California did add jobs. Almost all of them were in healthcare.

The jobs argument nobody is having

In two months California will elect a governor. The campaigns are full of promises. They are not, as a CalMatters commentary republished on Friday pointed out, full of jobs. The piece argued that the state never fully recovered from the pandemic shutdown, that unemployment remains among the highest in the country, and that healthcare is the only sector still hiring in force — a narrow foundation for a $4 trillion economy that used to mint work in technology, film and trade.

That last claim is the one official payrolls can test. The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish a campaign talking point. It publishes establishment counts. Those counts, through July 2026, show a labor market that did recover the pandemic hole — and then stopped looking like the California that politicians still describe. The state added jobs. It added them in one place. Almost everywhere else, the payroll shrank or went sideways.

This is not an unemployment-rate story. Those household numbers live in a different survey. It is a payroll story: how many jobs employers reported, in which industries, and how that path compares with Texas, Florida and the nation. The answer is less a collapse than a substitution. California replaced a diversified job machine with a hospital-and-clinic machine, then asked voters to talk about something else.

Line chart showing California, Texas, Florida and U.S. nonfarm payrolls indexed to February 2020, with California remaining near 103 in July 2026 while Texas and Florida exceed 110. — Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment, indexed to February 2020 = 100. California recovered the pandemic trough but has lagged Texas, Florida and the national average. Latest month is July 2026. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment and Current Employment Statistics, snapshot dated 24 August 2026. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

