 16.7 | 20.92 |
| 2021-06 | 17.73 | 17.09 | 21.17 |
| 2021-07 | 17.68 | 17.27 | 21.27 |
| 2021-08 | 17.8 | 17.43 | 21.55 |
| 2021-09 | 18.05 | 17.59 | 21.81 |
| 2021-10 | 18.31 | 17.72 | 22.08 |
| 2021-11 | 18.41 | 17.85 | 22.22 |
| 2021-12 | 18.55 | 17.95 | 22.59 |
| 2022-01 | 18.74 | 17.96 | 22.73 |
| 2022-02 | 18.87 | 18.05 | 22.84 |
| 2022-03 | 18.92 | 18.22 | 22.91 |
| 2022-04 | 18.93 | 18.33 | 22.97 |
| 2022-05 | 18.96 | 18.43 | 23.07 |
| 2022-06 | 19.02 | 18.53 | 23.18 |
| 2022-07 | 19.08 | 18.63 | 23.28 |
| 2022-08 | 19.26 | 18.76 | 23.37 |
| 2022-09 | 19.48 | 18.87 | 23.45 |
| 2022-10 | 19.55 | 18.96 | 23.53 |
| 2022-11 | 19.74 | 19.07 | 23.76 |
| 2022-12 | 19.79 | 19.2 | 23.89 |
| 2023-01 | 19.81 | 19.24 | 23.85 |
| 2023-02 | 19.78 | 19.23 | 23.91 |
| 2023-03 | 19.84 | 19.29 | 24 |
| 2023-04 | 19.83 | 19.46 | 24.07 |
| 2023-05 | 19.98 | 19.55 | 24.12 |
| 2023-06 | 19.77 | 19.69 | 24.23 |
| 2023-07 | 20.03 | 19.71 | 24.33 |
| 2023-08 | 20.19 | 19.76 | 24.4 |
| 2023-09 | 20.24 | 19.83 | 24.56 |
| 2023-10 | 20.29 | 19.96 | 24.65 |
| 2023-11 | 20.23 | 20.06 | 24.71 |
| 2023-12 | 20.35 | 20.07 | 24.81 |
| 2024-01 | 20.54 | 20.14 | 24.9 |
| 2024-02 | 20.47 | 20.21 | 24.99 |
| 2024-03 | 20.53 | 20.29 | 25.06 |
| 2024-04 | 20.71 | 20.34 | 25.12 |
| 2024-05 | 20.77 | 20.42 | 25.19 |
| 2024-06 | 20.89 | 20.49 | 25.36 |
| 2024-07 | 21.06 | 20.56 | 25.31 |
| 2024-08 | 21.06 | 20.63 | 25.43 |
| 2024-09 | 21.05 | 20.69 | 25.53 |
| 2024-10 | 21.07 | 20.76 | 25.58 |
| 2024-11 | 21.11 | 20.81 | 25.67 |
| 2024-12 | 21.2 | 20.89 | 25.75 |
| 2025-01 | 21.34 | 20.95 | 25.82 |
| 2025-02 | 21.46 | 21.01 | 25.91 |
| 2025-03 | 21.51 | 21.45 | 25.98 |
| 2025-04 | 21.66 | 21.08 | 26.07 |
| 2025-05 | 21.52 | 21.13 | 26.15 |
| 2025-06 | 21.7 | 21.16 | 26.24 |
| 2025-07 | 21.77 | 21.2 | 26.31 |
| 2025-08 | 21.8 | 21.25 | 26.34 |
| 2025-09 | 21.96 | 21.31 | 26.38 |
| 2025-10 | 22.17 | 21.34 | 26.46 |
| 2025-11 | 22.15 | 21.54 | 26.59 |
| 2025-12 | 22.12 | 21.57 | 26.67 |
| 2026-01 | 22.14 | 21.67 | 26.73 |
| 2026-02 | 22.18 | 21.74 | 26.74 |
| 2026-03 | 22.35 | 21.88 | 26.85 |
| 2026-04 | 22.3 | 21.86 | 26.91 |
| 2026-05 | 22.29 | 21.93 | 26.95 |
| 2026-06 | 22.33 | 21.99 | 27 |
Three caring jobs, three paychecks
View exact chart values
| industry | hourly_pay_dollars |
|---|---|
| Food services and drinking places | 21.99 |
| Child care services | 22.33 |
| Nursing and residential care | 27 |
In real terms, a childcare hour is still about 59 cents on the private-sector dollar
Nominal raises can hide a shrinking relative wage. BLS also publishes average hourly earnings in 1982–84 dollars. On that footing, childcare paid $6.71 in June 2026 against $11.31 for all private employees — 59.3 percent of the private-sector real hourly wage. In February 2020 the ratio was 56.7 percent. The gap narrowed by a couple of percentage points. It did not become a living.
