Research
California’s tax base did not pack up with the moving vans
A one-seventh economy is still a one-seventh economy
California voters are being asked to do something no other state has done: levy a one-time 5 percent tax on residents with more than $1 billion in net worth, retroactive to January 1, 2026. Supporters, including the Service Employees International Union, say the money would go to health care and education. Critics, including investor Mark Cuban, warn that founders and capital will leave. Reporting this week paired that fight with Internal Revenue Service county-level migration figures showing large net losses of tax filers from Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino counties. The implied story is simple: the Golden State is already leaking taxable people, and a wealth tax would open the tap.
Official state accounts tell a less cinematic story about the size of what remains. In 2025, California personal income was $3.59 trillion, or 13.73 percent of the U.S. total of $26.11 trillion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That share is a bit higher than in 2000 (13.08 percent). Inflation-adjusted GDP, which measures production inside the state rather than income received by residents, was $3.39 trillion in chained 2017 dollars, or 14.21 percent of the U.S. total — up from 12.66 percent in 2000. The income share peaked at 14.13 percent in 2020 and the GDP share at 14.63 percent in 2021; both eased, then stabilized. A state that still accounts for about one-seventh of the national economy is not a rounding error, even if some of its famous residents have a Texas ZIP code in the group chat.
Among the four largest states in this comparison, California’s 2025 personal-income total was still in a league of its own: $3.59 trillion against $2.29 trillion in Texas, $1.79 trillion in Florida and $1.78 trillion in New York. Those are current-dollar aggregates, not household paychecks, and they do not identify billionaires. They do mean that a tax aimed at a thin slice of California wealth is being debated against a backdrop of an enormous remaining base, not a vanished one. BEA personal income is residence-based. If a founder actually moves, the income eventually leaves the California total. If the founder stays and complains on social media, it does not.
California’s share of U.S. personal income and real GDP, 2000–2025
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| year | pi_share_pct | gdp_share_pct | ca_pi_billions | us_pi_billions | ca_rgdp_billions | us_rgdp_billions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 13.08 | 12.66 | 1127.6 | 8620.2 | 1784.3 | 14096 |
| 2001 | 13.01 | 12.54 | 1169.4 | 8990.1 | 1784.6 | 14230.7 |
| 2002 | 12.98 | 12.59 | 1187.3 | 9146.7 | 1821.5 | 14472.7 |
| 2003 | 13.09 | 12.74 | 1240.6 | 9474.7 | 1895.3 | 14877.3 |
| 2004 | 13.14 | 12.67 | 1315.2 | 10008.9 | 1956.7 | 15449.8 |
| 2005 | 13.17 | 12.77 | 1387.9 | 10540.8 | 2042.1 | 15988 |
| 2006 | 13.22 | 12.9 | 1493.2 | 11291.4 | 2120.4 | 16433.1 |
| 2007 | 13.09 | 12.94 | 1561.3 | 11925 | 2168.9 | 16762.4 |
| 2008 | 12.78 | 13.06 | 1588.3 | 12423.4 | 2192.3 | 16781.5 |
| 2009 | 12.77 | 12.91 | 1539.8 | 12058.3 | 2110.7 | 16349.1 |
| 2010 | 12.83 | 12.83 | 1610 | 12547.5 | 2153.9 | 16789.8 |
| 2011 | 12.88 | 12.86 | 1713.4 | 13299.8 | 2192.9 | 17052.4 |
| 2012 | 13.05 | 12.93 | 1814.8 | 13905.7 | 2255.4 | 17442.8 |
| 2013 | 13.09 | 13.14 | 1840.9 | 14063.3 | 2340.3 | 17812.2 |
| 2014 | 13.23 | 13.3 | 1955.7 | 14778.2 | 2428.7 | 18261.7 |
| 2015 | 13.56 | 13.54 | 2097 | 15467.1 | 2546 | 18799.6 |
| 2016 | 13.79 | 13.71 | 2191.1 | 15884.7 | 2623.7 | 19141.7 |
| 2017 | 13.78 | 13.97 | 2295 | 16659 | 2740.6 | 19612.1 |
| 2018 | 13.77 | 14.12 | 2411.1 | 17514.4 | 2851 | 20193.9 |
| 2019 | 13.84 | 14.34 | 2539.7 | 18349.6 | 2969.6 | 20715.7 |
| 2020 | 14.13 | 14.45 | 2770.5 | 19613.1 | 2930.7 | 20284.5 |
| 2021 | 14.05 | 14.63 | 3019.2 | 21484.2 | 3151.1 | 21532.4 |
| 2022 | 13.64 | 14.26 | 3021.6 | 22144.8 | 3147.2 | 22075.9 |
| 2023 | 13.5 | 14.1 | 3182.8 | 23577.2 | 3204 | 22723.7 |
| 2024 | 13.66 | 14.16 | 3400.2 | 24897.6 | 3306.9 | 23358.4 |
| 2025 | 13.73 | 14.21 | 3585.9 | 26109.8 | 3388.9 | 23850.4 |
Personal income in four large states, 2025
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| state | personal_income_billions |
|---|---|
| New York | 1777.2 |
| Florida | 1793.5 |
| Texas | 2294.6 |
| California | 3585.9 |
The clearer split is people, not the dollar totals
Where California has lagged is headcount. BEA midyear resident population, the denominator for per capita income, shows California up 5.4 percent from 2010 to 2025 — from 37.3 million to 39.4 million. The United States grew 10.5 percent over the same span. Texas grew 25.6 percent, to 31.7 million, and Florida 24.5 percent, to 23.5 million. New York grew 3.0 percent. Indexed to 2010, California’s line flattened after 2019, dipped in 2021–22, and had not recaptured its 2019 level by 2025. That is consistent with a state that is still huge and still growing slowly, not with a state that emptied out.
