The cattle herd shrank. The packing plants did not.

A dinner-staple shortage, and a payroll that does not match the headline

Tyson Foods said last week that it will close beef plants in Illinois and Utah and look to sell another in Washington, citing what it called one of the most historic cattle shortages the country has ever seen. USDA figures in that reporting put the U.S. herd at about 86.2 million cattle and calves at the start of 2026, the smallest since the early 1950s and more than eight million animals below 2019. Choice beef’s retail value rose from about $8.51 a pound in August 2024 to $10.49 in July 2026. Drought, ranchers selling cows they would otherwise have kept, and a biological clock that does not reset on a news cycle are the usual explanations, as LiveNOW from FOX laid out.

Those facts are about animals and grocery prices. They are not, by themselves, a reading of the plants that turn animals into boxed beef. The Current Employment Statistics program at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics counts seasonally adjusted payroll jobs, weekly hours and hourly earnings in animal slaughtering and processing. The series cannot see the cattle inventory. They can show whether the packing-house labor market has already contracted the way a 75-year herd low would lead a reader to expect.

It has not, at least not in the headline industry total. In June 2026, the latest month in the meat series in this snapshot, animal slaughtering and processing employed 563,300 people. That is 6.0 percent more than in June 2019, when the USDA herd figure cited this week was still near 95 million, and it sits just below a series peak of 567,900 in February 2026. The calendar-year average has climbed from about 427,000 jobs in 1990 to 560,000 in 2025; the January–June 2026 average is 565,000. The shortage at the ranch has not, so far, shown up as an emptying of the packing floor.

U.S. animal slaughtering and processing jobs, 1990–2026

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year	employment_thousands	months
1990	427.41	12
1991	430.59	12
1992	437.72	12
1993	447.88	12
1994	455.78	12
1995	476.05	12
1996	486.29	12
1997	491.21	12
1998	498.97	12
1999	505.42	12
2000	506.93	12
2001	515.85	12
2002	516.88	12
2003	515.53	12
2004	505.57	12
2005	504.14	12
2006	505.98	12
2007	507.82	12
2008	510.12	12
2009	497.39	12
2010	489.43	12
2011	486.37	12
2012	483.53	12
2013	482.39	12
2014	480.96	12
2015	485.78	12
2016	495.98	12
2017	512.12	12
2018	521.65	12
2019	531.84	12
2020	537	12
2021	524.87	12
2022	532.03	12
2023	548.58	12
2024	554.74	12
2025	559.8	12
2026	565.42	6

The stall is on the red-meat line

The useful split is inside the industry. BLS publishes a narrower series for animal slaughtering except poultry — cattle and hogs, not a cattle-only count — and a separate series for poultry processing. In June 2026, the except-poultry slaughter line employed 143,900 people, 100 jobs below June 2019, a change of -0.1 percent. Poultry processing employed 254,000, up 4.3 percent over the same seven years. Indexed to June 2019, poultry is at 104; the red-meat slaughter line is at 100.

Over the past year the gap is sharper. From June 2025 to June 2026, except-poultry slaughtering fell 1.2 percent while poultry processing rose 0.6 percent. The except-poultry series peaked much earlier, at 157,600 jobs in July 2001. It has never returned to that level. That is the opposite of a sudden 2026 collapse, and it is also the opposite of a boom. The plants most exposed to cattle and hogs have been the ones standing still while chicken plants and the rest of food manufacturing kept hiring.

None of this proves that the drought caused the stall, or that Tyson’s announced closings will leave the June numbers untouched. Those closings were news in mid-August; the CES meat series here end in June. Hogs sit in the same except-poultry line as cattle. Further processing, not just kill-floor work, sits in the broader slaughtering-and-processing total. The comparison is still the cleanest one the payroll data allow: the cattle story is a red-meat story, and the red-meat slaughter payroll is the one that has stopped growing.

