Research
The school-confidence crash is not a missing-payroll mystery
A confidence crash, and a payroll that did not vanish
A new Gallup/Walton Family Foundation poll, published this week, found that only 32% of American adults are satisfied with the quality of K-12 education — an 11-point drop in two years and the lowest reading in 27 years of asking. Dissatisfaction hit 67%. Parents are still about twice as happy with their own child's school as adults are with "the nation's schools," which is the usual American split between the classroom you can see and the one on cable news. The political overlay is obvious: Democrats' satisfaction fell hardest after President Donald Trump returned to office. That is a mood. It is not, by itself, a headcount.
The official books tell a less cinematic story. Local government education — the closest national payroll series for public K-12, including teachers, aides, bus drivers and the rest of the district workforce — employed 8.14 million people in July 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis. That is 2.2% above July 2019, before the pandemic closed classrooms. It is also only 1.1% above February 2020. The whole U.S. job market, by contrast, is 5.2% larger than in July 2019. The jobs came back. They did not come back as fast as everything else. And they have slipped from a mid-2025 high of about 8.22 million. BLS Current Employment Statistics
None of that proves Gallup wrong. Payrolls cannot measure reading scores, phone-ban fights or whether a superintendent still answers the phone. They can answer a narrower question that the poll invites: if Americans think schools are falling apart, is that because the public-school workforce already shrank? On the national books, no.
Public-school payrolls recovered. They still lagged the rest of the job market.
View exact chart values
| year | local_gov_edu_thousands | state_gov_edu_thousands | private_elem_thousands | private_edu_thousands | total_nonfarm_millions | local_index_jul2019 | nonfarm_index_jul2019 | private_elem_index_jul2019 | state_index_jul2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 5918.7 | 1732 | 460.7 | 1687.6 | 109.815 | 74.3 | 72.8 | 42.1 | 69.3 |
| 1991 | 6033.4 | 1767.9 | 478.4 | 1732.6 | 108.29 | 75.8 | 71.7 | 43.7 | 70.7 |
| 1992 | 6086 | 1804.4 | 469.3 | 1707.6 | 108.793 | 76.4 | 72.1 | 42.9 | 72.2 |
| 1993 | 6253 | 1830.8 | 503 | 1758.8 | 111.054 | 78.5 | 73.6 | 46 | 73.2 |
| 1994 | 6347.5 | 1884.5 | 547.7 | 1902.5 | 114.608 | 79.7 | 75.9 | 50.1 | 75.4 |
| 1995 | 6459.4 | 1916.6 | 571.7 | 2012.9 | 117.382 | 81.1 | 77.8 | 52.3 | 76.7 |
| 1996 | 6600.3 | 1913.1 | 604.4 | 2092.4 | 120.019 | 82.9 | 79.5 | 55.3 | 76.5 |
| 1997 | 6767.5 | 1921.2 | 624.9 | 2162.3 | 123.114 | 85 | 81.6 | 57.1 | 76.9 |
| 1998 | 6927.8 | 1927.6 | 651.5 | 2226.3 | 126.212 | 87 | 83.6 | 59.6 | 77.1 |
| 1999 | 7119.8 | 1980.1 | 680 | 2317.4 | 129.422 | 89.4 | 85.7 | 62.2 | 79.2 |
| 2000 | 7272.4 | 2021.5 | 711.5 | 2398.2 | 132.228 | 91.3 | 87.6 | 65.1 | 80.9 |
| 2001 | 7457 | 2130.3 | 745.9 | 2509.6 | 132.172 | 93.6 | 87.6 | 68.2 | 85.2 |
| 2002 | 7661.9 | 2286.5 | 796.7 | 2692.6 | 130.584 | 96.2 | 86.5 | 72.8 | 91.5 |
| 2003 | 7779.1 | 2246.3 | 803.5 | 2692 | 130.184 | 97.7 | 86.3 | 73.5 | 89.9 |
| 2004 | 7757.5 | 2238.8 | 828.3 | 2755.7 | 131.854 | 97.4 | 87.4 | 75.7 | 89.6 |
| 2005 | 7904.7 | 2262.4 | 832.9 | 2836.6 | 134.3 | 99.3 | 89 | 76.2 | 90.5 |
