The Battleground Jobs Ledger: What Official Payrolls Say About the States Voting Hardest

Seven weeks out, two scoreboards

Election Day is about seven weeks away, and the state coverage in this edition reads like a road movie: James Talarico and Ken Paxton deadlocked in Texas (FOX8/The Hill), Kamala Harris flying into Michigan to stand next to Abdul El-Sayed at a maternal-health roundtable (The Hill), an AARP poll nudging Mary Peltola ahead of Dan Sullivan in Alaska (The Hill), Xavier Becerra's lead quietly stretching in California (ABC30), and Oregon's governor's race called a toss-up with 50 days to go. Campaigns sell narratives about the economy. Payrolls keep a more boring, more honest ledger.

So we pulled the ledger — BLS state payroll employment, seasonally adjusted, for the ten states this edition's own reporting is watching: Texas, Michigan, Alaska, California, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Oregon. July 2026 is the newest month in the dataset we work from (the snapshot was cut before August's state figures landed), and July's numbers are preliminary. With those caveats stamped on, the picture is sharper than any poll crosstab.

Six states are growing. Four are shrinking.

Over the year to July 2026, Texas leads the group with payrolls up 1.16%, about 165,600 jobs — no other featured state comes close in headcount. North Carolina follows at +1.02%, and Alaska (+0.71%), California (+0.63%), Ohio (+0.31%) and Michigan (+0.18%) add jobs at a jog. Then the ledger turns negative: Iowa (-0.11%), Maine (-0.14%), Georgia (-0.31%) and Oregon (-0.91%) employ fewer people than a year ago.

The Oregon number is the least surprising in the set. This edition's own reporting has Oregon's building trades in open crisis, with some union locals topping 20% unemployment and members commuting to Idaho and Nevada for work (Philomath News). The state payroll series says the same thing from the employer side: Oregon's total nonfarm count fell about 18,000 over the year and another 10,900 within 2026 itself. Georgia is the subtler wobble — a state that gained lavishly through 2023 and 2024 now leaking 15,700 jobs on an annual basis while both parties' Senate spenders keep it on the marquee.

Horizontal bar chart ranking ten battleground states by year-over-year payroll employment growth from July 2025 to July 2026, seasonally adjusted: Texas +1.16% and North Carolina +1.02% lead; Alaska +0.71%, California +0.63%, Ohio +0.31% and Michigan +0.18% follow; Iowa -0.11%, Maine -0.14%, Georgia -0.31% and Oregon -0.91% are below zero. — Payroll employment change, July 2025 to July 2026, seasonally adjusted, all employees in thousands of jobs. Texas and North Carolina lead the ten featured battlegrounds; four states are shedding jobs. Source: BLS State and Area Employment (snapshot 2026-08-24; July 2026 preliminary). Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — State and Area Employment (state CES payroll series and 12-month state diffusion index), pinned snapshot 2026-08-24.

state	name	emp_jul2026_k	emp_jul2025_k	emp_feb2020_k	yy_change_k	yy_pct	vs_feb2020_pct	ytd2026_change_k
TX	Texas	14468	14302.4	12958.1	165.6	1.16	11.65	104.9
NC	North Carolina	5112	5060.4	4641.4	51.6	1.02	10.14	40
AK	Alaska	339.7	337.3	329.4	2.4	0.71	3.13	2.5
CA	California	18133	18020.3	17660.9	112.7	0.63	2.67	-11.3
OH	Ohio	5690	5672.6	5608.5	17.4	0.31	1.45	16.1
MI	Michigan	4498.4	4490.2	4449.9	8.2	0.18	1.09	23.2
IA	Iowa	1583.1	1584.9	1588.3	-1.8	-0.11	-0.33	2.3
ME	Maine	660.8	661.7	638.2	-0.9	-0.14	3.54	0.1
GA	Georgia	4977.5	4993.2	4675.2	-15.7	-0.31	6.47	-3.9
OR	Oregon	1963.2	1981.2	1969.2	-18	-0.91	-0.3	-10.9

Two states never got all their jobs back

Index every state to February 2020 = 100 and the pandemic era compresses into one picture. Michigan took the deepest initial plunge of the group — payroll employment fell to roughly 76% of its pre-pandemic level in April 2020 — and its climb back has been the slowest of the ten: July 2026 employment sits just 1.09% above the February 2020 mark. Texas (+11.65%) and North Carolina (+10.14%) are in another galaxy; Georgia, despite its current wobble, remains 6.47% above.