Red-meat slaughter jobs stalled; poultry processing kept growing

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year_month	red_meat_index	poultry_index	red_meat_thousands	poultry_thousands
2015-01	93.26	90.93	134.3	221.5
2015-02	93.47	90.89	134.6	221.4
2015-03	93.47	92.12	134.6	224.4
2015-04	93.54	91.22	134.7	222.2
2015-05	94.1	91.54	135.5	223
2015-06	93.54	92.04	134.7	224.2
2015-07	93.54	91.79	134.7	223.6
2015-08	93.68	91.79	134.9	223.6
2015-09	93.68	91.58	134.9	223.1
2015-10	93.47	91.87	134.6	223.8
2015-11	93.54	92.57	134.7	225.5
2015-12	93.47	92.86	134.6	226.2
2016-01	93.54	93.14	134.7	226.9
2016-02	94.1	93.43	135.5	227.6
2016-03	93.19	93.27	134.2	227.2
2016-04	93.19	93.35	134.2	227.4
2016-05	93.4	93.56	134.5	227.9
2016-06	93.68	94.05	134.9	229.1
2016-07	93.82	94.17	135.1	229.4
2016-08	94.03	94.33	135.4	229.8
2016-09	93.96	94.75	135.3	230.8
2016-10	94.31	94.91	135.8	231.2
2016-11	94.44	95.36	136	232.3
2016-12	94.86	95.81	136.6	233.4
2017-01	95.35	96.39	137.3	234.8
2017-02	95.28	96.76	137.2	235.7
2017-03	95.9	96.67	138.1	235.5
2017-04	96.39	96.96	138.8	236.2
2017-05	96.32	97.5	138.7	237.5
2017-06	96.32	97.82	138.7	238.3
2017-07	96.81	98.23	139.4	239.3
2017-08	96.32	98.15	138.7	239.1
2017-09	97.29	98.11	140.1	239
2017-10	97.01	97.82	139.7	238.3
2017-11	96.25	97.5	138.6	237.5
2017-12	97.78	97.82	140.8	238.3
2018-01	97.92	97.41	141	237.3
2018-02	98.06	97.99	141.2	238.7
2018-03	97.85	98.4	140.9	239.7
2018-04	97.71	98.77	140.7	240.6
2018-05	97.78	99.55	140.8	242.5
2018-06	98.19	99.14	141.4	241.5
2018-07	98.26	98.81	141.5	240.7
2018-08	98.4	98.93	141.7	241
2018-09	99.1	99.88	142.7	243.3
2018-10	99.58	99.34	143.4	242
2018-11	100.42	99.01	144.6	241.2
2018-12	99.86	98.89	143.8	240.9
2019-01	99.65	99.18	143.5	241.6
2019-02	99.58	99.3	143.4	241.9
2019-03	99.51	99.51	143.3	242.4
2019-04	98.68	99.79	142.1	243.1
2019-05	99.65	99.88	143.5	243.3
2019-06	100	100	144	243.6
2019-07	99.38	99.92	143.1	243.4
2019-08	99.24	101.11	142.9	246.3
2019-09	99.1	101.48	142.7	247.2
2019-10	99.1	102.59	142.7	249.9
2019-11	99.72	103.24	143.6	251.5
2019-12	99.1	101.81	142.7	248
2020-01	99.72	101.03	143.6	246.1
2020-02	100.62	101.4	144.9	247
2020-03	101.25	101.31	145.8	246.8
2020-04	101.87	100.41	146.7	244.6
2020-05	102.22	100.33	147.2	244.4
2020-06	102.08	99.51	147	242.4
2020-07	102.22	99.67	147.2	242.8
2020-08	103.06	99.63	148.4	242.7
2020-09	102.78	98.69	148	240.4
2020-10	102.99	98.19	148.3	239.2
2020-11	102.64	98.15	147.8	239.1
2020-12	102.92	97.62	148.2	237.8
2021-01	102.85	96.92	148.1	236.1
2021-02	102.85	96.55	148.1	235.2
2021-03	103.47	95.89	149	233.6
2021-04	102.22	94.87	147.2	231.1
2021-05	100.9	93.88	145.3	228.7
2021-06	100.14	93.47	144.2	227.7
2021-07	100.83	93.31	145.2	227.3
2021-08	100.21	92.94	144.3	226.4
2021-09	99.24	92.28	142.9	224.8
2021-10	100.42	92.53	144.6	225.4
2021-11	101.46	93.43	146.1	227.6
2021-12	100.62	94.13	144.9	229.3
2022-01	99.79	93.51	143.7	227.8
2022-02	99.24	93.56	142.9	227.9
2022-03	99.24	93.1	142.9	226.8
2022-04	99.51	93.1	143.3	226.8
2022-05	100.83	93.6	145.2	228
2022-06	101.32	94.38	145.9	229.9
2022-07	101.81	95.24	146.6	232
2022-08	102.08	95.4	147	232.4
2022-09	102.99	95.94	148.3	233.7
2022-10	100.9	96.18	145.3	234.3
2022-11	101.32	95.73	145.9	233.2
2022-12	102.08	95.77	147	233.3
2023-01	102.29	96.92	147.3	236.1
2023-02	102.99	97.25	148.3	236.9
2023-03	102.99	97.58	148.3	237.7
2023-04	102.92	98.36	148.2	239.6
2023-05	102.99	98.48	148.3	239.9
2023-06	103.26	98.77	148.7	240.6
2023-07	103.47	99.43	149	242.2
2023-08	103.54	99.3	149.1	241.9
2023-09	103.26	99.59	148.7	242.6
2023-10	103.54	99.26	149.1	241.8
2023-11	103.82	99.06	149.5	241.3
2023-12	103.61	99.67	149.2	242.8
2024-01	104.1	99.43	149.9	242.2
2024-02	104.31	99.1	150.2	241.4
2024-03	104.44	99.38	150.4	242.1
2024-04	104.65	99.75	150.7	243
2024-05	104.1	100.57	149.9	245
2024-06	103.96	100.12	149.7	243.9
2024-07	103.47	99.96	149	243.5
2024-08	103.68	100.37	149.3	244.5
2024-09	103.19	100.7	148.6	245.3
2024-10	102.71	100.94	147.9	245.9
2024-11	102.57	101.35	147.7	246.9
2024-12	102.01	101.6	146.9	247.5
2025-01	102.29	101.85	147.3	248.1
2025-02	101.32	102.01	145.9	248.5
2025-03	101.81	102.71	146.6	250.2
2025-04	102.22	102.91	147.2	250.7
2025-05	101.81	103.37	146.6	251.8
2025-06	101.11	103.65	145.6	252.5
2025-07	100.97	102.79	145.4	250.4
2025-08	100.42	102.91	144.6	250.7
2025-09	100.14	102.96	144.2	250.8
2025-10	100.21	103.61	144.3	252.4
2025-11	100.83	103.94	145.2	253.2
2025-12	100.83	104.02	145.2	253.4
2026-01	101.39	104.31	146	254.1
2026-02	101.39	104.76	146	255.2
2026-03	100.69	104.56	145	254.7
2026-04	100.83	104.56	145.2	254.7
2026-05	100.42	104.31	144.6	254.1
2026-06	99.93	104.27	143.9	254