| 2006 | 7899.9 | 2293.5 | 826.9 | 2870.9 | 136.529 | 99.2 | 90.5 | 75.6 | 91.7 |
| 2007 | 7945.7 | 2310.8 | 830.1 | 2928.9 | 138.044 | 99.8 | 91.5 | 75.9 | 92.4 |
| 2008 | 8119.4 | 2364.9 | 864.7 | 3070.2 | 137.497 | 102 | 91.1 | 79.1 | 94.6 |
| 2009 | 8066.7 | 2314.5 | 852.3 | 3086.7 | 130.662 | 101.3 | 86.6 | 77.9 | 92.6 |
| 2010 | 8026.3 | 2372.3 | 851 | 3160 | 130.415 | 100.8 | 86.4 | 77.8 | 94.9 |
| 2011 | 7862 | 2379.5 | 868.1 | 3246.8 | 131.992 | 98.7 | 87.4 | 79.4 | 95.2 |
| 2012 | 7771.8 | 2391.6 | 901.1 | 3350.4 | 134.157 | 97.6 | 88.9 | 82.4 | 95.7 |
| 2013 | 7765.4 | 2375.3 | 907.9 | 3363.3 | 136.391 | 97.5 | 90.4 | 83 | 95 |
| 2014 | 7847.6 | 2371.3 | 940.6 | 3421.2 | 139.072 | 98.5 | 92.1 | 86 | 94.9 |
| 2015 | 7896.4 | 2396.1 | 968 | 3471 | 141.991 | 99.2 | 94.1 | 88.5 | 95.8 |
| 2016 | 7962.4 | 2433.2 | 1023.6 | 3568.8 | 144.52 | 100 | 95.7 | 93.6 | 97.3 |
| 2017 | 7917.7 | 2490.7 | 1063.9 | 3662.6 | 146.772 | 99.4 | 97.2 | 97.3 | 99.6 |
| 2018 | 7945.5 | 2480.7 | 1080.3 | 3727 | 149.02 | 99.8 | 98.7 | 98.8 | 99.2 |
| 2019 | 7964 | 2499.9 | 1093.7 | 3752.5 | 150.937 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2020 | 7385.3 | 2386.4 | 1012.5 | 3397.6 | 139.255 | 92.7 | 92.3 | 92.6 | 95.5 |
| 2021 | 7661.4 | 2506 | 1079.5 | 3606.1 | 146.762 | 96.2 | 97.2 | 98.7 | 100.2 |
| 2022 | 7892.4 | 2477.9 | 1119.1 | 3777.9 | 153.072 | 99.1 | 101.4 | 102.3 | 99.1 |
| 2023 | 7994.3 | 2561.5 | 1172.7 | 3858.7 | 156.043 | 100.4 | 103.4 | 107.2 | 102.5 |
| 2024 | 8140.4 | 2599.6 | 1197 | 3973.1 | 157.748 | 102.2 | 104.5 | 109.4 | 104 |
| 2025 | 8224.4 | 2626.7 | 1231.8 | 4052 | 158.542 | 103.3 | 105 | 112.6 | 105.1 |
| 2026 | 8142.2 | 2609.8 | — | 4049.7 | 158.858 | 102.2 | 105.2 | — | 104.4 |
The 2020 hole was real. Private schools climbed out faster.
The pandemic still shows up as a trench. Local government education fell from 8.06 million jobs in February 2020 to 7.33 million in May 2020, a 9% drop. That was milder than the collapse in total nonfarm employment, which lost more than a seventh of its jobs in two months. Schools did not empty as completely as restaurants. They also did not refill as quickly. By February 2022, the overall job market was essentially back to its pre-pandemic level. Local government education was still 4% short. It did not recross the February 2020 line until early 2024.
Private elementary and secondary schools — a much smaller payroll, just over a million jobs — followed a different path. They also lost workers in spring 2020. Then they ran ahead of both public schools and the rest of the economy. By June 2026 they employed about 1.25 million people, roughly 15% above June 2019. (July 2026 is missing from this extract, so the comparison uses June.) State government education, which is mostly public colleges rather than K-12, is 4.4% above July 2019. If there is a boom in "school jobs," it is easier to find in private buildings than in district ones.
That split matters for the political fight Gallup is measuring. Trump's school-choice scholarships, which the poll's analysts flagged as a Democratic sore point, sit next to a private K-12 payroll that has been growing faster than the public one for years, not just since 2025. Correlation is not a voucher referendum. It is a reminder that the labor market already moved while the argument was still warming up.
The 2020 hole in school jobs was smaller than the national collapse. The catch-up was slower.