And then there are two. Oregon (-0.30%) and Iowa (-0.33%) still have fewer payroll jobs than in the month before the pandemic — six years later. Iowa's case is striking because the state barely moved in either direction: a 2021-22 recovery that stalled around the pre-pandemic line, and a 2025 slide that has not fully reversed. Both states host marquee races this fall; both enter it with employment ledgers that never closed the 2020 account.

Line chart indexing monthly payroll employment to February 2020 equals 100 for Texas, North Carolina, California, Georgia, Michigan, Oregon and Iowa through July 2026. All plunge in April 2020, with Michigan deepest near 76; Texas and North Carolina climb to about 111 and 110; California reaches about 103; Georgia about 106; Michigan near 101; Oregon and Iowa hover around 100, ending slightly below 100. — Monthly payroll employment indexed to February 2020 = 100, seasonally adjusted, through July 2026. The 2020 crash, the long climb, and the endgame: Texas and North Carolina far above their pre-pandemic level, Oregon and Iowa still below it. Source: BLS State and Area Employment (snapshot 2026-08-24). Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — State and Area Employment (state CES payroll series and 12-month state diffusion index), pinned snapshot 2026-08-24.

period	TX	MI	AK	CA	GA	IA	ME	NC	OH	OR
2019-01	97.86	99.73	99.61	98.07	98.46	100	99.31	98.52	99.59	98.74
2019-02	98.12	99.77	99.7	98.14	98.59	99.68	99.34	98.52	99.55	98.45
2019-03	98.21	99.91	99.91	98.27	98.68	99.67	99.42	98.74	99.64	98.62
2019-04	98.42	99.87	99.88	98.3	98.72	99.92	99.4	98.72	99.71	98.92
2019-05	98.66	99.88	100.18	98.44	98.89	99.96	99.78	98.85	99.75	99.03
2019-06	98.86	99.84	100.85	98.65	99.01	99.91	99.92	99.01	99.8	99.13
2019-07	99.04	99.79	100.55	98.7	99.11	99.99	99.39	99.02	99.83	99.33
2019-08	99.26	99.98	100.46	98.89	99.3	99.99	99.83	99.15	99.89	99.54
2019-09	99.38	99.98	100.82	98.96	99.45	99.96	100.03	99.41	99.84	99.61
2019-10	99.4	99.42	100.39	99.08	99.44	100.01	99.91	99.48	99.83	99.77
2019-11	99.67	100.01	100.12	99.43	99.57	99.96	99.86	99.61	99.98	99.92
2019-12	99.7	100.25	99.67	99.52	99.77	100.13	99.87	99.66	100.02	99.99
2020-01	99.87	99.99	99.76	99.87	100.03	100.05	100.09	99.97	100.06	100.02
2020-02	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
2020-03	99.59	99.29	99.42	99	99.52	99.54	99.4	99.52	99.1	99.23
2020-04	88.84	76.3	86.07	84.49	86.97	88.94	85.24	87.83	84.31	85.67
2020-05	90.71	79.2	86.16	85.55	89.77	89.73	87.45	89.48	87.44	86.67
2020-06	92.52	86.66	86.85	88.49	92.08	92.33	88.91	92.41	91.56	89.59
2020-07	92.54	89.33	86.76	88.72	92.67	93.63	90.14	93.41	92.5	91.1