Since 2019, poultry and food plants added jobs; red-meat slaughter did not

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industry	pct_change
Animal, except poultry, slaughtering	-0.07
Poultry processing	4.27
Animal slaughtering and processing	5.98
Food manufacturing	7.74
Total private	5.71

Shorter weeks, higher pay, same plants

If the herd is tight, one way plants cope without cutting headcount is to run fewer hours. Average weekly hours for all employees in animal slaughtering and processing were 40.9 in June 2026, down from 42.8 in June 2019, a 4.4 percent decline. Hours had spent 2018 through early 2020 in the low 43s. They have not gone back. That is not a small rounding error on a 40-hour week; it is more than a lost hour and a half for a typical employee, which is a quieter form of capacity reduction than a padlocked gate.

Pay moved the other way. Average hourly earnings in slaughtering and processing were $25.72 in June 2026, up 42 percent from $18.11 in June 2019. All private-sector jobs rose 34 percent over the same stretch, from $27.97 to $37.60. Packing-plant pay is still well below the private average — 68.4 cents on the dollar in June 2026, versus 64.7 cents in June 2019 — but the gap narrowed. A tight cattle market and a tight labor market can raise wages even when the kill line is not adding people. The payrolls do not separate those forces.

Put the pieces next to food manufacturing as a whole and the pattern holds. Food-manufacturing employment rose 7.7 percent from June 2019 to June 2026, faster than slaughtering and processing and faster than all private jobs (5.7 percent). Slaughtering and processing’s share of food-manufacturing jobs was 31.8 percent in June 2026, a hair below 32.3 percent in June 2019. The packing industry is not shrinking inside the grocery factory system. The cattle-and-hog slaughter line is the part that looks like a shortage.