View exact chart values
| month | local_gov_edu_thousands | state_gov_edu_thousands | private_elem_thousands | total_nonfarm_thousands | local_index_feb2019 | nonfarm_index_feb2019 | private_elem_index_feb2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01 | 7854.1 | 2392 | 952.3 | 140568 | 98.3 | 93.7 | 87.5 |
| 2015-02 | 7864.3 | 2398 | 956.9 | 140827 | 98.4 | 93.8 | 87.9 |
| 2015-03 | 7852.6 | 2392.3 | 959.5 | 140923 | 98.3 | 93.9 | 88.2 |
| 2015-04 | 7863.4 | 2393.6 | 960.1 | 141196 | 98.4 | 94.1 | 88.2 |
| 2015-05 | 7870.2 | 2393 | 963.5 | 141538 | 98.5 | 94.3 | 88.5 |
| 2015-06 | 7872.8 | 2396.3 | 969.9 | 141709 | 98.5 | 94.4 | 89.1 |
| 2015-07 | 7896.4 | 2396.1 | 968 | 141991 | 98.8 | 94.6 | 89 |
| 2015-08 | 7892.5 | 2401.7 | 965.3 | 142125 | 98.8 | 94.7 | 88.7 |
| 2015-09 | 7849.4 | 2406.9 | 971 | 142275 | 98.2 | 94.8 | 89.2 |
| 2015-10 | 7867.5 | 2407.8 | 974.7 | 142579 | 98.5 | 95 | 89.6 |
| 2015-11 | 7875.9 | 2412.2 | 981.5 | 142808 | 98.6 | 95.2 | 90.2 |
| 2015-12 | 7875.4 | 2411.4 | 987.8 | 143077 | 98.6 | 95.3 | 90.8 |
| 2016-01 | 7878.7 | 2414.6 | 993.8 | 143210 | 98.6 | 95.4 | 91.3 |
| 2016-02 | 7886.3 | 2410.1 | 994.5 | 143406 | 98.7 | 95.6 | 91.4 |
| 2016-03 | 7904.5 | 2412.4 | 998.6 | 143662 | 98.9 | 95.7 | 91.8 |
| 2016-04 | 7903.6 | 2414.3 | 1004 | 143854 | 98.9 | 95.9 | 92.3 |
| 2016-05 | 7913.6 | 2411.2 | 1009.7 | 143900 | 99 | 95.9 | 92.8 |
| 2016-06 | 7867.8 | 2427.4 | 1018.4 | 144147 | 98.5 | 96.1 | 93.6 |
| 2016-07 | 7962.4 | 2433.2 | 1023.6 | 144520 | 99.6 | 96.3 | 94.1 |
| 2016-08 | 7942.7 | 2431.5 | 1033.6 | 144661 | 99.4 | 96.4 | 95 |
| 2016-09 | 7938.5 | 2466.5 | 1037.5 | 144967 | 99.3 | 96.6 | 95.3 |
| 2016-10 | 7919.1 | 2447.1 | 1039.9 | 145065 | 99.1 | 96.7 | 95.6 |
| 2016-11 | 7899.8 | 2449.4 | 1047.1 | 145183 | 98.9 | 96.7 | 96.2 |
| 2016-12 | 7910.5 | 2456.8 | 1052.8 | 145408 | 99 | 96.9 | 96.8 |
| 2017-01 | 7919.3 | 2471.1 | 1055.8 | 145628 | 99.1 | 97 | 97 |
| 2017-02 | 7921.5 | 2472.9 | 1058.9 | 145846 | 99.1 | 97.2 | 97.3 |
| 2017-03 | 7923.7 | 2474.7 | 1062.1 | 145970 | 99.2 | 97.3 | 97.6 |
| 2017-04 | 7922.1 | 2483.6 | 1062.9 | 146175 | 99.1 | 97.4 | 97.7 |
| 2017-05 | 7923.6 | 2498.6 | 1064.4 | 146380 | 99.2 | 97.5 | 97.8 |
| 2017-06 | 7922.5 | 2489.8 | 1064.8 | 146583 | 99.1 | 97.7 | 97.9 |
| 2017-07 | 7917.7 | 2490.7 | 1063.9 | 146772 | 99.1 | 97.8 | 97.8 |
| 2017-08 | 7871.4 | 2478.7 | 1061.8 | 146919 | 98.5 | 97.9 | 97.6 |
| 2017-09 | 7915.3 | 2457.7 | 1068.8 | 147008 | 99.1 | 98 | 98.2 |
| 2017-10 | 7931.4 | 2465.6 | 1074.9 | 147149 | 99.3 | 98.1 | 98.8 |
| 2017-11 | 7939.5 | 2474.5 | 1072.8 | 147372 | 99.4 | 98.2 | 98.6 |
| 2017-12 | 7941.7 | 2471.1 | 1071.4 | 147523 | 99.4 | 98.3 | 98.5 |
| 2018-01 | 7929.4 | 2480.2 | 1072.8 | 147660 | 99.2 | 98.4 | 98.6 |
| 2018-02 | 7967 | 2481.9 | 1082 | 148054 | 99.7 | 98.7 | 99.4 |
| 2018-03 | 7965.9 | 2487.1 | 1079.8 | 148280 | 99.7 | 98.8 | 99.2 |
| 2018-04 | 7961.4 | 2485.6 | 1080.4 | 148420 | 99.6 | 98.9 | 99.3 |
| 2018-05 | 7971.3 | 2480 | 1082 | 148742 | 99.8 | 99.1 | 99.4 |
| 2018-06 | 7990 | 2482.4 | 1079.5 | 148960 | 100 | 99.3 | 99.2 |
| 2018-07 | 7945.5 | 2480.7 | 1080.3 | 149020 | 99.4 | 99.3 | 99.3 |
| 2018-08 | 7974.2 | 2483.7 | 1077.7 | 149277 | 99.8 | 99.5 | 99 |
| 2018-09 | 7966.1 | 2493.9 | 1077.5 | 149358 | 99.7 | 99.5 | 99 |
| 2018-10 | 7964.9 | 2497 | 1081 | 149527 | 99.7 | 99.6 | 99.3 |