2020-08	93.39	90.73	88.25	89.25	93.7	94.19	91.7	94.65	93.24	92.02
2020-09	93.96	91.74	89.95	90.11	94.15	94.89	94.3	95.53	94.08	92.54
2020-10	94.64	92.58	92.81	91.26	95.04	95.39	95.24	96.34	94.55	93.05
2020-11	95	92.49	93.72	91.65	95.5	95.27	95.77	96.75	94.71	93.36
2020-12	95.39	91.05	93.66	91.19	96.1	95.62	95.57	97.36	94.78	92.27
2021-01	95.72	91.79	93.44	90.63	96.28	96.05	95.99	97.39	95.1	92.27
2021-02	95.41	93.01	93.41	91.78	96.45	95.75	96.55	97.6	95.04	92.87
2021-03	96.39	93.48	93.81	92.54	96.84	96.22	97.07	98.14	95.36	94.09
2021-04	96.78	93.04	94.05	93.42	96.88	96.4	97.26	98.39	95.24	94.53
2021-05	97.22	93.26	92.87	94.05	97.39	96.42	97.24	98.81	95.4	94.59
2021-06	97.75	93.67	92.9	94.45	97.85	96.71	97.07	99.13	95.69	94.84
2021-07	98.65	94.64	93.78	95.57	98.98	97.36	97.77	99.99	96.44	96.34
2021-08	98.85	94.77	93.99	96.1	98.94	97.39	97.74	99.74	96.54	96.23
2021-09	99.3	95.02	94.51	96.07	99.07	97.23	97.71	99.78	96.18	96.2
2021-10	100.41	96.22	95.36	97.46	100.27	97.68	98.26	100.87	97.09	96.76
2021-11	100.82	96.6	96.14	97.83	100.59	97.56	98.51	101.16	97.4	97.15
2021-12	101.38	96.78	96.24	98.22	100.85	98	98.46	101.65	97.55	97.32
2022-01	101.37	96.79	96.05	98.26	101.01	97.97	98.59	101.35	97.68	97.43
2022-02	102.11	97.27	96.24	99.05	101.65	98.62	99.15	102.27	97.98	97.97
2022-03	102.4	97.66	96.51	99.42	101.82	98.61	99.59	102.7	98.17	98.27
2022-04	103.1	98.12	96.63	99.75	102.44	98.67	100.03	103	98.59	98.49
2022-05	103.39	97.97	96.66	99.89	102.58	98.68	99.84	103.26	98.56	98.44
2022-06	103.61	98	96.36	100.16	102.74	99.01	99.48	103.62	98.52	98.42
2022-07	104.54	98.58	97.12	100.44	103.45	99.1	100.38	104.3	98.93	99.67
2022-08	104.91	98.62	96.99	100.65	103.44	99.16	100.3	104.49	98.98	99.75
2022-09	105.3	98.67	96.84	100.74	103.76	99.48	100.49	104.73	99.04	99.73
2022-10	105.51	98.77	97.02	100.67	103.95	99.54	100.33	104.73	99.15	99.54
2022-11	105.72	99.02	97.81	100.76	104.11	99.65	100.75	104.9	99.2	99.55
2022-12	105.89	99.1	97.75	100.81	104.22	99.62	100.75	105.1	99.23	99.76
2023-01	106.46	99.56	98.39	100.54	104.6	99.76	101.49	105.66	99.72	100.63
2023-02	106.63	99.62	98.6	100.69	104.7	99.94	101.43	105.82	99.83	100.65
2023-03	106.9	99.76	98.72	100.64	104.8	99.9	101.44	105.98	99.9	100.71
2023-04	106.95	100.06	99	100.58	104.64	100.2	101.41	105.9	99.88	100.7
2023-05	107.16	100.41	98.63	100.9	104.68	100.09	101.79	106.12	99.99	100.85
2023-06	107.63	100.54	99.91	101.06	105.06	100.38	102.32	106.77	100.4	101.18
2023-07	107.43	100.71	99.73	100.81	104.96	100.33	102.54	106.51	100.33	100.83
2023-08	107.67	100.51	99.91	100.99	105.17	100.45	102.35	106.74	100.38	100.9