Packing-plant workweeks are shorter than before the cattle crunch

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year_month	weekly_hours
2006-03	39.4
2006-04	39.9
2006-05	40.1
2006-06	40.5
2006-07	40.3
2006-08	40
2006-09	40.1
2006-10	40.1
2006-11	40.3
2006-12	39.3
2007-01	40.5
2007-02	40.7
2007-03	40.9
2007-04	40.4
2007-05	40.8
2007-06	40.6
2007-07	40.4
2007-08	39.7
2007-09	39.8
2007-10	40
2007-11	40.5
2007-12	40.7
2008-01	40.2
2008-02	40.2
2008-03	40.2
2008-04	40.7
2008-05	40.1
2008-06	39.7
2008-07	40.1
2008-08	40
2008-09	40
2008-10	39.5
2008-11	38.7
2008-12	38
2009-01	38.3
2009-02	38.6
2009-03	38.3
2009-04	38.6
2009-05	38.3
2009-06	38.6
2009-07	38.8
2009-08	39.2
2009-09	39
2009-10	39.2
2009-11	39.4
2009-12	39.6
2010-01	40.1
2010-02	39.9
2010-03	40.2
2010-04	40.2
2010-05	40.7
2010-06	40.7
2010-07	40.5
2010-08	40.4
2010-09	40.9
2010-10	40.7
2010-11	40.7
2010-12	40.8
2011-01	40.4
2011-02	40.3
2011-03	40.6
2011-04	40.4
2011-05	40.2
2011-06	40.4
2011-07	41.4
2011-08	40.9
2011-09	40.3
2011-10	40.7
2011-11	41.1
2011-12	40.6
2012-01	41.5
2012-02	40.7
2012-03	40.6
2012-04	41
2012-05	40.3
2012-06	39.6
2012-07	39.7
2012-08	40.5
2012-09	41
2012-10	41.2
2012-11	41.1
2012-12	41.9
2013-01	41.6
2013-02	41.4
2013-03	41.2
2013-04	40.9
2013-05	41.2
2013-06	41.5
2013-07	41.5
2013-08	41.5
2013-09	41.2
2013-10	41.5
2013-11	41.5
2013-12	41.4
2014-01	42
2014-02	41.2
2014-03	41.7
2014-04	41
2014-05	41.3
2014-06	41.1
2014-07	40.7
2014-08	40.9
2014-09	41.2
2014-10	40.8
2014-11	41
2014-12	41.2
2015-01	41.7
2015-02	42.6
2015-03	41.8
2015-04	42.4
2015-05	42.6
2015-06	41.7
2015-07	42.3
2015-08	42.1
2015-09	41.6
2015-10	42.2
2015-11	41.6
2015-12	41.2
2016-01	41.1
2016-02	41.3
2016-03	41.7
2016-04	41.7
2016-05	41.9
2016-06	42.3
2016-07	41.7
2016-08	41.8
2016-09	41.9
2016-10	42.2
2016-11	41.8
2016-12	42.3
2017-01	41.9
2017-02	42.1
2017-03	41.7
2017-04	41.9
2017-05	42.1
2017-06	42.5
2017-07	42.7
2017-08	42.5
2017-09	42.3
2017-10	41.8
2017-11	42.4
2017-12	42.2
2018-01	42.1
2018-02	41.9
2018-03	42.1
2018-04	41.9
2018-05	42.4
2018-06	42.1
2018-07	42.7
2018-08	42.8
2018-09	42.7
2018-10	42.3
2018-11	43.2
2018-12	43.1
2019-01	43.1
2019-02	43.4
2019-03	41.9
2019-04	42.8
2019-05	42.7
2019-06	42.8
2019-07	42.2
2019-08	42.2
2019-09	42.1
2019-10	42.3
2019-11	41.9
2019-12	42.3
2020-01	42.8
2020-02	42.6
2020-03	42.8
2020-04	41
2020-05	42.7
2020-06	42.7
2020-07	43
2020-08	42.8
2020-09	43.1
2020-10	43.1
2020-11	43.1
2020-12	43.3
2021-01	42.5
2021-02	43
2021-03	43.2
2021-04	43.2
2021-05	42.9
2021-06	43.1
2021-07	42.7
2021-08	42.9
2021-09	42.3
2021-10	41.8
2021-11	42.1
2021-12	42
2022-01	41.4
2022-02	42.5
2022-03	41.4
2022-04	41.1
2022-05	40.9
2022-06	40.9
2022-07	40.8
2022-08	40.7
2022-09	40.4
2022-10	40.8
2022-11	40.7
2022-12	40.5
2023-01	41
2023-02	40.5
2023-03	41.4
2023-04	40.3
2023-05	40.4
2023-06	39.9
2023-07	40
2023-08	40.2
2023-09	40.6
2023-10	40.7
2023-11	40.3
2023-12	40.6
2024-01	40.5
2024-02	41.6
2024-03	41
2024-04	41.6
2024-05	41.6
2024-06	41.5
2024-07	41.5
2024-08	41.2
2024-09	41.3
2024-10	40.9
2024-11	41.1
2024-12	40.7
2025-01	40.8
2025-02	40.2
2025-03	40
2025-04	39.8
2025-05	39.9
2025-06	40.1
2025-07	41
2025-08	40.4
2025-09	40.4
2025-10	40.4
2025-11	40.6
2025-12	40.7
2026-01	40.6
2026-02	41.2
2026-03	41.2
2026-04	41.4
2026-05	41.1
2026-06	40.9