| 2018-11 | 7965.4 | 2479 | 1081.5 | 149617 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.4 |
| 2018-12 | 7983 | 2492.8 | 1085.2 | 149809 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.7 |
| 2019-01 | 7986.4 | 2486.5 | 1087.9 | 150060 | 99.9 | 100 | 100 |
| 2019-02 | 7991 | 2495.1 | 1088.1 | 150067 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2019-03 | 8015.5 | 2505.8 | 1090.7 | 150295 | 100.3 | 100.2 | 100.2 |
| 2019-04 | 8032.3 | 2509.5 | 1095.4 | 150591 | 100.5 | 100.3 | 100.7 |
| 2019-05 | 8009.6 | 2466.5 | 1094.2 | 150618 | 100.2 | 100.4 | 100.6 |
| 2019-06 | 7983 | 2482.9 | 1092.6 | 150838 | 99.9 | 100.5 | 100.4 |
| 2019-07 | 7964 | 2499.9 | 1093.7 | 150937 | 99.7 | 100.6 | 100.5 |
| 2019-08 | 7980.6 | 2519.2 | 1095.6 | 151169 | 99.9 | 100.7 | 100.7 |
| 2019-09 | 7997.9 | 2524.3 | 1096.9 | 151365 | 100.1 | 100.9 | 100.8 |
| 2019-10 | 8011.3 | 2540.7 | 1093.7 | 151460 | 100.3 | 100.9 | 100.5 |
| 2019-11 | 8028.9 | 2550.6 | 1094.3 | 151667 | 100.5 | 101.1 | 100.6 |
| 2019-12 | 8033.4 | 2553.7 | 1091.6 | 151794 | 100.5 | 101.2 | 100.3 |
| 2020-01 | 8039.6 | 2559.5 | 1090.2 | 152031 | 100.6 | 101.3 | 100.2 |
| 2020-02 | 8055.6 | 2603 | 1095.1 | 152293 | 100.8 | 101.5 | 100.6 |
| 2020-03 | 8049.7 | 2555 | 1083.2 | 150895 | 100.7 | 100.6 | 99.5 |
| 2020-04 | 7627 | 2412 | 1004.6 | 130426 | 95.4 | 86.9 | 92.3 |
| 2020-05 | 7328 | 2365.1 | 1004.8 | 133040 | 91.7 | 88.7 | 92.3 |
| 2020-06 | 7342 | 2379.4 | 1021.3 | 137671 | 91.9 | 91.7 | 93.9 |
| 2020-07 | 7385.3 | 2386.4 | 1012.5 | 139255 | 92.4 | 92.8 | 93.1 |
| 2020-08 | 7527.1 | 2424.6 | 1020.2 | 140821 | 94.2 | 93.8 | 93.8 |
| 2020-09 | 7419.3 | 2391.7 | 1020.1 | 141770 | 92.8 | 94.5 | 93.8 |
| 2020-10 | 7396.3 | 2374.5 | 1025 | 142460 | 92.6 | 94.9 | 94.2 |
| 2020-11 | 7379.9 | 2376.6 | 1029.1 | 142733 | 92.4 | 95.1 | 94.6 |
| 2020-12 | 7377.4 | 2384.4 | 1034 | 142548 | 92.3 | 95 | 95 |
| 2021-01 | 7419.7 | 2444.1 | 1038.9 | 142863 | 92.9 | 95.2 | 95.5 |
| 2021-02 | 7422.4 | 2457 | 1040.9 | 143380 | 92.9 | 95.5 | 95.7 |
| 2021-03 | 7458.1 | 2490.9 | 1048 | 144232 | 93.3 | 96.1 | 96.3 |
| 2021-04 | 7487.8 | 2486 | 1053.5 | 144587 | 93.7 | 96.3 | 96.8 |
| 2021-05 | 7526 | 2487.2 | 1059.9 | 145065 | 94.2 | 96.7 | 97.4 |
| 2021-06 | 7634.5 | 2512.8 | 1067.9 | 145820 | 95.5 | 97.2 | 98.1 |
| 2021-07 | 7661.4 | 2506 | 1079.5 | 146762 | 95.9 | 97.8 | 99.2 |
| 2021-08 | 7763 | 2488 | 1086 | 147314 | 97.1 | 98.2 | 99.8 |
| 2021-09 | 7717 | 2472.2 | 1091.7 | 147771 | 96.6 | 98.5 | 100.3 |
| 2021-10 | 7665.4 | 2472.8 | 1097.4 | 148572 | 95.9 | 99 | 100.9 |
| 2021-11 | 7686.8 | 2468.8 | 1097.5 | 149230 | 96.2 | 99.4 | 100.9 |
| 2021-12 | 7706 | 2470.7 | 1104 | 149816 | 96.4 | 99.8 | 101.5 |
| 2022-01 | 7725.9 | 2446.3 | 1108 | 150006 | 96.7 | 100 | 101.8 |
| 2022-02 | 7730.2 | 2428.4 | 1110.5 | 150825 | 96.7 | 100.5 | 102.1 |
| 2022-03 | 7745.4 | 2411.8 | 1114.4 | 151315 | 96.9 | 100.8 | 102.4 |
| 2022-04 | 7756.5 | 2423.2 | 1115.5 | 151623 | 97.1 | 101 | 102.5 |
| 2022-05 | 7767.2 | 2447.8 | 1118.3 | 151924 | 97.2 | 101.2 | 102.8 |
| 2022-06 | 7778.4 | 2456.1 | 1118.4 | 152358 | 97.3 | 101.5 | 102.8 |
| 2022-07 | 7892.4 | 2477.9 | 1119.1 | 153072 | 98.8 | 102 | 102.8 |
| 2022-08 | 7862.1 | 2481.6 | 1143.2 | 153362 | 98.4 | 102.2 | 105.1 |
| 2022-09 | 7845.7 | 2482.8 | 1143.9 | 153582 | 98.2 | 102.3 | 105.1 |