month	ca_index	tx_index	fl_index	ny_index	or_index	us_index	ca_jobs_thousands	tx_jobs_thousands	fl_jobs_thousands	us_jobs_thousands
2019-01	98.07	97.86	97.94	99.21	98.74	98.53	17319.7	12681	8896.2	150060
2019-02	98.14	98.12	98.16	99.28	98.45	98.54	17332.2	12714.6	8916.2	150067
2019-03	98.27	98.21	98.3	99.43	98.62	98.69	17355.4	12726.4	8929.3	150295
2019-04	98.3	98.42	98.39	99.55	98.92	98.88	17360	12753.9	8937.4	150591
2019-05	98.44	98.66	98.45	99.55	99.03	98.9	17385.1	12784.9	8943.1	150618
2019-06	98.65	98.86	98.6	99.63	99.13	99.04	17423.1	12810.2	8956	150838
2019-07	98.7	99.04	98.74	99.49	99.33	99.11	17432.1	12833.9	8969.2	150937
2019-08	98.89	99.26	99.04	99.49	99.54	99.26	17465.1	12861.8	8996.2	151169
2019-09	98.96	99.38	98.98	99.68	99.61	99.39	17478	12877.4	8990.9	151365
2019-10	99.08	99.4	99.36	99.58	99.77	99.45	17498.9	12880.1	9025.1	151460
2019-11	99.43	99.67	99.62	99.75	99.92	99.59	17559.8	12915.5	9049.2	151667
2019-12	99.52	99.7	99.82	99.73	99.99	99.67	17576	12919.7	9067	151794
2020-01	99.87	99.87	99.9	99.93	100.02	99.83	17638.1	12940.9	9074.6	152031
2020-02	100	100	100	100	100	100	17660.9	12958.1	9083.6	152293
2020-03	99	99.59	99.34	98.84	99.23	99.08	17483.6	12905.4	9023.7	150895
2020-04	84.49	88.84	85.92	79.85	85.67	85.64	14921.5	11512.4	7804.3	130426
2020-05	85.55	90.71	88.56	81.45	86.67	87.36	15109	11754.1	8044.5	133040
2020-06	88.49	92.52	91.72	83.89	89.59	90.4	15627.3	11988.4	8331.6	137671
2020-07	88.72	92.54	92.18	85.08	91.1	91.44	15669.4	11991.8	8373.1	139255
2020-08	89.25	93.39	92.63	87.19	92.02	92.47	15761.7	12102	8414.4	140821
2020-09	90.11	93.96	93.34	89.26	92.54	93.09	15914.6	12175.2	8478.8	141770
2020-10	91.26	94.64	94.17	89.94	93.05	93.54	16117.7	12263.9	8554.1	142460
2020-11	91.65	95	94.56	90.06	93.36	93.72	16185.4	12310.5	8589.3	142733
2020-12	91.19	95.39	95.01	89.77	92.27	93.6	16104.1	12360.5	8630.2	142548
2021-01	90.63	95.72	95.48	89.77	92.27	93.81	16006	12404	8673.2	142863
2021-02	91.78	95.41	95.89	90.03	92.87	94.15	16209.9	12362.9	8710.1	143380
2021-03	92.54	96.39	96.44	90.6	94.09	94.71	16343.3	12490.4	8760.6	144232
2021-04	93.42	96.78	96.51	91.05	94.53	94.94	16498.8	12540.5	8766.7	144587
2021-05	94.05	97.22	97.22	91.26	94.59	95.25	16609.9	12597.7	8831.1	145065
2021-06	94.45	97.75	97.81	91.47	94.84	95.75	16680.2	12667.1	8884.4	145820
2021-07	95.57	98.65	98.77	92.15	96.34	96.37	16878.8	12783.3	8972.1	146762
2021-08	96.1	98.85	98.99	92.37	96.23	96.73	16971.9	12809.6	8992.2	147314
2021-09	96.07	99.3	99.52	93.05	96.2	97.03	16967.5	12867.1	9040.2	147771
2021-10	97.46	100.41	100.56	94.32	96.76	97.56	17212.1	13010.8	9134.4	148572
2021-11	97.83	100.82	100.97	94.71	97.15	97.99	17277.9	13064.6	9171.9	149230
2021-12	98.22	101.38	101.32	95.13	97.32	98.37	17347.1	13137.1	9203.4	149816
2022-01	98.26	101.37	101.5	94.97	97.43	98.5	17352.9	13136.1	9219.5	150006
2022-02	99.05	102.11	102.15	95.69	97.97	99.04	17494	13231	9278.9	150825
2022-03	99.42	102.4	102.36	95.9	98.27	99.36	17558.4	13269.1	9298.2	151315
2022-04	99.75	103.1	103.08	95.97	98.49	99.56	17616.9	13360	9363.6	151623
2022-05	99.89	103.39	103.46	96.24	98.44	99.76	17641.4	13397.5	9398.1	151924
2022-06	100.16	103.61	103.64	96.55	98.42	100.04	17688.3	13425.3	9414.6	152358
2022-07	100.44	104.54	104.46	97.25	99.67	100.51	17738	13546.9	9488.8	153072
2022-08	100.65	104.91	104.81	97.48	99.75	100.7	17775.2	13593.7	9520.8	153362
2022-09	100.74	105.3	105.29	97.45	99.73	100.85	17791.9	13644.5	9564.2	153582
2022-10	100.67	105.51	105.24	97.62	99.54	101.08	17779.4	13672.6	9559.7	153939
2022-11	100.76	105.72	105.32	97.76	99.55	101.28	17794.6	13699.6	9567.1	154242
2022-12	100.81	105.89	105.7	97.73	99.76	101.35	17803.6	13720.7	9601.5	154342
2023-01	100.54	106.46	106.19	98.13	100.63	101.63	17755.9	13795.1	9646.2	154776
2023-02	100.69	106.63	106.4	98.17	100.65	101.82	17782.6	13817.8	9665.2	155066
2023-03	100.64	106.9	106.66	98.26	100.71	101.87	17774.8	13852.4	9688.7	155134
2023-04	100.58	106.95	106.95	98.25	100.7	102.02	17763.8	13859	9714.8	155375
2023-05	100.9	107.16	107.24	98.59	100.85	102.21	17820	13886.4	9741.5	155655
2023-06	101.06	107.63	107.67	98.92	101.18	102.36	17848.4	13947.3	9780.6	155880
2023-07	100.81	107.43	107.66	98.93	100.83	102.46	17804.8	13921.2	9779	156043
2023-08	100.99	107.67	107.82	98.98	100.9	102.61	17835.9	13952.1	9793.9	156261
2023-09	101.24	107.94	108.15	99.11	101.17	102.71	17880.5	13986.5	9823.6	156417
2023-10	101.04	107.97	108.41	99.11	100.88	102.81	17844.9	13991.4	9847.1	156576
2023-11	101.12	108.06	108.48	99.17	101.01	102.9	17858.6	14002.4	9853.6	156703
2023-12	101.41	108.23	108.65	99.47	101.01	103	17909.1	14024.1	9869.7	156857
2024-01	102.07	108.43	108.82	99.58	100.43	103.11	18027	14049.9	9884.6	157032
2024-02	101.67	108.58	108.94	99.71	100.84	103.25	17955.8	14069.6	9895.7	157238
2024-03	101.74	108.73	109.14	100	100.99	103.4	17968.5	14088.9	9913.4	157466
2024-04	101.56	108.8	109.25	100.29	101.15	103.44	17936.3	14098.2	9923.9	157530
2024-05	101.54	109.02	109.34	100.42	101.12	103.49	17933.6	14126.5	9932.1	157608
2024-06	101.52	109.22	109.39	100.72	101.24	103.55	17928.7	14153.1	9936.5	157695
2024-07	101.63	108.92	109.48	100.44	101.13	103.58	17948.8	14114.4	9945.1	157748
2024-08	101.72	109.47	109.65	100.5	101.18	103.59	17964.9	14185.3	9960.2	157757
2024-09	101.86	109.62	109.94	100.86	101.46	103.69	17988.8	14204.6	9986.5	157912
2024-10	102.22	109.74	108.73	100.8	101.39	103.71	18052.1	14220.8	9876.9	157945
2024-11	102.2	109.9	109.81	100.94	101.2	103.8	18049.3	14240.6	9974.4	158079
2024-12	101.95	110.04	109.86	101.07	101.33	103.95	18005.9	14259.4	9979.3	158316
2025-01	102.06	110.1	110.04	101.26	101.21	103.92	18024.8	14267.3	9995.9	158268
2025-02	101.94	110.21	110.15	101.33	100.88	103.95	18003.9	14280.8	10005.9	158310
2025-03	101.97	110.25	110.26	101.51	100.77	103.99	18009.5	14286.3	10015.6	158377
2025-04	102.25	110.45	110.28	100.97	100.9	104.07	18058.2	14311.9	10017.1	158485
2025-05	102.28	110.52	110.23	101.18	100.86	104.07	18063.2	14321.2	10013.3	158498
2025-06	102.13	110.29	110.12	101.13	100.75	104.06	18037.6	14291.7	10002.6	158478
2025-07	102.04	110.37	110.05	101.04	100.61	104.1	18020.3	14302.4	9996.3	158542
2025-08	102.14	110.43	110.01	101.1	100.59	104.06	18038.7	14309.9	9992.6	158472
2025-09	102.05	110.41	109.93	101.16	100.3	104.11	18022.3	14307	9985.6	158548
2025-10	102.06	110.33	109.46	101.1	100.06	104.02	18024	14297.2	9943	158408
2025-11	102.25	110.41	109.51	101.21	100.16	104.04	18059	14306.5	9947.2	158449
2025-12	102.27	110.66	109.58	101.48	100.17	104.03	18062.5	14339.4	9953.9	158432
2026-01	102.74	110.84	109.73	101.65	100.25	104.14	18144.3	14363.1	9967.4	158592
2026-02	102.63	110.79	109.7	101.41	99.9	104.03	18125.5	14356.7	9965.1	158436
2026-03	102.84	111.08	110	101.43	99.68	104.17	18163	14394	9992.4	158650
2026-04	102.84	111.14	110.38	101.42	99.71	104.27	18163	14401.4	10026.3	158798
2026-05	102.75	111.33	110.33	101.59	99.84	104.31	18147.4	14426.2	10022.2	158861
2026-06	102.79	111.64	110.45	101.47	99.9	104.33	18153.5	14466.4	10032.8	158881
2026-07	102.67	111.65	110.5	101.25	99.7	104.31	18133	14468	10037.3	158858