Packing-plant pay rose faster than the private-sector average — and still lags

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year_month	slaughter_ahe	private_ahe	slaughter_index	private_index	pay_ratio_pct
2006-03	12.8	20.04	70.68	71.65	63.9
2006-04	13.06	20.17	72.11	72.11	64.7
2006-05	13.13	20.13	72.5	71.97	65.2
2006-06	13.04	20.22	72	72.29	64.5
2006-07	13.07	20.29	72.17	72.54	64.4
2006-08	13.11	20.32	72.39	72.65	64.5
2006-09	13.08	20.4	72.23	72.94	64.1
2006-10	13.2	20.42	72.89	73.01	64.6
2006-11	12.92	20.49	71.34	73.26	63.1
2006-12	12.96	20.58	71.56	73.58	63
2007-01	12.97	20.59	71.62	73.61	63
2007-02	13.02	20.68	71.89	73.94	63
2007-03	13.06	20.72	72.11	74.08	63
2007-04	13.15	20.79	72.61	74.33	63.3
2007-05	12.92	20.84	71.34	74.51	62
2007-06	13.2	20.95	72.89	74.9	63
2007-07	13.19	20.94	72.83	74.87	63
2007-08	13.2	21	72.89	75.08	62.9
2007-09	13.17	21.04	72.72	75.22	62.6
2007-10	13.16	21.06	72.67	75.29	62.5
2007-11	13.3	21.12	73.44	75.51	63
2007-12	13.27	21.16	73.27	75.65	62.7
2008-01	13.11	21.19	72.39	75.76	61.9
2008-02	13.34	21.27	73.66	76.05	62.7
2008-03	13.45	21.36	74.27	76.37	63
2008-04	13.33	21.38	73.61	76.44	62.3
2008-05	13.58	21.47	74.99	76.76	63.3
2008-06	13.66	21.52	75.43	76.94	63.5
2008-07	13.73	21.6	75.81	77.23	63.6
2008-08	13.83	21.7	76.37	77.58	63.7
2008-09	13.93	21.73	76.92	77.69	64.1
2008-10	14.03	21.76	77.47	77.8	64.5
2008-11	14.16	21.86	78.19	78.16	64.8
2008-12	14.3	21.95	78.96	78.48	65.1
2009-01	14.2	21.96	78.41	78.51	64.7
2009-02	14.1	21.98	77.86	78.58	64.1
2009-03	14.14	22.05	78.08	78.83	64.1
2009-04	13.96	22.1	77.08	79.01	63.2
2009-05	14.14	22.12	78.08	79.08	63.9
2009-06	14.17	22.14	78.24	79.16	64
2009-07	14.17	22.18	78.24	79.3	63.9
2009-08	14.18	22.23	78.3	79.48	63.8
2009-09	14.27	22.27	78.8	79.62	64.1
2009-10	14.34	22.31	79.18	79.76	64.3
2009-11	14.31	22.34	79.02	79.87	64.1
2009-12	14.34	22.37	79.18	79.98	64.1
2010-01	14.42	22.4	79.62	80.09	64.4
2010-02	14.6	22.46	80.62	80.3	65
2010-03	14.47	22.46	79.9	80.3	64.4
2010-04	14.55	22.49	80.34	80.41	64.7
2010-05	14.57	22.51	80.45	80.48	64.7
2010-06	14.59	22.53	80.56	80.55	64.8
2010-07	14.66	22.59	80.95	80.77	64.9
2010-08	14.74	22.62	81.39	80.87	65.2
2010-09	14.67	22.67	81	81.05	64.7
2010-10	14.81	22.73	81.78	81.27	65.2
2010-11	14.83	22.73	81.89	81.27	65.2
2010-12	14.98	22.76	82.72	81.37	65.8
2011-01	15.01	22.87	82.88	81.77	65.6
2011-02	15.03	22.87	82.99	81.77	65.7
2011-03	15.03	22.87	82.99	81.77	65.7
2011-04	15.1	22.91	83.38	81.91	65.9
2011-05	15.08	22.97	83.27	82.12	65.7
2011-06	15.13	23	83.55	82.23	65.8