| 2022-10 | 7829.6 | 2472.2 | 1143.5 | 153939 | 98 | 102.6 | 105.1 |
| 2022-11 | 7869.9 | 2489.1 | 1145.9 | 154242 | 98.5 | 102.8 | 105.3 |
| 2022-12 | 7875.4 | 2456.2 | 1143.3 | 154342 | 98.6 | 102.8 | 105.1 |
| 2023-01 | 7906.9 | 2515.3 | 1145.5 | 154776 | 98.9 | 103.1 | 105.3 |
| 2023-02 | 7927.9 | 2527.8 | 1146.8 | 155066 | 99.2 | 103.3 | 105.4 |
| 2023-03 | 7934.6 | 2531.9 | 1147.5 | 155134 | 99.3 | 103.4 | 105.5 |
| 2023-04 | 7939.8 | 2542 | 1146.9 | 155375 | 99.4 | 103.5 | 105.4 |
| 2023-05 | 7958.2 | 2561.9 | 1158.5 | 155655 | 99.6 | 103.7 | 106.5 |
| 2023-06 | 7969.8 | 2567.7 | 1166.6 | 155880 | 99.7 | 103.9 | 107.2 |
| 2023-07 | 7994.3 | 2561.5 | 1172.7 | 156043 | 100 | 104 | 107.8 |
| 2023-08 | 8021.3 | 2570 | 1175.3 | 156261 | 100.4 | 104.1 | 108 |
| 2023-09 | 8030.4 | 2579.9 | 1166.7 | 156417 | 100.5 | 104.2 | 107.2 |
| 2023-10 | 8038 | 2591.2 | 1168.8 | 156576 | 100.6 | 104.3 | 107.4 |
| 2023-11 | 8059.8 | 2587.2 | 1173.8 | 156703 | 100.9 | 104.4 | 107.9 |
| 2023-12 | 8079 | 2586.9 | 1177.5 | 156857 | 101.1 | 104.5 | 108.2 |
| 2024-01 | 8082.1 | 2591.6 | 1181.4 | 157032 | 101.1 | 104.6 | 108.6 |
| 2024-02 | 8098.6 | 2600.4 | 1185.8 | 157238 | 101.3 | 104.8 | 109 |
| 2024-03 | 8130.2 | 2600.1 | 1191.6 | 157466 | 101.7 | 104.9 | 109.5 |
| 2024-04 | 8123 | 2606.4 | 1197.3 | 157530 | 101.7 | 105 | 110 |
| 2024-05 | 8126.7 | 2598.5 | 1198.4 | 157608 | 101.7 | 105 | 110.1 |
| 2024-06 | 8106.2 | 2589.1 | 1202 | 157695 | 101.4 | 105.1 | 110.5 |
| 2024-07 | 8140.4 | 2599.6 | 1197 | 157748 | 101.9 | 105.1 | 110 |
| 2024-08 | 8146 | 2618.7 | 1205.2 | 157757 | 101.9 | 105.1 | 110.8 |
| 2024-09 | 8148.4 | 2625.7 | 1209.6 | 157912 | 102 | 105.2 | 111.2 |
| 2024-10 | 8160.2 | 2630.2 | 1214.8 | 157945 | 102.1 | 105.2 | 111.6 |
| 2024-11 | 8165.2 | 2635.5 | 1216.1 | 158079 | 102.2 | 105.3 | 111.8 |
| 2024-12 | 8173.5 | 2644.1 | 1221.9 | 158316 | 102.3 | 105.5 | 112.3 |
| 2025-01 | 8183.5 | 2653.1 | 1221.8 | 158268 | 102.4 | 105.5 | 112.3 |
| 2025-02 | 8191.4 | 2649 | 1228.6 | 158310 | 102.5 | 105.5 | 112.9 |
| 2025-03 | 8198.8 | 2647.7 | 1229.3 | 158377 | 102.6 | 105.5 | 113 |
| 2025-04 | 8203.9 | 2645.5 | 1233.9 | 158485 | 102.7 | 105.6 | 113.4 |
| 2025-05 | 8207.9 | 2636.3 | 1236 | 158498 | 102.7 | 105.6 | 113.6 |
| 2025-06 | 8219.8 | 2637.8 | 1230.8 | 158478 | 102.9 | 105.6 | 113.1 |
| 2025-07 | 8224.4 | 2626.7 | 1231.8 | 158542 | 102.9 | 105.6 | 113.2 |
| 2025-08 | 8227 | 2614 | 1236 | 158472 | 103 | 105.6 | 113.6 |
| 2025-09 | 8234 | 2621.2 | 1250.1 | 158548 | 103 | 105.7 | 114.9 |
| 2025-10 | 8239.6 | 2622.4 | 1256.3 | 158408 | 103.1 | 105.6 | 115.5 |
| 2025-11 | 8237.6 | 2605.8 | 1255.7 | 158449 | 103.1 | 105.6 | 115.4 |
| 2025-12 | 8231.8 | 2602.6 | 1258 | 158432 | 103 | 105.6 | 115.6 |
| 2026-01 | 8234.7 | 2612.2 | 1259.2 | 158592 | 103 | 105.7 | 115.7 |
| 2026-02 | 8229.5 | 2604.8 | 1258 | 158436 | 103 | 105.6 | 115.6 |
| 2026-03 | 8240.5 | 2599.7 | 1263.8 | 158650 | 103.1 | 105.7 | 116.1 |
| 2026-04 | 8229.5 | 2599.1 | 1260.8 | 158798 | 103 | 105.8 | 115.9 |
| 2026-05 | 8203.4 | 2596.7 | 1260.2 | 158861 | 102.7 | 105.9 | 115.8 |
| 2026-06 | 8191.8 | 2601.1 | 1254.9 | 158881 | 102.5 | 105.9 | 115.3 |
| 2026-07 | 8142.2 | 2609.8 | — | 158858 | 101.9 | 105.9 | — |
Florida never got the jobs back. Michigan did.