The pandemic months briefly made the ratio look better, because so many lower-paid workers left the payroll and because the remaining hours got weird. That was composition, not a raise. Once the jobs came back, childcare settled back into a band around 59 to 60 percent of private-sector real pay. If the country is waiting for market wages alone to create extra slots for the children on those lists, the official file says: keep waiting.
None of this proves that higher pay would fill every vacancy, and it does not measure quality, licensing, or the cost of renting a classroom. It does show that the constraint is not a vanished headcount. The United States is trying to run a childcare system on restaurant wages and 31-hour weeks, then acting surprised when eligible families cannot buy a slot even with a voucher in hand.
A childcare hour is still worth about 59 cents on the private-sector dollar
View exact chart values
| period | childcare_real_ahe | private_real_ahe | ratio_pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01 | 6.03 | 10.54 | 57.2 |
| 2015-02 | 6.01 | 10.53 | 57.1 |
| 2015-03 | 5.97 | 10.53 | 56.7 |
| 2015-04 | 5.98 | 10.54 | 56.7 |
| 2015-05 | 5.92 | 10.54 | 56.2 |
| 2015-06 | 5.9 | 10.51 | 56.1 |
| 2015-07 | 5.9 | 10.51 | 56.1 |
| 2015-08 | 5.9 | 10.54 | 56 |
| 2015-09 | 5.9 | 10.57 | 55.8 |
| 2015-10 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 55.7 |
| 2015-11 | 5.87 | 10.61 | 55.3 |
| 2015-12 | 5.89 | 10.62 | 55.5 |
| 2016-01 | 5.9 | 10.68 | 55.2 |
| 2016-02 | 5.92 | 10.69 | 55.4 |
| 2016-03 | 5.91 | 10.69 | 55.3 |
| 2016-04 | 5.91 | 10.68 | 55.3 |
| 2016-05 | 5.92 | 10.68 | 55.4 |
| 2016-06 | 5.92 | 10.67 | 55.5 |
| 2016-07 | 5.97 | 10.7 | 55.8 |
| 2016-08 | 5.91 | 10.69 | 55.3 |
| 2016-09 | 5.92 | 10.69 | 55.4 |
| 2016-10 | 5.94 | 10.71 | 55.5 |
| 2016-11 | 5.93 | 10.7 | 55.4 |
| 2016-12 | 5.93 | 10.69 | 55.5 |
| 2017-01 | 5.92 | 10.67 | 55.5 |
| 2017-02 | 5.92 | 10.68 | 55.4 |
| 2017-03 | 5.96 | 10.71 | 55.6 |
| 2017-04 | 5.95 | 10.72 | 55.5 |
| 2017-05 | 5.97 | 10.74 | 55.6 |
| 2017-06 | 5.97 | 10.76 | 55.5 |
| 2017-07 | 5.99 | 10.79 | 55.5 |
| 2017-08 | 5.96 | 10.76 | 55.4 |
| 2017-09 | 5.97 | 10.75 | 55.5 |
| 2017-10 | 5.94 | 10.75 | 55.3 |
| 2017-11 | 5.94 | 10.73 | 55.4 |
| 2017-12 | 5.96 | 10.75 | 55.4 |
| 2018-01 | 6.02 | 10.74 | 56.1 |
| 2018-02 | 5.94 | 10.72 | 55.4 |
| 2018-03 | 5.96 | 10.76 | 55.4 |
| 2018-04 | 5.97 | 10.75 | 55.5 |
| 2018-05 | 5.95 | 10.76 | 55.3 |
| 2018-06 | 6 | 10.77 | 55.7 |
| 2018-07 | 6.01 | 10.79 | 55.7 |
| 2018-08 | 6.04 | 10.81 | 55.9 |
| 2018-09 | 6.04 | 10.83 | 55.8 |
| 2018-10 | 6.06 | 10.83 | 56 |
| 2018-11 | 6.09 | 10.86 | 56.1 |
| 2018-12 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 56 |
| 2019-01 | 6.14 | 10.92 | 56.2 |
| 2019-02 | 6.16 | 10.93 | 56.4 |
| 2019-03 | 6.14 | 10.92 | 56.2 |
| 2019-04 | 6.1 | 10.89 | 56 |
| 2019-05 | 6.12 | 10.92 | 56 |
| 2019-06 | 6.14 | 10.96 | 56 |
| 2019-07 | 6.16 | 10.96 | 56.2 |
| 2019-08 | 6.19 | 10.99 | 56.3 |
| 2019-09 | 6.18 | 10.98 | 56.3 |
| 2019-10 | 6.19 | 10.98 | 56.4 |
| 2019-11 | 6.22 | 10.99 | 56.6 |