Recovered, then outrun

California employers reported 18.133 million seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs in July 2026, according to the BLS state payroll files. That is 472,100 more than in February 2020, just before the pandemic shutdown, a gain of 2.7 percent. From July 2019 the gain is larger: 700,900 jobs, or 4.0 percent. The April 2020 trough was brutal — payrolls fell to 14.922 million — so the rebound from that hole looks impressive until you put it next to the states California politicians like to measure themselves against.

Texas payrolls are 11.7 percent above February 2020. Florida's are 10.5 percent higher. The national CES count is up 4.3 percent. New York, another large high-cost state, managed only 1.3 percent. Oregon, named in Friday's commentary as sharing California's high unemployment, is still 0.3 percent below its pre-pandemic payroll. California sits in the slow group, not the disaster group. It is also no longer in the growth group that defined the 2010s.

The last twelve months make the stall clearer. From July 2025 to July 2026, California added 112,700 jobs, a 0.6 percent year-over-year gain. Texas added faster. Florida added some. Oregon lost some. A labor market can be both larger than it was in 2019 and too thin to feel like a recovery, especially if the new jobs are concentrated in a sector that depends on public budgets. That is the bind Friday's commentary was circling, and the payroll files agree on the shape if not on every adjective.

Horizontal bar chart of payroll percent change from February 2020 to July 2026 for Oregon, New York, California, the United States, Florida and Texas. — Percent change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls from February 2020 to July 2026. Texas and Florida added more than 10 percent; California added 2.7 percent, less than the national 4.3 percent. Oregon still sits slightly below its pre-pandemic level. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment and Current Employment Statistics, snapshot dated 24 August 2026. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

place	jul2019_thousands	feb2020_thousands	jul2025_thousands	jul2026_thousands	pct_since_jul2019	pct_since_feb2020	pct_since_jul2025	change_since_jul2019	change_since_feb2020
Oregon	1956	1969.2	1981.2	1963.2	0.37	-0.3	-0.91	7.2	-6
New York	9787.5	9837.9	9940.1	9960.7	1.77	1.25	0.21	173.2	122.8
California	17432.1	17660.9	18020.3	18133	4.02	2.67	0.63	700.9	472.1
United States	150937	152293	158542	158858	5.25	4.31	0.2	7921	6565
Florida	8969.2	9083.6	9996.3	10037.3	11.91	10.5	0.41	1068.1	953.7
Texas	12833.9	12958.1	14302.4	14468	12.73	11.65	1.16	1634.1	1509.9

One industry did the lifting

From July 2019 to July 2026, California health care and social assistance added 753,100 jobs, a 31 percent increase, to 3.180 million. Over the same span, the rest of the state's nonfarm payroll fell by 52,200 jobs. Healthcare did not merely lead the expansion. It more than accounted for the entire net gain. Take those clinics, hospitals and social-assistance payrolls out of the ledger and California has fewer jobs than it did seven summers ago.

Private education and health as a supersector — healthcare plus private schools — added 806,200 jobs. Government added 75,800. Other services added 29,000. Trade, transportation and utilities added 14,000. Leisure and hospitality added 13,100, which sounds like a comeback until you notice it is still 11,800 jobs short of February 2020. Then the losses start. Manufacturing is down 87,800 jobs from July 2019. Financial activities are down 60,900. Information — the supersector that includes software publishers, telecom, data processing and much of Hollywood's payroll — is down 53,200. Professional and business services, once the white-collar sponge for a tech boom, are down 27,700. Construction is roughly flat. Mining and logging, already tiny, shrank further.

Those supersectors sum to the statewide total, so this is not a trick of omitted categories. The composition has shifted in plain sight. Healthcare and social assistance was 13.9 percent of California payrolls in July 2019. In July 2026 it was 17.5 percent. The national share rose too, from 13.5 percent to 15.1 percent, because an aging country hires nurses everywhere. California just hired them faster, and hired almost nobody else. Friday's commentary warned that healthcare jobs depend on federal and state spending that is now being cut. The payroll files cannot prove what happens next. They can show how exposed the state's recent job growth already is.