The national average hides a map. Because state education payrolls are not seasonally adjusted, summer months are a trap — Florida's local government education count falls by about a quarter every June when school lets out. Comparing May to May keeps the lights on. On that basis, Florida is still 5.3% below May 2019, at 349,000 jobs versus 368,500. California is only 1.1% above. Texas is up 3.6%. Michigan, a smaller system, is up 6.0%. BLS State and Area Employment
Those four states are the ones with monthly observations in this extract. New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania series in the catalogue were annual-only and were left out rather than mixed in. Even this smaller map is enough to kill the idea of a single national staffing story. A parent in Broward County and a parent in Kent County are not looking at the same payroll.
The series is also broader than "teachers." Local government education includes anyone on a district or school payroll. A district can add aides and still lose classroom veterans. The data cannot separate those. What they can say is that, outside Florida in this set, the public-school workforce is not the vanished industry of campaign ads.
Florida’s public-school payroll is still short of 2019. Michigan’s is not.
View exact chart values
| state | may_2019_thousands | may_2020_thousands | may_2026_thousands | pct_change_may2019 | pct_change_may2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 368.5 | 346 | 349 | -5.3 | 0.9 |
| California | 1029.1 | 915.5 | 1040.3 | 1.1 | 13.6 |
| Texas | 891.3 | 834.5 | 923.8 | 3.6 | 10.7 |
| Michigan | 196.7 | 188 | 208.6 | 6 | 11 |
The household K-12 bill rose. It is still a rounding error in the family budget.
Public schools are mostly paid by taxes, not by the checkout line, so household spending is the wrong microscope for district budgets. It is the right one for private tuition, fees and the other bills families actually write. On that ledger, spending on nursery, elementary and secondary schools rose from $49.4 billion in 2019 to $63.0 billion in 2024, up 27.5% in current dollars. Household higher-education spending rose less, about 10%, to $206 billion. BEA personal consumption expenditures
Zoom out and even the K-12 increase looks small. All household education spending — K-12, college, books, vocational schools — was 2.08% of personal consumption in 2019 and 1.81% in 2024. Total household spending rose faster, about 38% over those five years. Families spent more on private K-12. They spent even more on everything else. That is not an argument that tuition is cheap. It is an argument that the official consumption accounts do not show education eating the household the way housing or health care does.
Put the pieces next to Gallup and the picture is uneven, not empty. Public-school payrolls recovered, then stalled a little in 2026, and still trail the rest of the job market. Private elementary jobs grew faster. Household K-12 bills rose in dollar terms and shrank as a share of spending. Florida is the clear laggard among the states that can be compared month to month. If Americans are the least satisfied with schools in a generation, it is not because the national employment count went missing. The harder story is the one the payrolls cannot see: what those jobs are being asked to do, and whether anyone still believes the system works.
Household K-12 bills rose. They still grew slower than the rest of spending.