2011-07	15.08	23.11	83.27	82.62	65.3
2011-08	15.03	23.06	82.99	82.45	65.2
2011-09	15.22	23.11	84.04	82.62	65.9
2011-10	15	23.18	82.83	82.87	64.7
2011-11	14.99	23.19	82.77	82.91	64.6
2011-12	14.95	23.22	82.55	83.02	64.4
2012-01	14.99	23.26	82.77	83.16	64.4
2012-02	15.09	23.28	83.32	83.23	64.8
2012-03	15.1	23.36	83.38	83.52	64.6
2012-04	15.07	23.39	83.21	83.63	64.4
2012-05	15.33	23.41	84.65	83.7	65.5
2012-06	15.11	23.46	83.43	83.88	64.4
2012-07	15.2	23.49	83.93	83.98	64.7
2012-08	15.04	23.48	83.05	83.95	64.1
2012-09	15.12	23.57	83.49	84.27	64.1
2012-10	15.24	23.56	84.15	84.23	64.7
2012-11	15.08	23.63	83.27	84.48	63.8
2012-12	14.96	23.72	82.61	84.81	63.1
2013-01	15.1	23.74	83.38	84.88	63.6
2013-02	15.06	23.78	83.16	85.02	63.3
2013-03	15.12	23.8	83.49	85.09	63.5
2013-04	15.17	23.87	83.77	85.34	63.6
2013-05	15.14	23.89	83.6	85.41	63.4
2013-06	15.12	23.96	83.49	85.66	63.1
2013-07	15.21	23.98	83.99	85.73	63.4
2013-08	15.31	24.02	84.54	85.88	63.7
2013-09	15.42	24.06	85.15	86.02	64.1
2013-10	15.31	24.09	84.54	86.13	63.6
2013-11	15.43	24.16	85.2	86.38	63.9
2013-12	15.52	24.18	85.7	86.45	64.2
2014-01	15.55	24.22	85.86	86.59	64.2
2014-02	15.63	24.33	86.31	86.99	64.2
2014-03	15.56	24.31	85.92	86.91	64
2014-04	15.61	24.34	86.2	87.02	64.1
2014-05	15.63	24.4	86.31	87.24	64.1
2014-06	15.63	24.46	86.31	87.45	63.9
2014-07	15.59	24.48	86.09	87.52	63.7
2014-08	15.56	24.54	85.92	87.74	63.4
2014-09	15.52	24.56	85.7	87.81	63.2
2014-10	15.58	24.59	86.03	87.92	63.4
2014-11	15.68	24.66	86.58	88.17	63.6
2014-12	15.73	24.63	86.86	88.06	63.9
2015-01	15.72	24.74	86.8	88.45	63.5
2015-02	15.78	24.79	87.13	88.63	63.7
2015-03	15.93	24.85	87.96	88.85	64.1
2015-04	15.93	24.89	87.96	88.99	64
2015-05	15.83	24.97	87.41	89.27	63.4
2015-06	16.15	24.97	89.18	89.27	64.7
2015-07	16.21	25.01	89.51	89.42	64.8
2015-08	16.28	25.1	89.9	89.74	64.9
2015-09	16.46	25.11	90.89	89.77	65.6
2015-10	16.49	25.2	91.05	90.1	65.4
2015-11	16.56	25.25	91.44	90.28	65.6
2015-12	16.56	25.25	91.44	90.28	65.6
2016-01	16.61	25.37	91.72	90.7	65.5
2016-02	16.5	25.38	91.11	90.74	65
2016-03	16.51	25.45	91.17	90.99	64.9
2016-04	16.62	25.53	91.77	91.28	65.1
2016-05	16.71	25.58	92.27	91.46	65.3
2016-06	16.86	25.62	93.1	91.6	65.8
2016-07	16.87	25.69	93.15	91.85	65.7
2016-08	16.99	25.71	93.82	91.92	66.1
2016-09	16.84	25.77	92.99	92.13	65.3
2016-10	16.97	25.9	93.71	92.6	65.5
2016-11	16.99	25.9	93.82	92.6	65.6
2016-12	17.03	25.93	94.04	92.71	65.7
2017-01	17.01	26	93.93	92.96	65.4
2017-02	17.11	26.07	94.48	93.21	65.6
2017-03	17.15	26.11	94.7	93.35	65.7
2017-04	17.02	26.18	93.98	93.6	65