Population is not the same as the IRS tax-filer counts in this week’s coverage, and it is not a count of billionaires. A family that leaves takes one or more people and some income; a high earner who leaves takes fewer people and more income. The BEA series cannot separate those cases. What it can say is that California’s resident population has grown much more slowly than the two large, no-income-tax states that dominate the relocation conversation, while the state’s income and output shares of the U.S. totals have not collapsed. The moving vans are real. They have not, so far, taken California’s seventh of the national pie with them.
Population since 2010: California versus Texas, Florida and New York
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| year | California | Texas | Florida | New_York | United_States |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 91.1 | 83 | 85.2 | 97.8 | 91.2 |
| 2001 | 92.4 | 84.5 | 86.8 | 98.3 | 92.1 |
| 2002 | 93.4 | 85.9 | 88.6 | 98.5 | 93 |
| 2003 | 94.5 | 87.3 | 90.2 | 98.7 | 93.8 |
| 2004 | 95.3 | 88.7 | 92.4 | 98.7 | 94.6 |
| 2005 | 96 | 90.3 | 94.7 | 98.5 | 95.5 |
| 2006 | 96.5 | 92.6 | 96.4 | 98.4 | 96.4 |
| 2007 | 97.1 | 94.4 | 97.5 | 98.5 | 97.4 |
| 2008 | 98.1 | 96.3 | 98.3 | 98.9 | 98.3 |
| 2009 | 99 | 98.3 | 99 | 99.4 | 99.2 |
| 2010 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2011 | 100.9 | 101.5 | 101 | 100.9 | 100.8 |
| 2012 | 101.7 | 103.2 | 102.3 | 101.7 | 101.6 |
| 2013 | 102.6 | 104.7 | 103.5 | 102.4 | 102.4 |
| 2014 | 103.5 | 106.6 | 105 | 103 | 103.2 |
| 2015 | 104.4 | 108.5 | 106.9 | 103.4 | 104 |
| 2016 | 105.1 | 110.3 | 109 | 103.7 | 104.8 |
| 2017 | 105.6 | 111.7 | 110.8 | 103.9 | 105.6 |
| 2018 | 105.9 | 113 | 112.1 | 104.1 | 106.2 |
| 2019 | 106 | 114.3 | 113.3 | 104.1 | 106.7 |
| 2020 | 105.9 | 115.8 | 114.6 | 103.6 | 107.2 |
| 2021 | 104.9 | 117.2 | 115.9 | 102.1 | 107.3 |
| 2022 | 104.8 | 119.3 | 119 | 101.5 | 108 |
| 2023 | 105 | 121.7 | 121.7 | 101.9 | 108.8 |
| 2024 | 105.5 | 124.1 | 123.5 | 103 | 109.9 |
| 2025 | 105.4 | 125.6 | 124.5 | 103 | 110.5 |
Those who stayed got richer, after prices
If fewer additional people are arriving, are the people already there worse off? Price-adjusted incomes say no, at least on average. BEA’s real per capita personal income puts each state’s income into constant 2017 dollars using regional price parities, so California’s expensive housing is not ignored. From 2008 to 2024, that measure rose 43.9 percent in California, to $63,028, compared with 29.2 percent for the United States ($59,195), 32.9 percent for New York ($64,153), 32.1 percent for Florida ($57,131) and 26.4 percent for Texas ($58,219). The California line jumped during the pandemic, cooled in 2022, and by 2024 was still the strongest of this group on a 2008 baseline. These are averages. They mix wages, proprietors’ income, dividends, interest, rent and transfers, then divide by every resident, including children. They are not proof that a typical renter is thriving, and they are not a billionaire series.