View exact chart values
| year | k12_billions | higher_ed_billions | all_education_billions | total_pce_billions | edu_share_pct | k12_share_pct | k12_index_2019 | higher_index_2019 | pce_index_2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 20.706 | 61.261 | 107.12 | 5536.8 | 1.93 | 0.37 | 41.9 | 32.8 | 38.3 |
| 1998 | 21.487 | 66.027 | 115.244 | 5877.2 | 1.96 | 0.37 | 43.5 | 35.3 | 40.7 |
| 1999 | 22.77 | 70.774 | 123.931 | 6283.8 | 1.97 | 0.36 | 46.1 | 37.8 | 43.5 |
| 2000 | 24.124 | 76.776 | 134.291 | 6767.2 | 1.98 | 0.36 | 48.8 | 41 | 46.9 |
| 2001 | 25.687 | 82.917 | 143.615 | 7073.8 | 2.03 | 0.36 | 52 | 44.3 | 49 |
| 2002 | 26.856 | 86.986 | 149.527 | 7348.9 | 2.03 | 0.37 | 54.3 | 46.5 | 50.9 |
| 2003 | 27.696 | 94.981 | 159.516 | 7740.7 | 2.06 | 0.36 | 56 | 50.8 | 53.6 |
| 2004 | 28.564 | 102.481 | 168.997 | 8232 | 2.05 | 0.35 | 57.8 | 54.8 | 57 |
| 2005 | 29.559 | 110.853 | 180.507 | 8769.1 | 2.06 | 0.34 | 59.8 | 59.3 | 60.7 |
| 2006 | 31.003 | 119.676 | 193.072 | 9277.2 | 2.08 | 0.33 | 62.7 | 64 | 64.3 |
| 2007 | 32.758 | 128.285 | 205.998 | 9746.6 | 2.11 | 0.34 | 66.3 | 68.6 | 67.5 |
| 2008 | 34.18 | 135.278 | 216.429 | 10050.1 | 2.15 | 0.34 | 69.1 | 72.3 | 69.6 |
| 2009 | 34.967 | 144.297 | 226.052 | 9891.2 | 2.29 | 0.35 | 70.7 | 77.1 | 68.5 |
| 2010 | 35.572 | 154.979 | 240.315 | 10260.3 | 2.34 | 0.35 | 72 | 82.9 | 71.1 |
| 2011 | 35.884 | 161.111 | 248.207 | 10698.9 | 2.32 | 0.34 | 72.6 | 86.1 | 74.1 |
| 2012 | 36.496 | 163.218 | 250.589 | 11047.4 | 2.27 | 0.33 | 73.8 | 87.3 | 76.5 |
| 2013 | 37.837 | 166.691 | 255.988 | 11388.2 | 2.25 | 0.33 | 76.5 | 89.1 | 78.9 |
| 2014 | 38.951 | 169.282 | 261.977 | 11874.5 | 2.21 | 0.33 | 78.8 | 90.5 | 82.2 |
| 2015 | 41.178 | 173.152 | 269.964 | 12297.4 | 2.2 | 0.33 | 83.3 | 92.6 | 85.2 |
| 2016 | 44.184 | 177.279 | 278.969 | 12726.8 | 2.19 | 0.35 | 89.4 | 94.8 | 88.2 |
| 2017 | 45.787 | 180.589 | 285.644 | 13290.6 | 2.15 | 0.34 | 92.6 | 96.5 | 92.1 |
| 2018 | 48.152 | 183.459 | 293.495 | 13934.4 | 2.11 | 0.35 | 97.4 | 98.1 | 96.5 |
| 2019 | 49.43 | 187.047 | 300.77 | 14437.5 | 2.08 | 0.34 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2020 | 48.934 | 188.017 | 296.1 | 14231.4 | 2.08 | 0.34 | 99 | 100.5 | 98.6 |
| 2021 | 54.207 | 190.43 | 313.2 | 16119.7 | 1.94 | 0.34 | 109.7 | 101.8 | 111.7 |
| 2022 | 57.473 | 197.19 | 331.633 | 17690 | 1.87 | 0.32 | 116.3 | 105.4 | 122.5 |
| 2023 | 60.021 | 202.524 | 346.87 | 18833.1 | 1.84 | 0.32 | 121.4 | 108.3 | 130.4 |
| 2024 | 63.042 | 206.341 | 360.723 | 19896 | 1.81 | 0.32 | 127.5 | 110.3 | 137.8 |
Families still spend far more on college than on private K-12
View exact chart values
| year | k12_billions | higher_ed_billions | all_education_billions | total_pce_billions | edu_share_pct | k12_share_pct | k12_index_2019 | higher_index_2019 | pce_index_2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 20.706 | 61.261 | 107.12 | 5536.8 | 1.93 | 0.37 | 41.9 | 32.8 | 38.3 |
| 1998 | 21.487 | 66.027 | 115.244 | 5877.2 | 1.96 | 0.37 | 43.5 | 35.3 | 40.7 |
| 1999 | 22.77 | 70.774 | 123.931 | 6283.8 | 1.97 | 0.36 | 46.1 | 37.8 | 43.5 |
| 2000 | 24.124 | 76.776 | 134.291 | 6767.2 | 1.98 | 0.36 | 48.8 | 41 | 46.9 |
| 2001 | 25.687 | 82.917 | 143.615 | 7073.8 | 2.03 | 0.36 | 52 | 44.3 | 49 |
| 2002 | 26.856 | 86.986 | 149.527 | 7348.9 | 2.03 | 0.37 | 54.3 | 46.5 | 50.9 |
| 2003 | 27.696 | 94.981 | 159.516 | 7740.7 | 2.06 | 0.36 | 56 | 50.8 | 53.6 |
| 2004 | 28.564 | 102.481 | 168.997 | 8232 | 2.05 | 0.35 | 57.8 | 54.8 | 57 |