| 2019-12 | 6.21 | 10.97 | 56.6 |
| 2020-01 | 6.21 | 10.97 | 56.6 |
| 2020-02 | 6.24 | 11.01 | 56.7 |
| 2020-03 | 6.32 | 11.13 | 56.8 |
| 2020-04 | 6.8 | 11.73 | 58 |
| 2020-05 | 6.84 | 11.62 | 58.9 |
| 2020-06 | 6.8 | 11.43 | 59.5 |
| 2020-07 | 6.71 | 11.38 | 59 |
| 2020-08 | 6.63 | 11.37 | 58.3 |
| 2020-09 | 6.53 | 11.35 | 57.5 |
| 2020-10 | 6.55 | 11.35 | 57.7 |
| 2020-11 | 6.53 | 11.36 | 57.5 |
| 2020-12 | 6.51 | 11.41 | 57.1 |
| 2021-01 | 6.49 | 11.39 | 57 |
| 2021-02 | 6.51 | 11.4 | 57.1 |
| 2021-03 | 6.47 | 11.33 | 57.1 |
| 2021-04 | 6.54 | 11.33 | 57.7 |
| 2021-05 | 6.54 | 11.33 | 57.7 |
| 2021-06 | 6.55 | 11.28 | 58.1 |
| 2021-07 | 6.5 | 11.28 | 57.6 |
| 2021-08 | 6.53 | 11.29 | 57.8 |
| 2021-09 | 6.59 | 11.31 | 58.3 |
| 2021-10 | 6.62 | 11.26 | 58.8 |
| 2021-11 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 58.9 |
| 2021-12 | 6.61 | 11.18 | 59.1 |
| 2022-01 | 6.63 | 11.18 | 59.3 |
| 2022-02 | 6.63 | 11.12 | 59.6 |
| 2022-03 | 6.58 | 11.05 | 59.5 |
| 2022-04 | 6.56 | 11.08 | 59.2 |
| 2022-05 | 6.51 | 11.02 | 59.1 |
| 2022-06 | 6.45 | 10.91 | 59.1 |
| 2022-07 | 6.47 | 10.97 | 59 |
| 2022-08 | 6.53 | 10.99 | 59.4 |
| 2022-09 | 6.57 | 10.99 | 59.8 |
| 2022-10 | 6.56 | 10.97 | 59.8 |
| 2022-11 | 6.61 | 10.98 | 60.2 |
| 2022-12 | 6.62 | 11.02 | 60.1 |
| 2023-01 | 6.59 | 10.99 | 60 |
| 2023-02 | 6.56 | 11 | 59.6 |
| 2023-03 | 6.57 | 11.02 | 59.6 |
| 2023-04 | 6.55 | 11.04 | 59.3 |
| 2023-05 | 6.59 | 11.04 | 59.7 |
| 2023-06 | 6.5 | 11.08 | 58.7 |
| 2023-07 | 6.58 | 11.11 | 59.2 |
| 2023-08 | 6.6 | 11.07 | 59.6 |
| 2023-09 | 6.59 | 11.07 | 59.5 |
| 2023-10 | 6.59 | 11.08 | 59.5 |
| 2023-11 | 6.57 | 11.09 | 59.2 |
| 2023-12 | 6.59 | 11.11 | 59.3 |
| 2024-01 | 6.63 | 11.13 | 59.6 |
| 2024-02 | 6.58 | 11.1 | 59.3 |
| 2024-03 | 6.57 | 11.09 | 59.2 |
| 2024-04 | 6.62 | 11.1 | 59.6 |
| 2024-05 | 6.63 | 11.14 | 59.5 |
| 2024-06 | 6.67 | 11.18 | 59.7 |
| 2024-07 | 6.72 | 11.19 | 60.1 |
| 2024-08 | 6.71 | 11.21 | 59.9 |
| 2024-09 | 6.69 | 11.23 | 59.6 |
| 2024-10 | 6.68 | 11.23 | 59.5 |
| 2024-11 | 6.67 | 11.25 | 59.3 |
| 2024-12 | 6.67 | 11.24 | 59.3 |
| 2025-01 | 6.69 | 11.24 | 59.5 |
| 2025-02 | 6.71 | 11.24 | 59.7 |
| 2025-03 | 6.73 | 11.29 | 59.6 |
| 2025-04 | 6.76 | 11.28 | 59.9 |
| 2025-05 | 6.71 | 11.32 | 59.3 |
| 2025-06 | 6.75 | 11.31 | 59.7 |
| 2025-07 | 6.76 | 11.32 | 59.7 |
| 2025-08 | 6.74 | 11.33 | 59.5 |
| 2025-09 | 6.77 | 11.32 | 59.8 |
| 2025-11 | 6.81 | 11.38 | 59.8 |
| 2025-12 | 6.78 | 11.35 | 59.7 |
| 2026-01 | 6.78 | 11.38 | 59.6 |
| 2026-02 | 6.77 | 11.38 | 59.5 |
| 2026-03 | 6.77 | 11.31 | 59.9 |
| 2026-04 | 6.71 | 11.25 | 59.6 |
| 2026-05 | 6.67 | 11.23 | 59.4 |
| 2026-06 | 6.71 | 11.31 | 59.3 |
A few large states, the same July, seven years later
National totals can hide a state that actually hollowed out. The state-and-area employment file is patchier. Indiana, the waitlist exhibit in the AP story, does not have a published childcare payroll series in this extract, so it cannot be substituted with a national number and called local evidence. Where monthly not-seasonally-adjusted July figures do exist, they do not show a collapse either.