2023-09	107.94	100.74	100.49	101.24	105.47	100.54	102.3	106.97	100.5	101.17
2023-10	107.97	100.12	99.97	101.04	105.39	100.71	102.29	107.16	100.29	100.88
2023-11	108.06	100.31	100.18	101.12	105.6	100.64	102.38	107.25	100.32	101.01
2023-12	108.23	100.66	100.27	101.41	105.74	100.79	102.51	107.67	100.45	101.01
2024-01	108.43	100.55	100.21	102.07	105.7	100.07	102.9	107.56	100.6	100.43
2024-02	108.58	100.71	100.67	101.67	105.76	100.95	102.9	107.73	100.66	100.84
2024-03	108.73	100.91	101.18	101.74	106.18	101.01	103.01	107.94	100.84	100.99
2024-04	108.8	100.81	101.24	101.56	106.2	100.96	102.88	108.08	100.72	101.15
2024-05	109.02	100.96	101.49	101.54	106.44	101	103.35	108.28	100.85	101.12
2024-06	109.22	100.92	101.31	101.52	106.47	100.76	103.84	108.32	101	101.24
2024-07	108.92	100.67	101.67	101.63	106.32	100.64	103.59	108.12	100.86	101.13
2024-08	109.47	101.07	101.58	101.72	106.36	100.77	103.78	108.27	100.85	101.18
2024-09	109.62	101.08	102.22	101.86	106.4	100.5	103.74	108.5	101.03	101.46
2024-10	109.74	100.71	101.94	102.22	106.41	100.44	103.71	108.07	100.98	101.39
2024-11	109.9	100.82	102.06	102.2	106.58	100.44	103.68	108.3	101.06	101.2
2024-12	110.04	100.8	102.22	101.95	106.67	100.4	103.68	108.34	101.08	101.33
2025-01	110.1	100.62	102.58	102.06	106.41	100.72	103.81	108.4	100.86	101.21
2025-02	110.21	100.75	102.55	101.94	106.58	100.46	103.45	108.44	100.98	100.88
2025-03	110.25	100.78	102.58	101.97	106.53	100.52	103.57	108.46	100.98	100.77
2025-04	110.45	100.83	102.7	102.25	106.8	100.45	103.49	108.81	101.11	100.9
2025-05	110.52	101.02	102.79	102.28	106.81	100.49	103.87	108.96	101.16	100.86
2025-06	110.29	100.87	102.46	102.13	106.58	100.33	103.59	108.86	101.01	100.75
2025-07	110.37	100.91	102.4	102.04	106.8	99.79	103.68	109.03	101.14	100.61
2025-08	110.43	100.86	102.43	102.14	106.8	99.8	103.54	109.08	101.25	100.59
2025-09	110.41	100.8	102.16	102.05	106.59	99.69	103.59	109.04	101.09	100.3
2025-10	110.33	100.66	102.31	102.06	106.33	99.43	102.95	108.96	100.91	100.06
2025-11	110.41	100.63	102.19	102.25	106.4	99.58	103.38	109.11	100.92	100.16
2025-12	110.66	100.65	102.28	102.27	106.59	99.35	103.27	109.2	100.98	100.17
2026-01	110.84	100.57	102.37	102.74	106.55	99.53	103.53	109.28	101.17	100.25
2026-02	110.79	100.46	102.34	102.63	106.48	99.24	103.6	109.21	101.08	99.9
2026-03	111.08	100.58	102.22	102.84	106.71	99.28	103.54	109.45	101.26	99.68
2026-04	111.14	100.78	102.49	102.84	106.85	99.55	103.67	109.91	101.41	99.71
2026-05	111.33	100.82	103.07	102.75	106.93	99.7	103.51	110.2	101.31	99.84
2026-06	111.64	100.92	103.28	102.79	106.66	99.87	103.48	110.15	101.36	99.9
2026-07	111.65	101.09	103.13	102.67	106.47	99.67	103.54	110.14	101.45	99.7