Horizontal bar chart of California supersector job changes from July 2019 to July 2026, with private education and health up more than 800,000 jobs and manufacturing down about 88,000. — Change in seasonally adjusted California payroll jobs from July 2019 to July 2026, in thousands. Private education and health is the only large gainer; manufacturing, finance and information shrank. Supersectors sum to statewide total nonfarm. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, snapshot dated 24 August 2026. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment.

industry	change_thousands	pct_change	jul2026_thousands
Manufacturing	-87.8	-6.81	1201.9
Financial activities	-60.9	-7.24	780.2
Information	-53.2	-9.41	512.4
Professional and business services	-27.7	-1	2736.6
Mining and logging	-4.6	-20.09	18.3
Construction	-3	-0.34	887.4
Leisure and hospitality	13.1	0.64	2047.4
Trade, transportation, utilities	14	0.46	3056.6
Other services	29	5.03	605.4
Government	75.8	2.92	2669.7
Private education and health	806.2	28.68	3617.1

Line chart comparing healthcare's share of California and U.S. payrolls from 2019 to July 2026, with California rising to 17.5 percent and the U.S. to 15.1 percent. — Health care and social assistance as a share of seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls. California's share rose from about 13.9 percent in July 2019 to 17.5 percent in July 2026, pulling further ahead of the U.S. average. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment and Current Employment Statistics, snapshot dated 24 August 2026. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