Prices remain the other half of the argument. In 2024, California’s all-items regional price parity was 110.7 — about 11 percent above the national average. New York was 107.9, Florida 103.4, Texas 97.1. Housing is the sharp edge: California’s housing RPP was 154.3, against 122.1 in Florida and 96.5 in Texas. Plot 2024 prices against real per capita income and the four states do not line up as a simple “cheap equals poor, expensive equals rich” diagonal. New York combined high prices with the highest real per capita income of the four. California was the most expensive and close behind New York on real income. Texas was cheaper than the nation and still below California on real per capita income. A founder who moves to Austin may buy a larger house. That is not the same as California having already lost the income that a wealth tax would try to tap.
California already taxes personal income at a scale that dwarfs many states’ entire budgets. In 2024, state government income taxes paid by California residents were $124.7 billion, or 3.67 percent of personal income, compared with $54.6 billion and 3.21 percent in New York. Texas and Florida recorded zero, as expected in states without a broad individual income tax. The 2024 California take was down from a 2021 peak of 4.45 percent of personal income, a reminder that capital-gains-heavy tax collections swing. A one-time tax on net worth above $1 billion is a different base, aimed at a different slice of people, and BEA data cannot score it. What the accounts can score is the ground under the fight: a state that is still one of the world’s large economies, whose population growth has lagged the Sun Belt alternatives, whose remaining residents have seen faster real per capita income growth than the nation, and which already runs a large income tax. The wealth-tax debate is about whether to put another instrument on that base, not about whether the base is gone.
Real per capita personal income, 2008–2024
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| year | California | Texas | Florida | New_York | United_States |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2009 | 96.8 | 94.1 | 95.3 | 98.6 | 96.5 |
| 2010 | 99.3 | 95.7 | 98.8 | 101.4 | 97.8 |
| 2011 | 102.4 | 101.3 | 100 | 102.4 | 100.3 |
| 2012 | 105.4 | 103.2 | 99.8 | 105.3 | 102.1 |
| 2013 | 104.7 | 102.7 | 97.7 | 104.3 | 101.2 |
| 2014 | 108.4 | 106.3 | 101.3 | 106.9 | 104 |
| 2015 | 114.3 | 106.3 | 105.6 | 110.1 | 107.8 |
| 2016 | 118.3 | 103.5 | 106.6 | 112 | 108.8 |
| 2017 | 120.1 | 108.4 | 111.3 | 117.4 | 111.3 |
| 2018 | 122.2 | 111.9 | 115.4 | 119.3 | 114 |
| 2019 | 127.7 | 113.6 | 120.5 | 121.7 | 117.2 |
| 2020 | 137 | 115.4 | 124.6 | 126.8 | 123.3 |
| 2021 | 144.7 | 122.5 | 131.3 | 132.7 | 129.6 |
| 2022 | 135 | 122.5 | 127.5 | 128.6 | 124.6 |
| 2023 | 137.3 | 125.3 | 129.8 | 130.7 | 126.8 |
| 2024 | 143.9 | 126.4 | 132.1 | 132.9 | 129.2 |
Prices versus real per capita income, 2024
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| state | rpp | real_pcpi | real_pcpi_thousands |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | 110.7 | 63028 | 63.03 |
| New York | 107.9 | 64153 | 64.15 |
| Florida | 103.4 | 57131 | 57.13 |
| Texas | 97.1 | 58219 | 58.22 |
Sources and methods
This is retrospective enrichment using pinned BEA snapshots, not a reconstruction of what was knowable on the 2026-08-16 edition date. Later releases and revisions may be present.
Research was run on 2026-09-11 against catalogue extracts from bea_regional_state_annual (release bea-regional-state-annual-2026-04-09; snapshot created 2026-08-31) and bea_regional_prices (release bea-rpp-2026-02-19; snapshot created 2026-08-31).
Observation periods used: calendar years 2000–2025 for annual personal income, real GDP and population; 2008–2024 for real per capita personal income and regional price parities; 2000–2024 for state government income taxes. Taxes and RPPs are not published through 2025 in these extracts.
Personal income is residence-based and measured in millions of current dollars. Real GDP is production-based, millions of chained 2017 dollars. Population is midyear residents. Real per capita personal income is in constant 2017 dollars after regional price parities. RPPs are indexes with the U.S. equal to 100. State income taxes are thousands of current dollars; shares of personal income convert taxes from thousands and income from millions into percent. Texas and Florida zeros are reported values, not missing data.
California’s share of U.S. totals uses BEA United States as the denominator. Population and real-income indexes use 2010 = 100 and 2008 = 100 respectively. Comparisons are limited to California, Texas, Florida, New York and the United States; they are descriptive and not a ranking of all 50 states.
BEA personal income is not household income, not a billionaire wealth register, and not IRS migration. No causal effect of a wealth tax, of housing costs, or of interstate moves is inferred. Aggregate dollars are not household averages. Missing observations were not treated as zero except where the source reports zero.
Research completed 2026-09-11, for the August 16, 2026 news edition. This is retrospective analysis, not a reconstruction of information available that day.