The California surprise: level up, momentum down

Ask which state is performing worst and the annual numbers indict Oregon. Ask which is losing momentum and the 2026-only numbers point somewhere else entirely. California added roughly 112,700 payroll jobs over the year to July — fourth-best in the group — but lost about 11,300 between January and July of this year. No other featured state pairs a positive annual gain with a shrinking current-year ledger by that margin.

The timing is awkward for the biggest governor's race on the map, where Xavier Becerra's lead over Steve Hilton keeps widening in the polls and cost-of-living complaints are the opposition's core pitch (ABC30, LA Times). Payrolls are not the price of gas or rent, and a five-month dip is not a trend line; but for a campaign being fought on economic competence, the newest official numbers run the wrong way. Michigan shows the opposite pattern — barely above pre-pandemic on level, yet +23,200 jobs within 2026, the third-fastest in-year gain of the group.

Horizontal bar chart of payroll employment change within 2026, January to July, in thousands of jobs: Texas +104.9, North Carolina +40, Michigan +23.2, Ohio +16.1, Alaska +2.5, Iowa +2.3, Maine +0.1, Georgia -3.9, Oregon -10.9, California -11.3. — Payroll employment change within 2026 (January to July), seasonally adjusted, thousands of jobs. Three of the ten battlegrounds — Georgia, Oregon and California — are already shedding jobs this year; California's stall is the surprise after a +112,700-job year. Source: BLS State and Area Employment (snapshot 2026-08-24; July 2026 preliminary). Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — State and Area Employment (state CES payroll series and 12-month state diffusion index), pinned snapshot 2026-08-24.

name	state	ytd2026_change_k	yy_pct
Texas	TX	104.9	1.16
North Carolina	NC	40	1.02
Michigan	MI	23.2	0.18
Ohio	OH	16.1	0.31
Alaska	AK	2.5	0.71
Iowa	IA	2.3	-0.11
Maine	ME	0.1	-0.14
Georgia	GA	-3.9	-0.31
Oregon	OR	-10.9	-0.91
California	CA	-11.3	0.63

Growing now versus recovered

Put the two questions on one chart — horizontal axis: year-over-year growth; vertical axis: payroll level versus February 2020 — and each battleground lands in a quadrant that tells its campaign story. Texas and North Carolina occupy the sweet spot, growing now and far above their old peaks. Georgia floats upper-left: a rich recovery that is currently eroding. Maine sits oddly — above pre-pandemic on level, slightly negative on the year, essentially flat.

The lower-left quadrant is the lonely one. Iowa and Oregon are the only two states that are both shrinking year-over-year and still below their February 2020 employment. If incumbents in those states want to run on the recovery, the payroll ledger gives them a one-word rebuttal: which recovery?.

Scatter plot with each of ten battleground states as a labelled point: horizontal axis is year-over-year payroll growth July 2025 to July 2026 in percent, vertical axis is payroll level versus February 2020 in percent. Texas and North Carolina sit upper right; Georgia upper left with a 6.5 percent recovery but shrinking payrolls; Iowa and Oregon lower left, still below pre-pandemic employment. — Each point is a state: current direction (right = adding jobs, year to July 2026) versus recovery level (up = above February 2020 payrolls). Georgia's upper-left spot means a big pandemic-era gain that is now eroding; Oregon and Iowa remain below their pre-pandemic employment. Source: BLS State and Area Employment (snapshot 2026-08-24; July 2026 preliminary). Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — State and Area Employment (state CES payroll series and 12-month state diffusion index), pinned snapshot 2026-08-24.

name	yy_pct	vs_feb2020_pct	yy_change_k
Texas	1.16	11.65	165.6
North Carolina	1.02	10.14	51.6
Alaska	0.71	3.13	2.4
California	0.63	2.67	112.7
Ohio	0.31	1.45	17.4
Michigan	0.18	1.09	8.2
Iowa	-0.11	-0.33	-1.8
Maine	-0.14	3.54	-0.9
Georgia	-0.31	6.47	-15.7
Oregon	-0.91	-0.3	-18

And the map itself has narrowed

One more series ties the ten together: BLS's 12-month state diffusion index, which measures the share of states with more payroll jobs than twelve months earlier. From spring 2021 through most of 2024 it sat pinned at 100 — every state adding jobs, an economy wide as a barn door. It slid through late 2024, then collapsed to 36.3 in November 2025 — the deepest reading of this cycle — before clawing back to 70.6 by July 2026, where it stood when the data window closed.

That is the macro backdrop every battleground inherits: even after the 2026 rebound, roughly three states in ten are still shedding jobs on an annual basis. A scoreboard that universal in 2022 could hide a lot of local weakness. This one cannot.

Area line chart of the BLS 12-month state employment diffusion index from January 2019 to July 2026: near 90 to 100 before 2020, zero through late 2020 during the pandemic, pinned at 100 from 2021 into 2024, sliding from late 2024 to a low of 36.3 in November 2025, then recovering to 70.6 by July 2026, with a reference line at 50 marking the halfway point. — BLS diffusion index, 12-month span, seasonally adjusted: the percentage of states with more payroll jobs than 12 months earlier. Universal growth (100) was the 2021-2024 norm; the index collapsed to 36.3 in November 2025 and stood at 70.6 in July 2026 — about three states in ten still shrinking. Source: BLS State and Area Employment (snapshot 2026-08-24; July 2026 preliminary). Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — State and Area Employment (state CES payroll series and 12-month state diffusion index), pinned snapshot 2026-08-24.