2017-05	17.11	26.21	94.48	93.71	65.3
2017-06	17.05	26.26	94.15	93.89	64.9
2017-07	17.16	26.35	94.75	94.21	65.1
2017-08	17.12	26.37	94.53	94.28	64.9
2017-09	17.28	26.49	95.42	94.71	65.2
2017-10	17.31	26.5	95.58	94.74	65.3
2017-11	17.38	26.54	95.97	94.89	65.5
2017-12	17.39	26.63	96.02	95.21	65.3
2018-01	17.52	26.72	96.74	95.53	65.6
2018-02	17.52	26.74	96.74	95.6	65.5
2018-03	17.66	26.85	97.52	96	65.8
2018-04	17.76	26.91	98.07	96.21	66
2018-05	17.73	26.98	97.9	96.46	65.7
2018-06	17.76	27.03	98.07	96.64	65.7
2018-07	17.69	27.1	97.68	96.89	65.3
2018-08	17.78	27.21	98.18	97.28	65.3
2018-09	17.71	27.32	97.79	97.68	64.8
2018-10	17.87	27.37	98.67	97.85	65.3
2018-11	17.77	27.44	98.12	98.11	64.8
2018-12	17.78	27.56	98.18	98.53	64.5
2019-01	17.91	27.59	98.9	98.64	64.9
2019-02	18.08	27.69	99.83	99	65.3
2019-03	18.1	27.77	99.94	99.28	65.2
2019-04	18.11	27.79	100	99.36	65.2
2019-05	18.09	27.88	99.89	99.68	64.9
2019-06	18.11	27.97	100	100	64.7
2019-07	18.32	28.03	101.16	100.21	65.4
2019-08	18.4	28.14	101.6	100.61	65.4
2019-09	18.52	28.16	102.26	100.68	65.8
2019-10	18.55	28.24	102.43	100.97	65.7
2019-11	18.67	28.34	103.09	101.32	65.9
2019-12	18.78	28.38	103.7	101.47	66.2
2020-01	18.67	28.43	103.09	101.64	65.7
2020-02	18.77	28.54	103.64	102.04	65.8
2020-03	18.73	28.73	103.42	102.72	65.2
2020-04	19.02	30.04	105.02	107.4	63.3
2020-05	19.28	29.72	106.46	106.26	64.9
2020-06	19.15	29.38	105.74	105.04	65.2
2020-07	19.07	29.39	105.3	105.08	64.9
2020-08	19.1	29.49	105.47	105.43	64.8
2020-09	19.14	29.51	105.69	105.51	64.9
2020-10	19.2	29.54	106.02	105.61	65
2020-11	19.32	29.64	106.68	105.97	65.2
2020-12	19.37	29.91	106.96	106.94	64.8
2021-01	19.42	29.93	107.23	107.01	64.9
2021-02	19.3	30.05	106.57	107.44	64.2
2021-03	19.57	30.03	108.06	107.37	65.2
2021-04	19.71	30.22	108.83	108.04	65.2
2021-05	19.91	30.41	109.94	108.72	65.5
2021-06	20.39	30.54	112.59	109.19	66.8
2021-07	20.24	30.66	111.76	109.62	66
2021-08	20.4	30.78	112.64	110.05	66.3
2021-09	20.55	30.98	113.47	110.76	66.3
2021-10	20.62	31.14	113.86	111.33	66.2
2021-11	20.67	31.23	114.14	111.66	66.2
2021-12	20.9	31.39	115.41	112.23	66.6
2022-01	20.98	31.6	115.85	112.98	66.4
2022-02	21.11	31.64	116.57	113.12	66.7
2022-03	21.14	31.8	116.73	113.69	66.5
2022-04	21.34	31.96	117.84	114.27	66.8
2022-05	21.55	32.1	119	114.77	67.1
2022-06	21.61	32.19	119.33	115.09	67.1
2022-07	21.92	32.34	121.04	115.62	67.8
2022-08	22.34	32.44	123.36	115.98	68.9
2022-09	22.23	32.57	122.75	116.45	68.3
2022-10	22.27	32.7	122.97	116.91	68.1
2022-11	22.38	32.82	123.58	117.34	68.2
2022-12	22.45	32.94	123.96	117.77	68.2