Texas had 93,000 childcare jobs in July 2019 and 98,700 in July 2026, up 6.1 percent. New York went from 70,800 to 73,800, up 4.2 percent. Massachusetts, the outlier of this small set, rose from 27,200 to 32,300, or 18.7 percent. Those are July-to-July comparisons on purpose: school-year childcare has a seasonal pulse, and these series are not seasonally adjusted.
California publishes an annual average rather than a usable monthly extract here. That annual series fell from 77,900 jobs in 2019 to 63,900 in 2020, then climbed to 86,900 in 2025 — 11.6 percent above 2019. A larger annual average in the biggest state is not a waitlist solution. It is further evidence that the country did not misplace several hundred thousand childcare workers and forget to look in the CES file.
The honest limit is the one the payroll survey always carries. These counts are jobs on employer payrolls, not the number of children served, not the number of subsidized slots, and not home-based care that never shows up as a firm. They also cannot tell you whether a recovered job is the same job: the same hours, the same neighborhood, the same infant room. What they can tell you is narrower and still useful. If the political argument is that childcare assistance failed because the workers left, the official books say the workers mostly came back. They came back to $22 an hour. The waitlists grew anyway.
Where BLS still publishes the series, July childcare payrolls are only modestly larger
View exact chart values
| state | july_2019_thousands | july_2026_thousands | change_thousands | pct_change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 93 | 98.7 | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| New York | 70.8 | 73.8 | 3 | 4.2 |
| Massachusetts | 27.2 | 32.3 | 5.1 | 18.7 |
Sources and methods
This is retrospective enrichment using pinned catalogue snapshots, not a reconstruction of what was knowable on the edition date of 2026-09-03. Research calculations were run on 2026-09-11 against BLS CES snapshot bls-ce-snapshot-2026-08-24 (normalized run 2026-08-24T10-07-20Z) and BLS SAE snapshot bls-sm-snapshot-2026-08-24 (normalized run 2026-08-24T09-40-09Z).
National series are CES, seasonally adjusted, United States, monthly, January 2015 through July 2026 for employment (CES6562440001 and CES7072200001). Average hourly earnings, weekly hours, weekly earnings, women employees, and 1982–84-dollar earnings for childcare run through June 2026 in this snapshot (latest overlapping earnings month used for pay comparisons). Food-service and nursing hourly earnings are the matching CES all-employee series.
State figures are SAE, not seasonally adjusted. Texas, New York, and Massachusetts comparisons use July 2019 versus July 2026 to avoid mixing school-year seasonality. California is an annual average through 2025 because the monthly extract for that series returned no observations. Indiana has no childcare SAE series in the extracts used here; no national figure was treated as a stand-in for Indiana.
Employment is in thousands of jobs. Average hourly earnings are dollars per hour for all employees, not household averages or median wages. Real earnings are 1982–84 dollars as published by BLS, not a custom deflator. Missing observations were not treated as zero. The first observation was kept when a period repeated. CES and SAE count payroll jobs at establishments, not children served, subsidized slots, or unincorporated home-based care. No causal effect of waitlists, wages, or pandemic aid is inferred from these descriptive comparisons. Later BLS revisions may differ from this vintage.
Research completed 2026-09-11, for the September 3, 2026 news edition. This is retrospective analysis, not a reconstruction of information available that day.