period	value
2019-01	100
2019-02	98
2019-03	95.1
2019-04	100
2019-05	96.1
2019-06	91.2
2019-07	92.2
2019-08	90.2
2019-09	90.2
2019-10	90.2
2019-11	90.2
2019-12	90.2
2020-01	94.1
2020-02	89.2
2020-03	54.9
2020-04	0
2020-05	0
2020-06	0
2020-07	0
2020-08	0
2020-09	0
2020-10	0
2020-11	2
2020-12	3.9
2021-01	3.9
2021-02	3.9
2021-03	5.9
2021-04	100
2021-05	100
2021-06	100
2021-07	100
2021-08	100
2021-09	100
2021-10	100
2021-11	100
2021-12	100
2022-01	100
2022-02	100
2022-03	100
2022-04	100
2022-05	100
2022-06	100
2022-07	100
2022-08	100
2022-09	100
2022-10	100
2022-11	100
2022-12	100
2023-01	100
2023-02	100
2023-03	100
2023-04	100
2023-05	100
2023-06	100
2023-07	100
2023-08	100
2023-09	100
2023-10	100
2023-11	100
2023-12	100
2024-01	98
2024-02	100
2024-03	100
2024-04	100
2024-05	100
2024-06	98
2024-07	98
2024-08	100
2024-09	98
2024-10	96.1
2024-11	96.1
2024-12	95.1
2025-01	88.2
2025-02	88.2
2025-03	82.4
2025-04	86.3
2025-05	80.4
2025-06	66.7
2025-07	75.5
2025-08	65.7
2025-09	47.1
2025-10	39.2
2025-11	36.3
2025-12	43.1
2026-01	51
2026-02	43.1
2026-03	42.2
2026-04	58.8
2026-05	59.8
2026-06	72.5
2026-07	70.6

What the ledger cannot tell you

Plain limits, stated plainly. Payrolls count jobs on employer payrolls — not unemployment, not wages, not rents or diesel prices, and not how any voter feels about any of it. July's state figures are preliminary and will be revised; August's estimates were published after this dataset's snapshot was cut, so the newest month analyzed here is July. The ten-state set is an editorial selection from this edition's coverage, not a statistical definition of 'battleground.'

What the ledger can tell you is where the economic ground actually sits under the campaign rhetoric. Six of the ten featured states enter the final stretch adding jobs; four are shedding them; two never recovered their pre-pandemic payrolls at all; and the biggest state on the map is watching its in-year gains evaporate. None of that determines an election. All of it will be quoted in one.

Sources and methods

Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment (state Current Employment Statistics), series 'Total Nonfarm / All Employees, In Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted', monthly, January 2019 through July 2026, plus the 12-month state employment diffusion index. Retrieved from the pinned read-only snapshot bls-sm-snapshot-2026-08-24 (product bls_sae); observations were read through extract_evidence and all arithmetic was run reproducibly in calculate.

Vintage and revisions: July 2026 is the newest month in the pinned snapshot. BLS published preliminary August state estimates after this snapshot was cut (for example, New Jersey's August report), so those figures are not included here; July 2026 observations carry preliminary status flags and are subject to benchmark and annual revision (series benchmark year 2025).

Measures: year-over-year change compares July 2025 with July 2026; the recovery comparison uses February 2020 as the pre-pandemic reference; within-year momentum compares January 2026 with July 2026. All values are seasonally adjusted establishment payrolls in thousands of jobs; they are not household income, unemployment rates or prices.

Battleground selection: the ten states (Alaska, California, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Texas) are the ones featured in this edition's campaign reporting. That is an editorial choice, not a statistical screen, and findings do not generalize to all competitive states.

Interpretation limits: payroll levels and growth describe employer payrolls only, say nothing directly about unemployment, wages or prices, and imply no causal effect on polling or election outcomes. The diffusion index measures the share of states with non-negative 12-month payroll change as published by BLS.

Research completed 2026-09-18, for the September 17, 2026 news edition. The available source data may cover earlier periods; see the observation periods and source vintages above.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — State and Area Employment (state CES payroll series and 12-month state diffusion index), pinned snapshot 2026-08-24: Source 1

Read the related State-News edition →

The Battleground Jobs Ledger: What Official Payrolls Say About the States Voting Hardest

Seven weeks out, two scoreboards

Six states are growing. Four are shrinking.

Ten battlegrounds, one jobs ledger

Two states never got all their jobs back

The long road back, state by state

The California surprise: level up, momentum down

This year's momentum, not last year's

Growing now versus recovered

Growing now versus recovered

And the map itself has narrowed

Job growth is no longer everywhere

What the ledger cannot tell you

Sources and methods