month	healthcare_index	information_index	manufacturing_index	leisure_index	healthcare_thousands	information_thousands	manufacturing_thousands	leisure_thousands	rest_of_economy_thousands	ca_healthcare_share_pct	us_healthcare_share_pct
2019-01	96.18	95.35	100.19	98	2384.8	561.5	1293.1	2018	14934.9	13.77	13.44
2019-02	96.48	96.42	100.17	98.19	2392.2	567.8	1292.9	2022	14940	13.8	13.46
2019-03	96.68	95.99	100.05	98.41	2397	565.3	1291.3	2026.5	14958.4	13.81	13.48
2019-04	96.88	94.33	100.11	98.53	2402.1	555.5	1292.1	2028.9	14957.9	13.84	13.49
2019-05	97.18	94.82	100.14	98.6	2409.5	558.4	1292.5	2030.3	14975.6	13.86	13.51
2019-06	97.51	95.99	100.18	98.83	2417.7	565.3	1293	2035.1	15005.4	13.88	13.52
2019-07	97.88	96.04	99.92	98.79	2426.9	565.6	1289.7	2034.3	15005.2	13.92	13.53
2019-08	98.27	96.74	100.16	98.71	2436.5	569.7	1292.8	2032.6	15028.6	13.95	13.55
2019-09	98.57	98.28	100.16	99.07	2443.9	578.8	1292.8	2040	15034.1	13.98	13.56
2019-10	98.75	96.72	100.18	99.3	2448.5	569.6	1293	2044.8	15050.4	13.99	13.59
2019-11	99.21	97.64	100.15	99.52	2459.9	575	1292.6	2049.3	15099.9	14.01	13.61
2019-12	99.42	97.37	100.14	99.67	2464.9	573.4	1292.5	2052.4	15111.1	14.02	13.62
2020-01	99.66	98.98	100.23	99.88	2471	582.9	1293.7	2056.7	15167.1	14.01	13.63
2020-02	100	100	100	100	2479.4	588.9	1290.7	2059.2	15181.5	14.04	13.64
2020-03	99.72	99.97	99.54	96.35	2472.4	588.7	1284.7	1984.1	15011.2	14.14	13.69
2020-04	90.6	87.18	90.44	51.73	2246.4	513.4	1167.3	1065.3	12675.1	15.05	14.17
2020-05	92.12	87.2	92.22	53.91	2283.9	513.5	1190.3	1110.2	12825.1	15.12	14.18
2020-06	94.77	86.35	94.03	63.41	2349.7	508.5	1213.6	1305.7	13277.6	15.04	14.05
2020-07	95.29	87.79	93.36	63.18	2362.6	517	1205	1301.1	13306.8	15.08	14.02
2020-08	95.73	88.54	93.76	62.77	2373.6	521.4	1210.1	1292.5	13388.1	15.06	13.96
2020-09	96.37	88.81	94.11	65.82	2389.5	523	1214.7	1355.3	13525.1	15.01	13.94
2020-10	97.07	90.22	94.45	69.47	2406.8	531.3	1219.1	1430.6	13710.9	14.93	13.94
2020-11	97.41	91.65	94.51	70.95	2415.2	539.7	1219.9	1460.9	13770.2	14.92	13.95
2020-12	97.89	92.17	94.64	65.79	2427.2	542.8	1221.5	1354.8	13676.9	15.07	14.01
2021-01	97.39	90.19	94.3	61.58	2414.6	531.1	1217.1	1268.1	13591.4	15.09	13.93
2021-02	97.93	90.37	94.85	67.7	2428.1	532.2	1224.2	1394.1	13781.8	14.98	13.91
2021-03	98.33	92.48	95.28	70.44	2438.1	544.6	1229.8	1450.6	13905.2	14.92	13.88
2021-04	98.9	94.67	95.46	75.16	2452.1	557.5	1232.1	1547.6	14046.7	14.86	13.88
2021-05	99.05	96.57	95.66	77.62	2455.8	568.7	1234.7	1598.4	14154.1	14.79	13.84
2021-06	99.36	96.18	95.74	80.39	2463.5	566.4	1235.7	1655.4	14216.7	14.77	13.76
2021-07	99.61	96.55	96.22	84.22	2469.8	568.6	1241.9	1734.2	14409	14.63	13.68
2021-08	99.71	100.76	96.37	85.49	2472.2	593.4	1243.8	1760.5	14499.7	14.57	13.63
2021-09	99.51	98.28	96.36	86.29	2467.3	578.8	1243.7	1776.8	14500.2	14.54	13.59
2021-10	100.38	100.42	97.52	88.4	2488.7	591.4	1258.7	1820.4	14723.4	14.46	13.54
2021-11	100.7	101.34	98.02	89.12	2496.7	596.8	1265.1	1835.2	14781.2	14.45	13.5
2021-12	101.02	101.09	98.41	90.02	2504.7	595.3	1270.2	1853.6	14842.4	14.44	13.47
2022-01	100.27	102.51	98.69	89.55	2486.1	603.7	1273.8	1844.1	14866.8	14.33	13.44
2022-02	100.8	103.79	99.3	90.89	2499.2	611.2	1281.7	1871.7	14994.8	14.29	13.43
2022-03	101.37	104.18	99.61	91.69	2513.3	613.5	1285.7	1888.1	15045.1	14.31	13.43
2022-04	102.02	104.62	100.03	92.5	2529.6	616.1	1291.1	1904.7	15087.3	14.36	13.44
2022-05	102.49	105.55	100.12	93.08	2541.1	621.6	1292.3	1916.8	15100.3	14.4	13.45
2022-06	102.97	105.99	100.33	93.9	2553	624.2	1295	1933.6	15135.3	14.43	13.46
2022-07	103.26	106.59	100.69	94.65	2560.2	627.7	1299.6	1949.1	15177.8	14.43	13.47
2022-08	103.67	106.95	100.89	95.15	2570.3	629.8	1302.2	1959.4	15204.9	14.46	13.49
2022-09	104.32	105.65	100.85	95.44	2586.4	622.2	1301.7	1965.4	15205.5	14.54	13.52
2022-10	104.6	105.03	100.89	95.75	2593.4	618.5	1302.2	1971.6	15186	14.59	13.55
2022-11	105.13	104.11	100.91	96.3	2606.6	613.1	1302.4	1983.1	15188	14.65	13.57
2022-12	105.52	103.62	100.84	96.43	2616.2	610.2	1301.5	1985.7	15187.4	14.69	13.62
2023-01	105.63	101.99	100.84	96.37	2619.1	600.6	1301.5	1984.4	15136.8	14.75	13.63
2023-02	106.25	100	100.71	96.84	2634.3	588.9	1299.8	1994.2	15148.3	14.81	13.65
2023-03	106.66	99.13	100.53	97.2	2644.5	583.8	1297.6	2001.6	15130.3	14.88	13.69
2023-04	107.6	97.27	100.22	96.87	2667.9	572.8	1293.6	1994.7	15095.9	15.02	13.71
2023-05	108.64	96.5	100.05	97.36	2693.7	568.3	1291.3	2004.9	15126.3	15.12	13.74
2023-06	108.98	94.82	99.83	97.75	2702	558.4	1288.5	2012.9	15146.4	15.14	13.77
2023-07	109.26	93.31	99.14	97.87	2709	549.5	1279.6	2015.4	15095.8	15.21	13.83
2023-08	110.03	91.61	99.05	97.99	2728.1	539.5	1278.5	2017.8	15107.8	15.3	13.87
2023-09	111.1	91.29	99.17	98.24	2754.6	537.6	1280	2022.9	15125.9	15.41	13.91
2023-10	111.09	90.73	99.02	98.14	2754.4	534.3	1278	2020.9	15090.5	15.44	13.95
2023-11	111.62	91	98.4	98.14	2767.5	535.9	1270	2020.9	15091.1	15.5	14
2023-12	112.49	91.93	98.34	98.26	2789.1	541.4	1269.3	2023.4	15120	15.57	14.04
2024-01	113.14	92.04	98.42	99.16	2805.1	542	1270.3	2041.8	15221.9	15.56	14.07
2024-02	113.73	92	97.8	98.26	2819.8	541.8	1262.3	2023.4	15136	15.7	14.11
2024-03	114.39	92.73	97.58	98.07	2836.1	546.1	1259.5	2019.4	15132.4	15.78	14.15
2024-04	114.77	92.27	97.37	97.85	2845.6	543.4	1256.7	2015	15090.7	15.87	14.19
2024-05	115.33	91.92	97.09	97.82	2859.5	541.3	1253.2	2014.4	15074.1	15.94	14.23
2024-06	115.89	91.58	96.99	97.55	2873.3	539.3	1251.8	2008.7	15055.4	16.03	14.26
2024-07	116.68	91.78	96.61	97.67	2892.9	540.5	1247	2011.2	15055.9	16.12	14.29
2024-08	117.29	91.97	96.4	97.31	2908.2	541.6	1244.2	2003.9	15056.7	16.19	14.32
2024-09	117.78	91.75	96.28	97.21	2920.3	540.3	1242.7	2001.7	15068.5	16.23	14.36
2024-10	118.5	91.05	95.98	98.26	2938.1	536.2	1238.8	2023.4	15114	16.28	14.41
2024-11	119.04	91.37	95.86	98.1	2951.4	538.1	1237.3	2020.1	15097.9	16.35	14.44
2024-12	119.25	90.17	95.6	97.9	2956.6	531	1233.9	2016	15049.3	16.42	14.47
2025-01	119.59	88.81	95.48	97.91	2965.1	523	1232.4	2016.1	15059.7	16.45	14.51
2025-02	120.56	90.07	95.27	97.64	2989.1	530.4	1229.6	2010.5	15014.8	16.6	14.53
2025-03	120.92	88.86	94.99	97.7	2998.1	523.3	1226.1	2011.8	15011.4	16.65	14.57
2025-04	121.84	89.95	94.85	97.88	3020.8	529.7	1224.2	2015.5	15037.4	16.73	14.61
2025-05	122.42	90.2	94.67	98.09	3035.4	531.2	1221.9	2019.8	15027.8	16.8	14.65
2025-06	122.69	90.22	94.39	97.98	3041.9	531.3	1218.3	2017.7	14995.7	16.86	14.69
2025-07	123.61	90.41	94.09	97.7	3064.9	532.4	1214.4	2011.9	14955.4	17.01	14.73
2025-08	124.19	90.56	94.05	97.88	3079.1	533.3	1213.9	2015.6	14959.6	17.07	14.76
2025-09	124.61	90.07	93.79	97.72	3089.5	530.4	1210.5	2012.3	14932.8	17.14	14.78
2025-10	124.84	89	94.09	98.22	3095.2	524.1	1214.4	2022.6	14928.8	17.17	14.83
2025-11	125.41	88.61	93.92	98.51	3109.3	521.8	1212.2	2028.5	14949.7	17.22	14.86
2025-12	125.68	88.64	93.99	98.64	3116.2	522	1213.1	2031.2	14946.3	17.25	14.89
2026-01	126.52	88.28	94.08	99.71	3137	519.9	1214.3	2053.2	15007.3	17.29	14.94
2026-02	125.86	88.64	93.91	99.47	3120.5	522	1212.1	2048.3	15005	17.22	14.94
2026-03	127.13	88.55	93.71	99.4	3152	521.5	1209.5	2046.9	15011	17.35	14.97
2026-04	127.39	87.23	93.56	99.55	3158.4	513.7	1207.6	2049.9	15004.6	17.39	15
2026-05	127.73	87.32	93.47	99.72	3166.9	514.2	1206.4	2053.4	14980.5	17.45	15.01
2026-06	128.12	87.33	93.22	99.79	3176.5	514.3	1203.2	2054.8	14977	17.5	15.04
2026-07	128.26	87.01	93.12	99.43	3180	512.4	1201.9	2047.4	14953	17.54	15.05