| 2005 | 29.559 | 110.853 | 180.507 | 8769.1 | 2.06 | 0.34 | 59.8 | 59.3 | 60.7 |
| 2006 | 31.003 | 119.676 | 193.072 | 9277.2 | 2.08 | 0.33 | 62.7 | 64 | 64.3 |
| 2007 | 32.758 | 128.285 | 205.998 | 9746.6 | 2.11 | 0.34 | 66.3 | 68.6 | 67.5 |
| 2008 | 34.18 | 135.278 | 216.429 | 10050.1 | 2.15 | 0.34 | 69.1 | 72.3 | 69.6 |
| 2009 | 34.967 | 144.297 | 226.052 | 9891.2 | 2.29 | 0.35 | 70.7 | 77.1 | 68.5 |
| 2010 | 35.572 | 154.979 | 240.315 | 10260.3 | 2.34 | 0.35 | 72 | 82.9 | 71.1 |
| 2011 | 35.884 | 161.111 | 248.207 | 10698.9 | 2.32 | 0.34 | 72.6 | 86.1 | 74.1 |
| 2012 | 36.496 | 163.218 | 250.589 | 11047.4 | 2.27 | 0.33 | 73.8 | 87.3 | 76.5 |
| 2013 | 37.837 | 166.691 | 255.988 | 11388.2 | 2.25 | 0.33 | 76.5 | 89.1 | 78.9 |
| 2014 | 38.951 | 169.282 | 261.977 | 11874.5 | 2.21 | 0.33 | 78.8 | 90.5 | 82.2 |
| 2015 | 41.178 | 173.152 | 269.964 | 12297.4 | 2.2 | 0.33 | 83.3 | 92.6 | 85.2 |
| 2016 | 44.184 | 177.279 | 278.969 | 12726.8 | 2.19 | 0.35 | 89.4 | 94.8 | 88.2 |
| 2017 | 45.787 | 180.589 | 285.644 | 13290.6 | 2.15 | 0.34 | 92.6 | 96.5 | 92.1 |
| 2018 | 48.152 | 183.459 | 293.495 | 13934.4 | 2.11 | 0.35 | 97.4 | 98.1 | 96.5 |
| 2019 | 49.43 | 187.047 | 300.77 | 14437.5 | 2.08 | 0.34 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2020 | 48.934 | 188.017 | 296.1 | 14231.4 | 2.08 | 0.34 | 99 | 100.5 | 98.6 |
| 2021 | 54.207 | 190.43 | 313.2 | 16119.7 | 1.94 | 0.34 | 109.7 | 101.8 | 111.7 |
| 2022 | 57.473 | 197.19 | 331.633 | 17690 | 1.87 | 0.32 | 116.3 | 105.4 | 122.5 |
| 2023 | 60.021 | 202.524 | 346.87 | 18833.1 | 1.84 | 0.32 | 121.4 | 108.3 | 130.4 |
| 2024 | 63.042 | 206.341 | 360.723 | 19896 | 1.81 | 0.32 | 127.5 | 110.3 | 137.8 |
Sources and methods
Payroll figures are U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics, seasonally adjusted, in thousands of jobs, from a snapshot dated 24 August 2026 covering months through July 2026. Local government education is the national series CES9093161101. It includes more than classroom teachers. State government education is mostly public higher education, not K-12. Private elementary and secondary schools are CES6561110001. The July 2026 observation for that private series was missing from the extract, so private-school comparisons use June 2026 versus June 2019.
State figures are BLS State and Area Employment, not seasonally adjusted. May is compared with May because summer months drop when school is out. California, Texas, Florida and Michigan had monthly statewide series. Matching New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania series returned no monthly observations and were not used. Missing is not zero.
Household spending is BEA personal consumption expenditures by function, United States, millions of current dollars, 1997–2024, release vintage bea-sapce-2025-09-26. Nursery, elementary and secondary schools is household spending on those services, not public-school appropriations. Education's share of PCE is household education spending divided by total PCE. Current dollars are not inflation-adjusted.
Indexes use July 2019 = 100 for annual snapshots and February 2019 = 100 for monthly lines. Duplicate period keys kept the first observation. No causal effect is inferred from the Gallup poll, from payroll changes, or from comparisons across sectors. Observation dates are not release dates. Provider lag is normal.
Research completed 2026-09-13, for the September 12, 2026 news edition. The available source data may cover earlier periods; see the observation periods and source vintages above.