2023-01	22.76	33.02	125.68	118.06	68.9
2023-02	22.75	33.15	125.62	118.52	68.6
2023-03	23.19	33.27	128.05	118.95	69.7
2023-04	23.16	33.43	127.89	119.52	69.3
2023-05	23	33.5	127	119.77	68.7
2023-06	23.5	33.69	129.76	120.45	69.8
2023-07	23.29	33.85	128.6	121.02	68.8
2023-08	23.24	33.89	128.33	121.17	68.6
2023-09	23.23	34.01	128.27	121.59	68.3
2023-10	23.42	34.08	129.32	121.84	68.7
2023-11	23.42	34.17	129.32	122.17	68.5
2023-12	23.57	34.29	130.15	122.6	68.7
2024-01	23.6	34.47	130.31	123.24	68.5
2024-02	23.65	34.52	130.59	123.42	68.5
2024-03	23.52	34.65	129.87	123.88	67.9
2024-04	23.88	34.76	131.86	124.28	68.7
2024-05	23.9	34.89	131.97	124.74	68.5
2024-06	24.05	35.01	132.8	125.17	68.7
2024-07	24.31	35.08	134.24	125.42	69.3
2024-08	24.49	35.22	135.23	125.92	69.5
2024-09	24.51	35.34	135.34	126.35	69.4
2024-10	24.69	35.46	136.33	126.78	69.6
2024-11	24.84	35.6	137.16	127.28	69.8
2024-12	24.9	35.69	137.49	127.6	69.8
2025-01	25.02	35.84	138.16	128.14	69.8
2025-02	25.2	35.94	139.15	128.49	70.1
2025-03	25.28	36.11	139.59	129.1	70
2025-04	25.16	36.12	138.93	129.14	69.7
2025-05	25.25	36.28	139.43	129.71	69.6
2025-06	25.33	36.36	139.87	130	69.7
2025-07	25.15	36.47	138.87	130.39	69
2025-08	25.23	36.62	139.32	130.93	68.9
2025-09	25.52	36.7	140.92	131.21	69.5
2025-10	25.68	36.85	141.8	131.75	69.7
2025-11	25.56	37	141.14	132.28	69.1
2025-12	25.54	37.02	141.03	132.36	69
2026-01	25.47	37.15	140.64	132.82	68.6
2026-02	25.43	37.27	140.42	133.25	68.2
2026-03	25.32	37.35	139.81	133.54	67.8
2026-04	25.3	37.41	139.7	133.75	67.6
2026-05	25.45	37.49	140.53	134.04	67.9
2026-06	25.72	37.6	142.02	134.43	68.4

What the payrolls can and cannot tell a reader this week

The honest conclusion is narrower than the cattle-headline, and more useful. America’s packing plants, counted as slaughtering and processing, employed more people in mid-2026 than in 2019, when the herd was larger. Poultry processing added jobs. Red-meat slaughter did not. Workweeks shortened. Pay rose faster than the private-sector average and still did not catch it. That is what the CES bulk files show through June 2026.

It is not a forecast of what happens after Tyson’s Illinois and Utah closings, and it is not a USDA cattle inventory. Rebuilding a cow herd takes years; a monthly jobs survey does not. If the shortage is as durable as ranchers say, the except-poultry slaughter line is the series to watch, not the comforting total that poultry has been propping up. Grocery prices can rise while the plants stay staffed. This week’s news is that they have.