The old growth engines ran in reverse

Index the signature industries to February 2020 and the split is almost cartoonish. California healthcare payrolls sit 28 percent above that pre-pandemic month. Information sits 13 percent below it. Manufacturing is 7 percent lower. Leisure and hospitality has clawed back to within 1 percent. The information gap is not just a California mood. National information payrolls are down about 4.5 percent over the same span. California's drop is nearly three times as steep. A state that used to over-index on tech and entertainment now under-indexes on the recovery in those same files.

Film is the rawer version of that story, and it has to be handled carefully. Motion picture and sound recording jobs are published only as not-seasonally-adjusted counts, so the honest comparison is July to July. In July 2019 California reported 145,600 of those jobs. In July 2022, after the first rebound, the count hit 169,500. In July 2026 it was 121,000 — 17 percent below July 2019 and well below that 2022 peak. Strikes, streaming retrenchment and production flight all live in that line. The payroll survey will not tell you which one dominated. It will tell you the jobs did not come back.

None of this measures unemployment, underemployment, or whether a $26,000 job counts as work. The establishment survey counts payroll slots, including part-time jobs, and it misses most farm work. It also revises. The files used here are the BLS snapshot dated 24 August 2026, benchmarked to 2025. Later revisions can move the last year of history. What they are unlikely to do is turn a 753,000-job healthcare boom and a shrinking information payroll into a broad-based recovery. The campaigns can keep skipping the subject. The job count is not skipping it with them.

Line chart of California healthcare, information, manufacturing and leisure payroll indexes from 2019 to July 2026, with healthcare rising well above 120 and information falling below 90. — Seasonally adjusted California payrolls for four industries, indexed to February 2020 = 100. Health care and social assistance is up more than 28 percent; information is down about 13 percent and manufacturing about 7 percent. Leisure and hospitality has only just returned to its pre-pandemic level. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, snapshot dated 24 August 2026. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment.

month	healthcare_index	information_index	manufacturing_index	leisure_index	healthcare_thousands	information_thousands	manufacturing_thousands	leisure_thousands	rest_of_economy_thousands	ca_healthcare_share_pct	us_healthcare_share_pct
2019-01	96.18	95.35	100.19	98	2384.8	561.5	1293.1	2018	14934.9	13.77	13.44
2019-02	96.48	96.42	100.17	98.19	2392.2	567.8	1292.9	2022	14940	13.8	13.46
2019-03	96.68	95.99	100.05	98.41	2397	565.3	1291.3	2026.5	14958.4	13.81	13.48
2019-04	96.88	94.33	100.11	98.53	2402.1	555.5	1292.1	2028.9	14957.9	13.84	13.49
2019-05	97.18	94.82	100.14	98.6	2409.5	558.4	1292.5	2030.3	14975.6	13.86	13.51
2019-06	97.51	95.99	100.18	98.83	2417.7	565.3	1293	2035.1	15005.4	13.88	13.52
2019-07	97.88	96.04	99.92	98.79	2426.9	565.6	1289.7	2034.3	15005.2	13.92	13.53
2019-08	98.27	96.74	100.16	98.71	2436.5	569.7	1292.8	2032.6	15028.6	13.95	13.55
2019-09	98.57	98.28	100.16	99.07	2443.9	578.8	1292.8	2040	15034.1	13.98	13.56
2019-10	98.75	96.72	100.18	99.3	2448.5	569.6	1293	2044.8	15050.4	13.99	13.59
2019-11	99.21	97.64	100.15	99.52	2459.9	575	1292.6	2049.3	15099.9	14.01	13.61
2019-12	99.42	97.37	100.14	99.67	2464.9	573.4	1292.5	2052.4	15111.1	14.02	13.62
2020-01	99.66	98.98	100.23	99.88	2471	582.9	1293.7	2056.7	15167.1	14.01	13.63
2020-02	100	100	100	100	2479.4	588.9	1290.7	2059.2	15181.5	14.04	13.64
2020-03	99.72	99.97	99.54	96.35	2472.4	588.7	1284.7	1984.1	15011.2	14.14	13.69
2020-04	90.6	87.18	90.44	51.73	2246.4	513.4	1167.3	1065.3	12675.1	15.05	14.17
2020-05	92.12	87.2	92.22	53.91	2283.9	513.5	1190.3	1110.2	12825.1	15.12	14.18
2020-06	94.77	86.35	94.03	63.41	2349.7	508.5	1213.6	1305.7	13277.6	15.04	14.05
2020-07	95.29	87.79	93.36	63.18	2362.6	517	1205	1301.1	13306.8	15.08	14.02
2020-08	95.73	88.54	93.76	62.77	2373.6	521.4	1210.1	1292.5	13388.1	15.06	13.96
2020-09	96.37	88.81	94.11	65.82	2389.5	523	1214.7	1355.3	13525.1	15.01	13.94
2020-10	97.07	90.22	94.45	69.47	2406.8	531.3	1219.1	1430.6	13710.9	14.93	13.94
2020-11	97.41	91.65	94.51	70.95	2415.2	539.7	1219.9	1460.9	13770.2	14.92	13.95
2020-12	97.89	92.17	94.64	65.79	2427.2	542.8	1221.5	1354.8	13676.9	15.07	14.01
2021-01	97.39	90.19	94.3	61.58	2414.6	531.1	1217.1	1268.1	13591.4	15.09	13.93
2021-02	97.93	90.37	94.85	67.7	2428.1	532.2	1224.2	1394.1	13781.8	14.98	13.91
2021-03	98.33	92.48	95.28	70.44	2438.1	544.6	1229.8	1450.6	13905.2	14.92	13.88
2021-04	98.9	94.67	95.46	75.16	2452.1	557.5	1232.1	1547.6	14046.7	14.86	13.88
2021-05	99.05	96.57	95.66	77.62	2455.8	568.7	1234.7	1598.4	14154.1	14.79	13.84
2021-06	99.36	96.18	95.74	80.39	2463.5	566.4	1235.7	1655.4	14216.7	14.77	13.76
2021-07	99.61	96.55	96.22	84.22	2469.8	568.6	1241.9	1734.2	14409	14.63	13.68
2021-08	99.71	100.76	96.37	85.49	2472.2	593.4	1243.8	1760.5	14499.7	14.57	13.63
2021-09	99.51	98.28	96.36	86.29	2467.3	578.8	1243.7	1776.8	14500.2	14.54	13.59
2021-10	100.38	100.42	97.52	88.4	2488.7	591.4	1258.7	1820.4	14723.4	14.46	13.54
2021-11	100.7	101.34	98.02	89.12	2496.7	596.8	1265.1	1835.2	14781.2	14.45	13.5
2021-12	101.02	101.09	98.41	90.02	2504.7	595.3	1270.2	1853.6	14842.4	14.44	13.47
2022-01	100.27	102.51	98.69	89.55	2486.1	603.7	1273.8	1844.1	14866.8	14.33	13.44
2022-02	100.8	103.79	99.3	90.89	2499.2	611.2	1281.7	1871.7	14994.8	14.29	13.43
2022-03	101.37	104.18	99.61	91.69	2513.3	613.5	1285.7	1888.1	15045.1	14.31	13.43
2022-04	102.02	104.62	100.03	92.5	2529.6	616.1	1291.1	1904.7	15087.3	14.36	13.44
2022-05	102.49	105.55	100.12	93.08	2541.1	621.6	1292.3	1916.8	15100.3	14.4	13.45
2022-06	102.97	105.99	100.33	93.9	2553	624.2	1295	1933.6	15135.3	14.43	13.46
2022-07	103.26	106.59	100.69	94.65	2560.2	627.7	1299.6	1949.1	15177.8	14.43	13.47
2022-08	103.67	106.95	100.89	95.15	2570.3	629.8	1302.2	1959.4	15204.9	14.46	13.49
2022-09	104.32	105.65	100.85	95.44	2586.4	622.2	1301.7	1965.4	15205.5	14.54	13.52
2022-10	104.6	105.03	100.89	95.75	2593.4	618.5	1302.2	1971.6	15186	14.59	13.55
2022-11	105.13	104.11	100.91	96.3	2606.6	613.1	1302.4	1983.1	15188	14.65	13.57
2022-12	105.52	103.62	100.84	96.43	2616.2	610.2	1301.5	1985.7	15187.4	14.69	13.62
2023-01	105.63	101.99	100.84	96.37	2619.1	600.6	1301.5	1984.4	15136.8	14.75	13.63
2023-02	106.25	100	100.71	96.84	2634.3	588.9	1299.8	1994.2	15148.3	14.81	13.65
2023-03	106.66	99.13	100.53	97.2	2644.5	583.8	1297.6	2001.6	15130.3	14.88	13.69
2023-04	107.6	97.27	100.22	96.87	2667.9	572.8	1293.6	1994.7	15095.9	15.02	13.71
2023-05	108.64	96.5	100.05	97.36	2693.7	568.3	1291.3	2004.9	15126.3	15.12	13.74
2023-06	108.98	94.82	99.83	97.75	2702	558.4	1288.5	2012.9	15146.4	15.14	13.77
2023-07	109.26	93.31	99.14	97.87	2709	549.5	1279.6	2015.4	15095.8	15.21	13.83
2023-08	110.03	91.61	99.05	97.99	2728.1	539.5	1278.5	2017.8	15107.8	15.3	13.87
2023-09	111.1	91.29	99.17	98.24	2754.6	537.6	1280	2022.9	15125.9	15.41	13.91
2023-10	111.09	90.73	99.02	98.14	2754.4	534.3	1278	2020.9	15090.5	15.44	13.95
2023-11	111.62	91	98.4	98.14	2767.5	535.9	1270	2020.9	15091.1	15.5	14
2023-12	112.49	91.93	98.34	98.26	2789.1	541.4	1269.3	2023.4	15120	15.57	14.04
2024-01	113.14	92.04	98.42	99.16	2805.1	542	1270.3	2041.8	15221.9	15.56	14.07
2024-02	113.73	92	97.8	98.26	2819.8	541.8	1262.3	2023.4	15136	15.7	14.11
2024-03	114.39	92.73	97.58	98.07	2836.1	546.1	1259.5	2019.4	15132.4	15.78	14.15
2024-04	114.77	92.27	97.37	97.85	2845.6	543.4	1256.7	2015	15090.7	15.87	14.19
2024-05	115.33	91.92	97.09	97.82	2859.5	541.3	1253.2	2014.4	15074.1	15.94	14.23
2024-06	115.89	91.58	96.99	97.55	2873.3	539.3	1251.8	2008.7	15055.4	16.03	14.26
2024-07	116.68	91.78	96.61	97.67	2892.9	540.5	1247	2011.2	15055.9	16.12	14.29
2024-08	117.29	91.97	96.4	97.31	2908.2	541.6	1244.2	2003.9	15056.7	16.19	14.32
2024-09	117.78	91.75	96.28	97.21	2920.3	540.3	1242.7	2001.7	15068.5	16.23	14.36
2024-10	118.5	91.05	95.98	98.26	2938.1	536.2	1238.8	2023.4	15114	16.28	14.41
2024-11	119.04	91.37	95.86	98.1	2951.4	538.1	1237.3	2020.1	15097.9	16.35	14.44
2024-12	119.25	90.17	95.6	97.9	2956.6	531	1233.9	2016	15049.3	16.42	14.47
2025-01	119.59	88.81	95.48	97.91	2965.1	523	1232.4	2016.1	15059.7	16.45	14.51
2025-02	120.56	90.07	95.27	97.64	2989.1	530.4	1229.6	2010.5	15014.8	16.6	14.53
2025-03	120.92	88.86	94.99	97.7	2998.1	523.3	1226.1	2011.8	15011.4	16.65	14.57
2025-04	121.84	89.95	94.85	97.88	3020.8	529.7	1224.2	2015.5	15037.4	16.73	14.61
2025-05	122.42	90.2	94.67	98.09	3035.4	531.2	1221.9	2019.8	15027.8	16.8	14.65
2025-06	122.69	90.22	94.39	97.98	3041.9	531.3	1218.3	2017.7	14995.7	16.86	14.69
2025-07	123.61	90.41	94.09	97.7	3064.9	532.4	1214.4	2011.9	14955.4	17.01	14.73
2025-08	124.19	90.56	94.05	97.88	3079.1	533.3	1213.9	2015.6	14959.6	17.07	14.76
2025-09	124.61	90.07	93.79	97.72	3089.5	530.4	1210.5	2012.3	14932.8	17.14	14.78
2025-10	124.84	89	94.09	98.22	3095.2	524.1	1214.4	2022.6	14928.8	17.17	14.83
2025-11	125.41	88.61	93.92	98.51	3109.3	521.8	1212.2	2028.5	14949.7	17.22	14.86
2025-12	125.68	88.64	93.99	98.64	3116.2	522	1213.1	2031.2	14946.3	17.25	14.89
2026-01	126.52	88.28	94.08	99.71	3137	519.9	1214.3	2053.2	15007.3	17.29	14.94
2026-02	125.86	88.64	93.91	99.47	3120.5	522	1212.1	2048.3	15005	17.22	14.94
2026-03	127.13	88.55	93.71	99.4	3152	521.5	1209.5	2046.9	15011	17.35	14.97
2026-04	127.39	87.23	93.56	99.55	3158.4	513.7	1207.6	2049.9	15004.6	17.39	15
2026-05	127.73	87.32	93.47	99.72	3166.9	514.2	1206.4	2053.4	14980.5	17.45	15.01
2026-06	128.12	87.33	93.22	99.79	3176.5	514.3	1203.2	2054.8	14977	17.5	15.04
2026-07	128.26	87.01	93.12	99.43	3180	512.4	1201.9	2047.4	14953	17.54	15.05

Sources and methods

This is retrospective enrichment using pinned local snapshots, not an as-known-on-the-edition-date reconstruction. The research was compiled on 11 September 2026 for the 4 September 2026 State-News edition. Observation months run from January 2019 through July 2026. The BLS State and Area Employment and Current Employment Statistics snapshots are dated 24 August 2026 (release identifier bls-sm-snapshot-2026-08-24 and bls-ce-snapshot-2026-08-24), with a 2025 benchmark year recorded in the series metadata. Later BLS revisions may change recent months.

Payroll figures are seasonally adjusted all-employees counts in thousands, except motion-picture jobs, which are not seasonally adjusted and are compared July-to-July only. State totals come from the CES state and area program; U.S. totals come from the national CES. They are the same family of establishment surveys but are not addable into a single closed system. Null observations were not treated as zeros; these series had no nulls, no duplicate periods and no conflicting duplicate values in the extract window. Supersector employment summed to statewide total nonfarm in July 2026 (difference of zero after rounding). Health care and social assistance is nested inside private education and health; it is shown separately because that is the industry named in the underlying reporting. Indexes use February 2020 = 100. Percent changes and job-change arithmetic were calculated from the saved extracts in reproducible code. Missing is not zero. These are descriptive payroll comparisons, not estimates of unemployment, labor-force participation, living-wage work, or causal effects of policy, migration or AI.

Research completed 2026-09-11, for the September 4, 2026 news edition. This is retrospective analysis, not a reconstruction of information available that day.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment: Source 1, Source 2
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics: Source 1, Source 2

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Sources and methods